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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting


Ian

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Steady snow, 20 degrees, NNE winds gusting to 26 mph. Drifting is evident. Noticed some quarter inch graupels mixed in with the snowflakes. I remember one of the mets mention a rime layer below the dendritic growth layer yesterday while we were all examining the model runs.

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61 at Hatteras, SE winds 30-40 -- development potential looks awesome to me. 1.89" (measured earlier, daily record) rain at ATL has turned to wet snow, Just two clues in the puzzle, cold air holding strong, sky's the limit on this snowstorm.

 

RIC probably will oscillate all night with bands shifting but I think they will settle into heavy snow by morning.

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Exactly... that is beyond the predictability of the high resolution guidance. However, the fact that you see such an impressive band run after run gives you confidence it will develop at some point, and somebody is in for near record accumulations, and possibly >3" per hour snowfall rates. 

 

It may be more useful to think of it probabilistically... where a large region in N VA, MD, and PA has the chance (30-50%) of getting under the 3" per hour snowfall band. As the band begins to set up, it will become more clear who really is going to jackpot from this event.

 

This guidance is available from the NCAR ensemble, which showed the highest probabilities of such a band off to the north and west of DC metro... but DC proper still has a 20-30% chance of getting under it. 

 

url: http://www.image.ucar.edu/wrfdart/ensemble/images.php?d=2016012200&f=snow_neprob_3.0&r=MATL

 

snow_neprob_3.0_f039_MATL.png

 

that's usually the case because of the steady increase in elevation to the northwest from the fall line between dc and bmore.  i think part of that is just due to the orographics of this region, but i could be wrong.

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Yes, that's where it always is no matter what the models show. They always jackpot unless it is a southern storm that is already fringing DCA. A huge band will set up over the northern tier tomorrow and dump for hours and hours while DCA and SE gets moderate snow. Eventually the band will swing through and give DC some sloppy seconds but by that time it will have blown its load.

 

If the storm kicks out a bit further east, that area will too. Just my guess based on what I see.

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