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STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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JonathanW

JonathanW

Posted
Posted

It probably is wise to take a moment and make sure you have enough gas in the generator.

Anyway, GFS 00z will be first.
 

I'm getting close to being done with models unless some new twist develops. Anyone who lives 30 miles from the obvious fringe or mixing zone can do the same for the most part.

We're seeing wobbles and will keep seeing them until game time. Then the storm itself will do its own wobbles in real time. Close to time to just let the chips fall.

With that being said I'm staying up for the euro. Lol

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

 Interested in what Bob eluded to earlier in regards to useful range of the mesoscale models. Curious to see how they setup

 

The mental exercise is to identify the differences between the mesos and globals through about 18-24 hours. 36 hours tops. Then look at obs to the south and see how the meso and globals compare to ground truth. 

 

I'm not sure about big storms like this one but the RGEM has done really well with fine details and QPF maxes inside of 24 hours the last couple years.  The nam does it too sometimes believe it or not. lol

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

I'm getting close to being done with models unless some new twist develops. Anyone who lives 30 miles from the obvious fringe or mixing zone can do the same for the most part.

We're seeing wobbles and will keep seeing them until game time. Then the storm itself will do its own wobbles in real time. Close to time to just let the chips fall.

With that being said I'm staying up for the euro. Lol

 

Ha...I was waiting for this post from you....18z NAM just gave 30" to Danbury, CT...I will keep looking at models :)

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PivotPoint

PivotPoint

Posted
Posted

The mental exercise is to identify the differences between the mesos and globals through about 18-24 hours. 36 hours tops. Then look at obs to the south and see how the meso and globals compare to ground truth. 

 

I'm not sure about big storms like this one but the RGEM has done really well with fine details and QPF maxes inside of 24 hours the last couple years.  The nam does it too sometimes believe it or not. lol

I like where your head's at. In particular, for example, if you begin to see the RGEM more accurately dipict the current conditions into the forecasted 12-18 hr range, but the evolution thereafter starts to diverge from a global like the GFS (which has shown decent consistencies with QPF maxes for this event, albeit with so e questionable distribution).... Do you then start to weigh the RGEM more, or simply blend equally. My thinking is blending is done, correct? It's now about which model has picked up on the event's "signature" so to speak.

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neff

neff

Posted
Posted

SREFs are garbage. Don't trust them, ever.

 

Not saying the output verbatim is legit, but a shift like that seems like it would be indicative of something. What? I don't know. But I don't think it'd just make a shift like that on a whim, and a shift of that magnitude seems like it couldn't be solely attributable to noise.

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
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Not saying the output verbatim is legit, but a shift like that seems like it would be indicative of something. What? I don't know. But I don't think it'd just make a shift like that on a whim, and a shift of that magnitude seems like it couldn't be solely attributable to noise.

I feel like you are trying to incite panic here. The SREFs still give us plenty of snow. It's a trend to watch, but the SREFs aren't what should be used at this range anyways.

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AlaskaETC

AlaskaETC

Posted
Posted

Not saying the output verbatim is legit, but a shift like that seems like it would be indicative of something. What? I don't know. But I don't think it'd just make a shift like that on a whim, and a shift of that magnitude seems like it couldn't be solely attributable to noise.

SREFs can easily do shifts like this, unless the NAM and GFS show something similar, then they are out in lala land I think.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

21z SREF super north. So north that the jackpot has moved from MA to CPA. Probably junk, but it's a new twist.

SREFNE24Precip21054.gif

. You picked a panel that cuts off the first half of the storm for Virginia. They still do fine. It's just a more expansive area of huge totals. Plus bad form to say it that way out of your area.
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