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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting


Ian

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I'm really jealous for you guys... the latest HRRR run basically shows the dream scenario for DC and DC suburbs where an intense frontogenetical band sets up and pivots right over KIAD and points SW-NE. Easy to see where its 20" inch amounts are coming from the next 15 hours.

URL: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#diag

fgen.gif

That's my back yard... I'm so excited

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not gonna lie, breeze is kicking up.  i'm legitimately concerned about power going out.  the wind, this early in the storm, is taking me by surprise.  will only get more wicked.  

 

blizzard warning seems like a very good call at this point.  this is a big deal storm.

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Thanks for the post :)  I am really learning alot from you and Coastal tonight

 

 

Beautiful Phil.

 

 

Thanks for your insight. Great to read that!

 

Thanks guys!

 

The latest HRRR run 23z show's though there is still significant run to run variability. This run, the strongest band is positioned 20-30km further north and west, so the heaviest amounts end up further away from the metro area. Again everyone is likely getting slammed, but it could the difference between event totals near 20" versus event totals 30"+

 

url: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#diag 

 

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8 pm ob - 2 inches - .75 in last hour - so much better rates. Still waiting for fatter flakes and harder rates to arrive.

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Real nice stuff building just to the south. We're about to get pounded. Wind was whipping out there too. That surprised me. It came whipping through the woods as some heavy snow was rolling. It snowing in sheets out there.
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SUMMARY...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN   VA INTO EASTERN WV AND WESTERN MD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOWFALL   RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HR /WITH LOCALIZED RATES UPWARDS OF 2-3   INCHES PER HR/ WILL BE POSSIBLE.   DISCUSSION...WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC   SUGGEST A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE MCD AREA IN   RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AS AN IMPULSE OVER THE   SRN APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE   MATURING UPPER TROUGH. STRENGTHENING WAA AT LOW/MID LEVELS...IN   COMBINATION WITH ENHANCED FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS...WILL FAVOR A   BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...LAST   VISIBLE IMAGES PRIOR TO NIGHTFALL INDICATED SMALL CONVECTIVE   ELEMENTS WITHIN THIS GROWING SNOW BAND...FAVORING ENHANCED RATES.   DUAL-POL ZDR AND KDP DATA FROM KFCX CONFIRM THAT DEEPER/STRONGER   CRYSTAL GENERATION ALOFT IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION...IN RESPONSE   TO INCREASING ASCENT WITHIN THE -10 TO -20 C LAYER. KRLX ALSO   DEPICTS SUCH SIGNATURES TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST. EFFICIENT CRYSTAL   GENERATION AND THEN AGGREGATION BENEATH THAT LAYER WILL FAVOR VERY   HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...WITH LOCALIZED RATES UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES PER   HOUR AND LOW VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0055.html

 

 

Hell yeah. Bring it!

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