Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,604
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting


Ian

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

LWX afternoon AFD

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
244 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OF THE JET ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH IS FEEDING IN COLD AIR ACROSS OUR REGION...AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY DEEPENING NEAR THE ALABAMA-GEORGIA LINE.
SNOW HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO THE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA INTO
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND IT WILL CONTINUE SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SYSTEM BEING
WELL TO OUR SOUTH...STRONG JET DYNAMICS WELL AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...AN OVERRUNNING COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SNOW TO ACCUMULATE
QUICKLY RIGHT AFTER THE ONSET TIME.

BY 7 PM...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA INTO EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST
SOUTH OF BALTIMORE INTO CENTRAL MARYLAND. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF BALTIMORE.


THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY NEAR THE NORTH-CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
COAST DURING THIS TIME. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR HEAVY
SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...STRONG EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET...OVERRUNNING...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN
. THE PTYPE WILL BE SNOW.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARM AIR FOR SLEET TO MIX IN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE RAPIDLY
TONIGHT DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS
AS WELL AS THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED UNDER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS WELL. SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED...BUT LEANED TOWARD A WINTER STORM WARNING
SINCE FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE NOT EXPECTED.

WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH GUSTS 60 TO 65 MPH EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY
WHILE THE COASTAL LOW REMAINS NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. HEAVY
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF BLOWING SNOW AND SNOW WILL CAUSE WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY
FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT SNOWFALL RATES
WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW FINALLY STARTS TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA.

SNOW SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD END OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OUT TO
SEA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH...BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS MOST AREAS AND 30 TO 40 MPH FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR THE BAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 24
TO 30 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO AREAS
AROUND INTERSTATE 81. 12 TO 18 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND WHERE SLEET MAY MIX IN AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE PRECIP TOTALS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH.


HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT WATCH OUT FOR A RE-FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
DROPPING WELL BELOW FREEZING.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...