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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting


Ian

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I think people expected sleet Saturday w/ the possible dryslot/lull. People are freaking out about sleet now because they know that the overnight period is our main mauling and any sleet could cut down on their totals significantly. 

Well it remains to be seen if sleet works its way north. Hardly a surprise it is sleeting in Richmond at this point, as the the low is pretty close. I mean, most models I looked at had the 850 layer warming there for a time.

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Def over 3" in Germantown when I went out for a nice walk. Beautiful out. The meat and potatoes isn't until tonight. Radar looks great

Plus...isn't it generally a given that there will be subsidence between the bigger more intense bands? Radar looks quite "bandy" to me as it should - radar to the south looks very good. 

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Rates have come way down in Ashburn. Real grainy snow. We are not getting enough lift in the dendritic growth zone. A bit of a concern. Locked at about 3.5 inches.

Maybe this will help? It looks like there would be a little more afterwards with the wrap-around.

acsnw_t3esblmn_f23.png

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Sleet line may continue to move north for a while but it'll slow and pivot when the coastal really cranks. Not worried here. Sorry about RIC :(

It's easy to fret over the sleet line, but I agree with you, even in regards to RIC.

3.75" as of 6:40 pm. That makes 1.75" in the last three hours. Looking toward to real rates!

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This is true- I remember everyone on accuweather was freaking out the night of Feb. 5 cause the mix line was getting really close to DC, but it never happened.

 

yea never made it through the city.  was in bethesda and whiile it was a wet snow the first part of the night, i don't remember hearing any sleet.  also, if you look at the water vapor imagery you can see this storm is running into a wall.  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html.  we're sandwiched in between and everything seems to be consolidating right over us.  the sleet line may make it close, or maybe even here, but may not last if it does.  could be wrong on that, but just my general thoughts on that idea.

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Measured between 3 and 4'' here [unofficial measurement - with a ruler measuring at different level-grounded areas]. So that translates to ~.5-.8 inch/hr rates. I think that's pretty good given how early it is.

 

Temperature at the nearest wxbug station- Sherwood high- is 20 F.

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