DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 ouch wnc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Love the last minute warm trends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm North of 85 and Mack usually does better than me. Promise there's nothing magical about it. It's the state line that's magical! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 there is more than one radar folks and some do show the deep fetch going into the gul well below the tex/mex vorder and one at least is showing snow nw of shreveport right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Love the last minute warm trends! marginal high, strong coastal right on the coast its kinda been in the cards the whole time at least RDU east.....we need a miracle trend SE with the SLP and its unlikely to happen....in fact its more likely to go NW more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 ouch wnc that Upstate ice looks ferocious - of course, it's north of I-85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 What the heck has gotten into the NAM?? I need some real insight into the thinking around the warm nose. It was a single layer for a short duration earlier today. Now it is more pronounced. Is it because our storm is stronger? If so, why wouldnt the Euro and GFS pick up on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Where do I go to jump off the weenie cliff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ok I give up, some of you NC'ers most have got your hands on an NAM run from July. 850s and 2Ms look fine for the vast majority of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's good to start a thread, then have a mod start the exact same thread an hour later and pin it! Classy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So when is the NAM's coronation? Somebody's going to have to have a talk with the EURO - it's not going to be happy about giving up its crown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Where do I go to jump off the weenie cliff?Do it with class, go to falls park bridge! You might see me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ok I give up, some of you NC'ers most have got your hands on an NAM run from July. 850s and 2Ms look fine for the vast majority of the state. Some people just like bitching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Do it with class, go to falls park bridge! You might see me I live just a few blocks from there. What time you wanna meet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 marginal high, strong coastal right on the coast its kinda been in the cards the whole time at least RDU east.....we need a miracle trend SE with the SLP and its unlikely to happen....in fact its more likely to go NW more Yup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Current NAM is too north and also quite wacky! Discard and do not consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I live just a few blocks from there. What time you wanna meet? Let's all hold hands and go down together. The water should be plenty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I live just a few blocks from there. What time you wanna meet?When's the next NAM run? 10 minutes after that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 marginal high, strong coastal right on the coast its kinda been in the cards the whole time at least RDU east.....we need a miracle trend SE with the SLP and its unlikely to happen....in fact its more likely to go NW moreBeen my thoughts for 2 days. Cad wasn't near stout enough to do work at least down to here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Um, the 00z NAM isn't much different than the 18z NAM... We already knew the NAM was warmer than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yup! Wedge versus weak over running equals wedge that stays in place longer than modeled Wedge versus strong surface low close to coast equals wedge that goes poof faster than modeled For what ever reason the models see it backwards they scrub out a wedge to fast with weak over running and dig it in when there is a strong SLP on the coast.....there is still plenty of time and plenty of cold air in place over NC so its to early to worry just yet in your neck of the woods but you really want to see the southern piece stay south and faster and not hook up with the ULL till it get another 100-150 miles further east at least than what is currently modeled...maybe all that convection down there will anchor the low ad drag it more east and not let it go that far north......it would require the models to be pretty off in the very near range though for that to happen so....one caveat would be the front end thump getting in here quicker if we can get that in here in the next 8-12 hrs it could be a quick 3-5" snow for you and even a few inches for me....before the coastal gets going and scrubs the cold out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Um, the 00z NAM isn't much different than the 18z NAM... We already knew the NAM was warmer than the other models. It's definitely a huge difference for AVL. Probably not for GSO, but it was for us. It's probably way too far north. Out of region meteorologists doesn't seem to buy this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The NAM cleaned us out good just like a laxative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's definitely a huge difference for AVL. Probably not for GSO, but it was for us. It's probably way too far north. Out of region meteorologists doesn't seem to buy this. It actually is here, too, now that I look more into it. 750-800 mb torches after a few hours. Hmm. Raging sleet fest after a few inches of snow to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 My complaint? Calling the storm a bust SIX ****ING HOURS BEFORE ITS SUPPOSED TO UNFOLD. People should be drawn and quartered for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wedge versus weak over running equals wedge that stays in place longer than modeled Wedge versus strong surface low close to coast equals wedge that goes poof faster than modeled For what ever reason the models see it backwards they scrub out a wedge to fast with weak over running and dig it in when there is a strong SLP on the coast.....there is still plenty of time and plenty of cold air in place over NC so its to early to worry just yet in your neck of the woods but you really want to see the southern piece stay south and faster and not hook up with the ULL till it get another 100-150 miles further east at least than what is currently modeled...maybe all that convection down there will anchor the low ad drag it more east and not let it go that far north......it would require the models to be pretty off in the very near range though for that to happen so....one caveat would be the front end thump getting in here quicker if we can get that in here in the next 8-12 hrs it could be a quick 3-5" snow for you and even a few inches for me....before the coastal gets going and scrubs the cold out. That's a really good post and really illustrates all of the dynamics involved here. Lots of possibilities on the table, but without a strong high, I'm always somewhat suspicious. It's why my guess was not crazy high for this area. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I smell another bust for the Greenville area! I swear man, we'd be better off using the 1982 weather technology than what we have today. Bring back Charlie Gertz!!! You longtime Greenville folks know who I'm talking about. He didn't have all these computer Models to forecast from, but I swear he did better than the Mets we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well FWIW, the HRRR still seems pretty excited about tomorrow. And with that, I'm going to bed. Good luck all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Would have been hard for some to be around back in the day. My complaint? Calling the storm a bust SIX ****ING HOURS BEFORE ITS SUPPOSED TO UNFOLD. People should be drawn and quartered for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ladies and gentlemen, The post-NAM cliff diving may now commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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