STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

[jburns]

I didn't think it was a big deal, I just wanted to discuss it. Turns out, I'm not allowed to. Because my mailing address is in PA, or something. Even though what happens in MD significantly impacts me, almost as much as what happens in PA.

 

Take 5 days to think about things.

[PhineasC]

2'+ for the region by 10 am sat with lots more to come.

NAM dry slots the eastern areas. So not much more to come. Still a ton of snow though.

[snowfan]

NAM thru 21z sat

2.0 BWI

2.3 DCA

2.8 Winchester

2.1 Westminster

[stormtracker]

WES RADIO SHOW NOW: Thundersnow in DC...4am?

[Grothar of Herndon]

NAM thru 21z sat

2.0 BWI

2.3 DCA

2.8 Winchester

2.1 Westminster

IAD?

[Amped]

LOL NAM curshing the Mass pike where no other model had more than 1".  Why would you take it seriously anywhere?

[lilhill]

NAM thru 21z sat

2.0 BWI

2.3 DCA

2.8 Winchester

2.1 Westminster

What's it looking like for RIC?

[Snowman.]

IAD?

2.6

[nj2va]

NAM QPF

 

 

[Joshfsu123]

NAM QPF

 

That's up 0.5 (half an inch) from 2.0" at 18z --- on the NAM --- at DCA.

[Interstate]

I would be 100% fine with the NAM... 20+ area wide west of the bay.

[Eskimo Joe]

If the waters off the Atlantic weren't so warm I'd give the NAM almost no credence.  BUT, it's possible the the low could tuck further NW.

[Kat]

Hi res nam has more mixing, higher totals clearly west of 95.

[NorthArlington101]

Hi res nam has more mixing, higher totals clearly west of 95.

Haven't heard the folks on the radio show talking about mixing, but if I understand it correctly they did suggest the NAM shows slightly less QPF for the immediate metro area. 

[ers-wxman1]

NAM is a big hit for us. The low still tracks north but very high snowfall rates which will pile up quick. Bullseye is consistent with the GEFS solutions as well. Better run than 18z

[RIC_WX]

    GFS temps do some very wacky things over snow cover.   was a major problem last winter.   haven't been able to evaluate it much so far this winter.    

If those numbers are correct, would there be a freezing fog before sunrise?  Or is the cold surface layer not shallow enough?

[yoda]

NAM is a big hit for us. The low still tracks north but very high snowfall rates which will pile up quick. Bullseye is consistent with the GEFS solutions as well. Better run than 18z

 

Good to hear... NAM has hours upon hours of 1"+ SR

[Amped]

For LOLZ 24" for all of 95 dc to Boston

 

[BristowWx]

Haven't heard the folks on the radio show talking about mixing, but if I understand it correctly they did suggest the NAM shows slightly less QPF for the immediate metro area.

Looked like DCA went up a bit. From 18z. Not sure it matters now.

[high risk]

NAM nest is noticeably southeast with the precip shield relative to the parent.   When the nest differs like that, it's almost always the right solution.      For us, this would result in us probably not getting dry slotted during Saturday.

[ers-wxman1]

For LOLZ 24" for all of 95 dc to Boston

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_060.gif

NESIS scale rating increase.

[BTRWx]

Hi res nam has more mixing, higher totals clearly west of 95.

The surface 0C never reaches I-95.

[Raven94]

To no surprise RGEM is coming in north

[ers-wxman1]

Good to hear... NAM has hours upon hours of 1"+ SR

Saturday AM looks likes period of 2"+ rates. Pretty solid.

[yoda]

To no surprise RGEM is coming in north

 

That is out way early... out to 24

[ers-wxman1]

The NAM's northward movement could lead to less mixing issues since it wouldn't stall and draw warm sst for too long. It gets north and CAA wraps in.

[InstantWeatherMaps]

For LOLZ 24" for all of 95 dc to Boston

 

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_060.gif

Zoomed in version from behind the paywall:

 

[PhineasC]

NAM nest is noticeably southeast with the precip shield relative to the parent.   When the nest differs like that, it's almost always the right solution.      For us, this would result in us probably not getting dry slotted during Saturday.

Thank you for posting this. 

[Raven94]

North but not nearly NAM north lol RGEM 00Z

High to the north is weaker but still shearing precip up north 

[Windman18]

NAM dry slots the eastern areas. So not much more to come. Still a ton of snow though.

Yeah your right. Western areas still pick up another 6" or so. I personally wouldn't buy into the dry slot idea right now.