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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting


Ian

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH WILL BE A HIGH
IMPACT WINTER STORM FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SFC ANLYS SHOWS LOW PRES HAS MOVED E OF MYR. THE LOW WILL
INENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO HAT BY 06Z...AND ENE OF ORF BY 12Z SAT.

SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA. THE OVERNIGHT HRS WL FEATURE INTENSE
SNOWFALL. NO VEHICLES XCPT PLOWS AND EMERGENCY SHOULD BE ON ROADS
TNGT/SAT.

DUAL POL RDR SHOWS AN AREA OF IP/SG BTWN CHO AND RIC. BLV AS IT
TRACKS N INTO THE COLDER AIR (PER 00Z IAD SNDG) THIS WL REVERT
BACK TO SN.

STORM IS STILL REALLY GETTING GOING...AND WE`VE SEEN SOME 7-8"
AMTS IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. BLV AS THIS WORKS N ALONG THE CST
SNOW AND WINDS WL INTENSIFY. SREF SHOWS SNFL INTENSIFYING AFTR
MDNGT...AND CONTINUING TO BE VERY HVY THRU AT LEAST NOON SAT.

WINDS OVR THE BAY/TIDAL PTMC HV BEEN GUSTING 35-40 MPH. IAD AND
BWI VWP SHOW THE LO LVL WIND FIELD STRENGTHENING FM THE NE - A
TRUE NOR`EASTER. WINDS WL BECOME AN EVEN GRTR CONCERN AFTR
MDNGT..ESPECIALLY IN THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA.

WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH GUSTS 60 TO 65 MPH EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY WHILE
THE COASTAL LOW REMAINS NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. HEAVY SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
BLOWING SNOW AND SNOW WILL CAUSE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. THE HIGH
WIND WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT SNOWFALL RATES WILL DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW FINALLY STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

SNOW SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD END OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OUT TO
SEA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH...BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS MOST AREAS AND 30 TO 40 MPH FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR THE BAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 24
TO 30 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO AREAS
AROUND INTERSTATE 81. 12 TO 18 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND WHERE SLEET MAY MIX IN AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE PRECIP TOTALS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT WATCH OUT FOR A RE-FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
DROPPING WELL BELOW FREEZING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS TO BE ABOVE FREEZING.

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SHORT TERM FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

843 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

MDZ013-014-016>018-VAZ050>053-055>057-230315-

CALVERT-ST. MARYS-CHARLES-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-KING

GEORGE-STAFFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS

PARK-CULPEPER-FAIRFAX-SPOTSYLVANIA-ORANGE-

843 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...

AS OF 840 PM...HEAVIER SNOW WAS OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND

EAST-CENTRAL VIRGINIA. SNOWFALL RATES WILL EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR

AND VISIBILITY WILL DROP TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. NEAR THE OPEN

TIDAL WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH

ARE BEGINNING TO CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL

GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

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I haven't seen any of those heavy  rates that were advertised for the western areas this evening.  The last hour has really been nothing but pixie dust.  Not even worth going out to try and measure.  I have lots of wind, but very little snow the last hour.  My measure area has been compromised by the wind, so it's going to be very tough to get anything meaningful from this point.

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For it be considered an official "climatic" snowfall observation for historical records, you can't sum up more than 4 snowfall measurements within a 24 hour period, or once per 6 hours.  You can certainly report hourly accums, but official totals should be kept to summing up 6 hr amounts to account for settling. Summing up hourly amounts will lead to inflated numbers which will not be accepted by NWS as an official snowfall climate observation.  This happened in Montague NY in 1997, when a lake effect storm of 77" was not officially accepted as a national record because the observer summed up 6 separate snowfall measurements within 24 hrs. So clear your snowboard no more than once per 6 hrs.

 

Happy measuring!

Bingo

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