STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

[BristowWx]

Zoomed in version from behind the paywall:

 

That looks like 30-33 for DCA and due west. Not sure what more we need

[NorthArlington101]

Zoomed in version from behind the paywall:

 

High-res model thinks that those Boston totals are insane, looks similar (maybe more reasonable) for our area though 

[clueless]

It is the NAM.  Hi-RES where it's at.

[WhiteoutMD]

Can you post that info?

 

NAM nest is noticeably southeast with the precip shield relative to the parent.   When the nest differs like that, it's almost always the right solution.      For us, this would result in us probably not getting dry slotted during Saturday.

[brettjrob]

FWIW, NAM totals using Kuchera ratios instead of 10:1:

 

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM&p=accsnow&rh=2016012200&fh=60&r=ma&dpdt=

 

And 4km NAM:

 

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM-4km&p=accsnow&rh=2016012200&fh=60&r=ma&dpdt=

[yoda]

RGEM deform band is awesome -- http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[Snowman.]

Hi Res NAM destroys NW VA.. Winchester over 3'.

[Raven94]

RGEM deform band is awesome -- http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Deforms the whole area Amazing how different the NAM and RGEM are for being high res 

[Bob Chill]

RGEM makes sense given the envelope we've seen for days. Nam does not. RGEM is prob too juiced but the progression is supermodel style

[MDstorm]

Deforms the whole area Amazing how different the NAM and RGEM are for being high res

That's because the NAM is still about 12-24 outside of its wheelhouse .

[Casualbrain]

A lot of juice - latest level III nexrad image
radar2.mov

[Inudaw]

It is only showing the 18Z are you sure the 0Z is out already?.

 

ETA: I can't find the 0Z anywhere i think you are mistaking the 18Z for the 0Z

Before animating.. Change the 18z to 0z... and the date from the 21st to 22nd.  Its there.

[Windman18]

It is only showing the 18Z are you sure the 0Z is out already?.

 

ETA: I can't find the 0Z anywhere i think you are mistaking the 18Z

for the 0Z

It's there. Just change the date to 1/22

[ravensrule]

Before animating.. Change the 18z to 0z... and the date from the 21st to 22nd.  Its there.

 

 

It's there. Just change the date to 1/22

I did that and it wasn't showing and then i cleared my cache and voila it appeared. Thanks guys.

[Bob Chill]

Man, the RGEM is total perfection. 989 off of ORF. Deform is sick. Can't wait to get high resolution precip panels.

[Terpeast]

 

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FCST RMNS IN PLACE. AREA GETTING READY FOR A MAJOR STORM.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF

THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S NEAR

WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

00Z SFC ANLYS SHOWS LOW HAS TRACKED FM LA TO MS BTWN 20Z AND 00Z.

THIS LINES UP WELL W/ SREF DEPICTION. HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD

INTO THE MID ATLC FM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE MID ATLC. THE LOW

IS XPCTD TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE AL/TN BRDR BY MID

MRNG FRI. THIS WL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE MID ATLC FRI

MORNING.

ALTHO I AM NOT A "HUGE ANALOG COMPARISON GUY" BECAUSE EVERY STORM

IS DIFFERENT BUT THIS DOES BEAR SIMILARITIES TO THE PRES DAY

STORM OF FEB `03 IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. MID ATLC RMNS ON THE

COLD SIDE THRUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM.

THE COMBO OF THE COLD AIR BEING DRAWN INTO THE MID ATLC ALONG W/

THE MOISTURE FM THE LOW...PCPN IS XPCTD TO BE PRIMARILY SN THRUT

THIS STORM. PEAK SNOWFALL TIME LOOKS TO BE FM FRI EVE STRAIGHT

THRU LATE AFTN SAT. ERLR WE INCRSD THE TOTALS FOR EVEN LWR ST.

MARY`S TO EXCEED ONE FT. WE GET VERY INVOLVED IN SNOW-TO-LIQUID

RATIOS...BUT ANOTHER PT OF CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BAY...WL

BE THE STRONG LL JET. I`VE SEEN CASES IN STRONG LO LVL WINDS WHERE

THE DENDRITES ARE LITERALLY SMASHED...MAKING IT HARDER TO

ACCUMULATE.

I-95 TO I-81 UPWARDS OF 2 FT ARE FCST.

[MN Transplant]

Man, the RGEM is total perfection. 989 off of ORF. Deform is sick. Can't wait to get high resolution precip panels.

NAM front end plus RGEM deformation and we are looking at Washington/Jefferson totals.

[Bob Chill]

Omg. Someone needs to post RGEM precip and snow from tidbits.

[Snowman.]

[WinterWxLuvr]

While we are waiting on the gfs, someone please explain this Kuchera method I've been seeing.

[yoda]

at all 4 or 5 of us all posting the RGEM

 

Weatherwise, wow... that is silly ridiculous snow accum output

[nj2va]

Holy RGEM.  It's a good short term model and has performed pretty well here over the last few years.  It makes more sense than the NAM given the general area of max precip (i.e Mid Atl) that the models have narrowed in on over the last several days.  

[smokeybandit]

While we are waiting on the gfs, someone please explain this Kuchera method I've been seeing.

I had to google it myself

 

http://www.wxcaster.com/gfssnow.txt

[PhineasC]

Those maps aren't even the whole storm. RGEM is crazy.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I had to google it myself

http://www.wxcaster.com/gfssnow.txt

Thanks.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Isn't the RGEM pretty close to what it was at 18z?

[PhineasC]

Does the low move west from 45 to 48?

[ers-wxman1]

Does the low move west from 45 to 48?

Might be the start of the occlusion. Low deepens back into the cold air.

[DCAlexandria]

Starting to look very knickerbocker like

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[clueless]

Does the low move west from 45 to 48?

 

Kinda.  ??  Strange.