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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting


Ian

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i think for us we'll be ok, but it's definitely pretty visible to the farther sw locations.  and agreed, almost all the big ones have a dryslot/lull/period of blah, then it fills back in as the upper level low approaches.

That dry slot won't even sniff us.  If we get dry slotted it's tomorrow afternoon when the coastal is in gear.

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Looking at the Weathertap radar from LWX, Fairfax County is in a clear snow-hole with snow showing up in every direction, including north of DC.  So far not a flake, 10 mi south of National Airport.

Lol, it always does this at the start of a major storm. It really doesn't matter though, we're all getting pummeled. 

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Looking at the Weathertap radar from LWX, Fairfax County is in a clear snow-hole with snow showing up in every direction, including north of DC.  So far not a flake, 10 mi south of National Airport.

 

Its all virga over us right now.  Snow line is down near 95/495 split and west out to Dulles.  There is no snow in or north of the city right now.

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Looking at the Weathertap radar from LWX, Fairfax County is in a clear snow-hole with snow showing up in every direction, including north of DC. So far not a flake, 10 mi south of National Airport.

That's not snow on the radar. It isn't supposed to be snowing there yet that's why it isn't, it's still to your SW.

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First post for long time lurker, I am in the Gaithersburg area near Laytonsville so still waiting for first flakes.  Just noticed SPC has delivered us the inevitable first (of many?) MD's:

 

Mesoscale Discussion 51 < Previous MD mcd0051.gif
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1134 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV...WV PANHANDLE...NRN VA...AND MOST OF MD   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 221734Z - 222230Z   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR   TWO WITH SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. THESE HEAVY   SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MUCH OF ERN   WV...NRN VA...AND MD HAS REMAINED MOSTLY PRECIPITATION FREE OVER THE   PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERAL OF THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE   REPORTED A QUICK TRANSITION FROM NO PRECIPITATION TO HEAVY   SNOWFALL...INCLUDING EKN IN ERN WV AND SHD...CHO...AND OMH IN NWRN   VA. GIVEN PRECIPITATION FREE REGION TO THE SW OF THE MD AREA IS NOT   EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEWD...THIS TYPE OF QUICK TRANSITION FROM NO   PRECIPITATION TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE   MD AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SNOWFALL RATES OVER 1 INCH PER   HOUR ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED AREAS WITH RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR.   CONSTANT...AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING...LIFT WILL FAVOR THE   PERSISTENCE OF THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.   ..MOSIER.. 01/22/2016   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...PBZ...RLX...   LAT...LON   38357949 38467989 38678047 38838090 39268099 39538074               39707999 39697908 39717787 39537708 39207646 38547568               37727551 37567628 37877721 38207844 38357949 
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