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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting


Ian

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You can get huge dendrites, ie powder, with very cold temps. Its all about UVV, and temps in the snow growth region.

 

yea i just mean like small flakes, but a lot of them lol.  i don't mind bigger flakes mixed in.  overall, i prefer powdery snow though and so far this is that.

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This first stuff is classic leading edge mid level WAA/fronto stuff as shown in SPC mesoanalysis.

 

 

post-33-0-70880200-1453507750_thumb.jpg

 

However look SW. This is where our good theta-e injection is happening with good LLJ and WAA near 850.

 

post-33-0-76763700-1453507395_thumb.jpg

 

 

This area will get entrained into the mid level circulations and aid in heavy snow later tonight and tomorrow as the 800-600 back bent WF develops.

 

post-33-0-89548900-1453507437_thumb.jpg

 

 

With the dryslot moving in, as you can see by - LIs moving into the bay, there may be some TSSN in spots tomorrow..especially if the mid levels really go to town.

 

post-33-0-31037300-1453507578_thumb.jpg

 

ALl in all, I expect quite the wake up tomorrow in the DC=BWI area.

post-33-0-65095200-1453507316_thumb.jpg

post-33-0-31456300-1453507461_thumb.jpg

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Rates have come way down in Ashburn. Real grainy snow. We are not getting enough lift in the dendritic growth zone. A bit of a concern. Locked at about 3.5 inches.

 

Agreed! The growth region is fairly large so it must be insufficient lift. Hopefully that will change as the night progresses. I wish I had BUFKIT so I can compare an omega/time/temperature cross section to see if this was expected.

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This first stuff is classic leading edge mid level WAA/fronto stuff as shown in SPC mesoanalysis.

H7fronto.JPG

However look SW. This is where our good theta-e injection is happening with good LLJ and WAA near 850.

850ADV.JPG

This area will get entrained into the mid level circulations and aid in heavy snow later tonight and tomorrow as the 800-600 back bent WF develops.

7fronto.JPG

With the dryslot moving in, as you can see by - LIs moving into the bay, there may be some TSSN in spots tomorrow..especially if the mid levels really go to town.

TSSN.JPG

ALl in all, I expect quite the wake up tomorrow in the DC=BWI area.

Wonderful post. I've got that feeling of deja vu! Thanks and good luck up there.
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This first stuff is classic leading edge mid level WAA/fronto stuff as shown in SPC mesoanalysis.

 

 

attachicon.gifH7fronto.JPG

 

However look SW. This is where our good theta-e injection is happening with good LLJ and WAA near 850.

 

attachicon.gif850ADV.JPG

 

 

This area will get entrained into the mid level circulations and aid in heavy snow later tonight and tomorrow as the 800-600 back bent WF develops.

 

attachicon.gif7fronto.JPG

 

 

With the dryslot moving in, as you can see by - LIs moving into the bay, there may be some TSSN in spots tomorrow..especially if the mid levels really go to town.

 

attachicon.gifTSSN.JPG

 

ALl in all, I expect quite the wake up tomorrow in the DC=BWI area.

Thanks! Nice post. I may be close enough to get some dry slot aided elevated convection. I will flirt with the dry slot if I can get thunder snow ;)

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