hartweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Snow has been pretty steady here in Asheville. Looks to be around 7 I guess and wind is really gusty at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The ignorance in this complaint thread is strong this morning. I hope y'all don't have important jobs where you must make life and death decisions on a daily basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 From what I've read RDU and GSP are backing off.. You calling them out also? link to RDU backing off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yeah to Colorado. A coworker said she's getting snow in Greer. I'm thinking it's just bad dandruff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just fine. I guess you should say something about RAH calling for 4 to 6, and Allan calling for 3 to 7, too. They were too high as well. Allan already said that. So did the NWS. I had 1-2" and I was too high as well. We all busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The ignorance in this complaint thread is strong this morning. I hope y'all don't have important jobs where you must make life and death decisions on a daily basis. Really!! After all these years on Eastern Talkwx American Wx youd think ppl might learn something. Guess not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 For those calling out ignorance, could you give details/info? I know it's a little more work. I notice the main storm thread has also gone pretty quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheels2 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Word is WRAL is now calling this an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Mack, snow is expected due to wrap around moisture - not sure when that will begin - in Greenville County, everything south of downtown Greenville is primarily rain - I'm about 3 miles south of downtown Greenville - have had sleet and freezing rain this AM - trees lightly coated - had a sleet covered yard early this morning - now, slowly melting awayI'm a little more South of you. W Georgia road area, and it's been all heavy rain! Yard is full of puddles, temp won't budge from 33.1! Been there an hour and a half! Maybe it will stop for awhile and let the air cool before next round!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 For those complaing about the dryslot in NC. Its not a dryslot. The dryslot atm if you just look at WV loop is from NW Ga down into AL. Besides the main snow producer is the ULL over MS. Still plenty of time so dont jump off the cliff. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Well, the 500 mb low is underperforming right now. Models had it closed off at this point and it has yet to close off. I said it last night a lot of people are going to bust on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 A coworker said she's getting snow in Greer. I'm thinking it's just bad dandruff.TR, Greer,Spartanburg , all had enough snow to whiten grass and roads this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I likely won't do any more damage control so this is it. For central NC, this is trending towards a bad ice storm, as expected. The high snow totals on some call maps were based on the fact that we could hold off on the sleet to start and actually get some nice banding of snow, that didn't happen so cut those totals in half. The snow we will get will be on the backside, so 1-2" or so. The dry areas you see is not a dry slot, plenty of RH over the area at upper levels and as the low transfers, the moisture will pick up and pull into Wake Co, very heavy ZR I suspect is on the way. We could see upward of 0.5-0.75+ ice, maybe even 0.85" or so. This storm is trending towards an absolutely crippling system as far as impacts are concerned. For those in Raleigh who wanted 6" of powder, you should have been paying attention to the posts that were concerned about sleet (I made one yesterday to burger saying we will only get either a ton of IP or a ton of ZR, not snow). It's 9am, ZR likely won't stop until after 10pm or later. Good luck and stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's going to be difficult to get any significant snow and sleet accums around the Triangle area for now. Too much warm air aloft. An ice storm is developing. The northern zones should see more in the way of ZR as the day wears on. Obviously, the farther north and west, the better chance of staying sleet longer. Also, it is premature to worry about dry-slotting, all kidding aside. Not saying we shouldn't keep an eye on it. But we'll need to monitor how the transfer takes shape and how it evolves from there. Right now, the precip is spotty. There are no guarantees either way. We'll have to watch the trends through the day and hope it either stays spotty or the temps warm above freezing, so we can avoid major power problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Good post, Jon. Do you think temps can climb above freezing around Raleigh later today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Low hasn't transferred yet, tons of moisture on the way. Party will start after noon, speaking for NC.Parties over for GA and SC, weak wedge, over modeled cad , FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ray just dropped his totals for all. Mtns went from 18-24 down to 16-20....I'll eat my shoe if we get to 16" it's not happening. What a bust. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I likely won't do any more damage control so this is it. For central NC, this is trending towards a bad ice storm, as expected. The high snow totals on some call maps were based on the fact that we could hold off on the sleet to start and actually get some nice banding of snow, that didn't happen so cut those totals in half. The snow we will get will be on the backside, so 1-2" or so. The dry areas you see is not a dry slot, plenty of RH over the area at upper levels and as the low transfers, the moisture will pick up and pull into Wake Co, very heavy ZR I suspect is on the way. We could see upward of 0.5-0.75+ ice, maybe even 0.85" or so. This storm is trending towards an absolutely crippling system as far as impacts are concerned. For those in Raleigh who wanted 6" of powder, you should have been paying attention to the posts that were concerned about sleet (I made one yesterday to burger saying we will only get either a ton of IP or a ton of ZR, not snow). It's 9am, ZR likely won't stop until after 10pm or later. Good luck and stay safe. For eastern NC I agree that's the potential. I don't think that will be the case for Western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ray just dropped his totals for all. Mtns went from 18-24 down to 16-20....I'll eat my shoe if we get to 16" it's not happening. What a bust. I think the southern escarpment can still get to 16 inches. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ray just dropped his totals for all. Mtns went from 18-24 down to 16-20....I'll eat my shoe if we get to 16" it's not happening. What a bust. I think the southern escarpment can still get to 16 inches. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk see my post in the mtn thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 I will never trust the GFS again. It is dead to me. I am writing my congressman a letter to defund it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Good post, Jon. Do you think temps can climb above freezing around Raleigh later today? Thanks, you too. No telling man. We could stay just at freezing and that would be my hunch based on current data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I will never trust the GFS again. It is dead to me. I am writing my congressman a letter to defund it. Truly living up to your username Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I will never trust the GFS again. It is dead to me. I am writing my congressman a letter to defund it.Chris Justus says don't give up! Saying heavy snow between 5-9 pm tonight! Back end, comma head I guess!? You know how that works out! I'm glad I saw snow Wed, cause I don't think we will today !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like I'm not changing my user name or buying lunch ! But wait, blocking and pattern still looks great next week and fab feb coming! Just a kick in the sack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well guys I chickened out and went to TN. I'm between knoxville and Nashville and its been raining the whole time. #snowchasefail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 link to RDU backing off? Backing off there totals some, someone posted way back somewhere? IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well guys I chickened out and went to TN. I'm between knoxville and Nashville and its been raining the whole time. #snowchasefail You should just give up on the whole "I'm gonna chase snow!" Thing. Or grow a pair... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 When local weather stations use their future cast radar, what model is that? How accurate is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well guys I chickened out and went to TN. I'm between knoxville and Nashville and its been raining the whole time. #snowchasefail#PUSS@ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sorry, might have been too bullish on my ice totals (got a bit excited and NAM'd) but 0.5"+ for RDU is a safe bet and that hasn't changed. You never know how much precip will be forced up into the area and how early we transfer to ZR. It will be either not that bad or crippling (lol)... Models won't tell you really how much, you have to just watch radar trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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