STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

[DCWeatherGuy]

Impromptu Radio Show tonight with Wes Junker, Matt Ross (westminsterdeathband) and myself co hosting.

 

 

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/americanwx/2016/01/22/american-weather-radio-show-1212016-potential-east-coast-storm

Starting at 9 or 9:30?

[yoda]

FWIW, apparently alot, here are the 21z SREF snow plumes at DCA, IAD, and BWI

 

 

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

I'm with Phin. Over the years the Srefs have a telephone book sized resume of false hope or panic. And then the next good model comes out and fixes the problem. If it agrees with the Sref mean there is more to talk about.

[psuhoffman]

What's the link to see the Sref plumes again?

[Interstate]

I do not know what the big deal is with the SREF... they just expanded the QPF shield further north.

[yoda]

What's the link to see the Sref plumes again?

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

[Amped]

21z SREF super north. So north that the jackpot has moved from MA to CPA. Probably junk, but it's a new twist.

 

 

 

Every SREF ARW member takes the storm to the NY PA border, while no operational model was that far north. I'd ignore it.

 

For all the lurkers in this thread wondering which models to use and which to ignore.

 

Reliable Models:  EURO, GFS, RGEM, UKMET...   More than one of them will be right enough. It's  best to average them or take the majority in case one is out to lunch.

 

 

Unreliable Models:  NAM, 4KNAM, SREF, GGEM, ARW , JMA    6+hr HRRR, anything else run out of someones basement.... Best to ignore these, they have mislead us in the past.

[psuhoffman]

Impromptu Radio Show tonight with Wes Junker, Matt Ross ORHWxman, Dave Tolleris (wxrisk) (westminsterdeathband) and myself co hosting.

Thank you Randy for all the work you put into everything here.

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/americanwx/2016/01/22/american-weather-radio-show-1212016-potential-east-coast-storm

[mappy]

I don't think I have every seriously used the SREF to make a forecast. Ever. It's flawed.

This should be the end of the sref discussion, if you guys want to discuss further, please take it to banter

[Kmlwx]

The NAM is very similar to 18z so far. At 22 hours the closed 540 contour is like a tiny bit wider but that's about it. 

[yoda]

00z NAM in middle of transfer at hr 22

[nj2va]

Start time on the NAM ~2-3 pm in DC

[yoda]

00z NAM

 

994mb SLP over HSE at hr 30

992mb SLP over HSE at hr 31

[Kmlwx]

The H5 contours are very very close. Vorticity (if it matters) seems less messy on the map. But it looks really similar to 18z at H5. 

[yoda]

989mb just SE of entrance to Chesapeake Bay at hr 33

[Expat]

hour 33 on 0z NAM: about 5-6 inches in one hour in NoVa...INSANE RIPPAGE

[yoda]

DCA 1' by 1am... approaching 2' by 7am

 

[stormtracker]

Radio show NOW: Wes talking about NAM...1.75 by 12z in DC.     

[Amped]

NAM Precip went north of it's crazy 18z north outlier run, it's being it's good old self.

 

 

Edit: LOL NAM trying to dryslot us, congrats on your fake snow Birmingham.

[Kmlwx]

It's a randytastic (amped) run for sure. There is an incredible amount of QPF...

Great discussion on the radio show right now. 

[Windman18]

7 am sat. Snowfall

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012200&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036

[Ji]

un nam related but the GFS after the storm shows surface temp of -18C but +2 at 850. Wow

 

MON 06Z 25-JAN -12.3 -0.3 1022 92 67 0.00 558 541
MON 12Z 25-JAN -18.0 2.0 1023 100 38 0.00 561 544 

[donsutherland1]

un nam related but the GFS after the storm shows surface temp of -18C but +2 at 850. Wow

 

MON 06Z 25-JAN -12.3 -0.3 1022 92 67 0.00 558 541

MON 12Z 25-JAN -18.0 2.0 1023 100 38 0.00 561 544 

Is that for IAD? IAD can have some exceptional radiational cooling.

[nj2va]

Loudoun/Winchester etc are getting crushed on the NAM.

[high risk]

    GFS temps do some very wacky things over snow cover.   was a major problem last winter.   haven't been able to evaluate it much so far this winter.    

 

un nam related but the GFS after the storm shows surface temp of -18C but +2 at 850. Wow

 

MON 06Z 25-JAN -12.3 -0.3 1022 92 67 0.00 558 541
MON 12Z 25-JAN -18.0 2.0 1023 100 38 0.00 561 544 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Loudoun/Winchester etc are getting crushed on the NAM.

 

Looks like 2ft by the morning.  It's LOL.

[Snowman.]

FWIW, The NAM has bulls-eyed Western Loudoun/Winchester/WVA panhandle the past few runs 

[Windman18]

2'+ for the region by 10 am sat with lots more to come.

[WEATHER53]

Tuesdsy I posted that I wanted the Baro no lower than 30.25 at 1159 tonight and looks like it will be 30.3ish so thst is solid cold air support. Really do not want to see the low around the mouth of the bay. 50 miles east of Norfolk is better

[Ji]

Is that for IAD? IAD can have some exceptional radiational cooling.

its actually JYO(leesburg) but yes:)