STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

[Deck Pic]

Yes, we had no requests so we set it up over DC. See the map at the link, it shows where the nests are.

 

sweet thanks!

[MillvilleWx]

STRONG agreement with OP aka 18z GFS:

mahboilookatallthissnow.png

That's some of the best agreement for 20+ you'll ever see. Hope SkinsFan saves that one. I like the idea of 24-30" for DC up the 270 corridor. Places like Damascus and areas along Pars Ridge might sneak 30-36" due to elevation.

[nj2va]

STRONG agreement with OP aka 18z GFS:

 

 

 

That's pretty amazing consistency and strongly supports the 24"+ inch calls by LWX.  

[Deck Pic]

STRONG agreement with OP aka 18z GFS:

 

mahboilookatallthissnow.png

 

I think e7, e17, e20 make the most sense

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

STRONG agreement with OP aka 18z GFS:

 

mahboilookatallthissnow.png

 

I know it's close in for ensembles, but man that is remarkable.  I believe 12Z was similar?  At this point, within 2 days, I guess one would expect very close agreement.

[snowfan]

Para Euro cut back on the northern extent slightly and the totals north of DC. The northern cutoff is so extreme .3" in Harrisburg, 1.2" in Westminster.

DCA: 2.2"

BWI: 1.7"

Winchester: 1.7"

Fredericksburg: 2.2"

[Deck Pic]

FYI, 12z Parallel Euro is pretty far south

 

DCA 2.2

IAD 2.0

BWI 1.7

Baltimore 1.6

OKV 1.7

MRB 1.2

Westminster 1.2

FDK 1.3

EZF 2.3

[nj2va]

Sorry if this was already posted in the older thread but the 12z Euro Para is on WxBell.  

 

QPF:

 

DC 2.2"

Winchester 1.7"

EZF:  2.5"

Balt:  1.6"

Westminster 1.2"

Annapolis 2.0"

iAD 2.0"

[midatlanticweather]

Just a note and would love others to chime in... 12Z Euro has been south most runs on precip, on 0Z it has been north.. from what I recall.. Others notice this? Is it real or just by chance?

[mitchnick]

FYI, 12z Parallel Euro is pretty far south

 

DCA 2.2

IAD 2.0

BWI 1.7

Baltimore 1.6

OKV 1.7

MRB 1.2

Westminster 1.2

FDK 1.3

EZF 2.3

colder, better ratios

[nj2va]

FYI, 12z Parallel Euro is pretty far south

 

DCA 2.2

IAD 2.0

BWI 1.7

Baltimore 1.6

OKV 1.7

MRB 1.2

Westminster 1.2

FDK 1.3

EZF 2.3

 

As hard as any model tries to go north, south, east, or west, DC/Arl/Alex seems to always end up 2.0"+.  

[snowfan]

Para Euro takes the low to VA Beach and just keeps on going ENE.

[Deck Pic]

As hard as any model tries to go north, south, east, or west, DC/Arl/Alex seems to always end up 2.0"+.  

 

yes....It makes me nervous that we get crushed in every run 

[snowfan]

If that trend continues on tonight's 0Z Euro, there will be mass weenie casualties

As was mentioned earlier, the euro has been shifting 0z to 12z for many days.

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

654 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

VAZ027-029-030-039-040-050-051-501-502-WVZ055-501-502-220800-

/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.160122T1800Z-160124T1100Z/

SHENANDOAH-PAGE-WARREN-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER-

NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-

EASTERN GRANT-

654 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO

6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING

SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF MORE THAN 2 FEET.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE

THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE

FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW... STRONGEST WINDS...

AND POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY

NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS

CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL

IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING

THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

[Deck Pic]

As hard as any model tries to go north, south, east, or west, DC/Arl/Alex seems to always end up 2.0"+.  

 

Here is a current summary for DC - amazing consistency for our backyard

 

DC

 

12z Para Euro - 2.2"

12z Euro OP - 2.2"

18z 12k Nam - 2.0"

18z 4k NAM - 2.3"

18z GFS - 2.2"

12z GGEM - 2.2"

12 UKmet - 2.0"

12Z Para GFS - 2.5"

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

654 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-503>506-VAZ053-054-505-506-220800-

/O.CON.KLWX.BZ.W.0001.160122T2000Z-160124T1100Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-

NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-

NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-

654 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM

EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING

SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SLEET MAY MIX

WITH THE SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF

INTERSTATE 95 BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY

AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES IN THE

EASTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC...AND 24 TO 30 INCHES IN THE

WESTERN SUBURBS. THE CITY OF WASHINGTON DC IS EXPECTED TO

RECEIVE AROUND 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND

CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO

DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW...

STRONGEST WINDS...AND POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS

EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS

CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL

IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING

THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VISIBILITY

WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

[yoda]

Here is a current summary for DC - amazing consistency for our backyard

 

DC

 

12z Para Euro - 2.2"

12z Euro OP - 2.2"

18z 12k Nam - 2.0"

18z 4k NAM - 2.3"

18z GFS - 2.2"

12z GGEM - 2.2"

12 UKmet - 2.0"

 

Indeed it is... I like your call of 16-22 I believe that you made earlier today

[PivotPoint]

12z Para Euro is behind the times... The tick south seems to go against climo setup for the big ones like this. All guidance here forward will hold steady or slightly adjust N/NW up till game time. How these big events typically evolve. Everything still very much on-track. Possible but highly doubt other guidance will follow

[WxUSAF]

Don't think anyone can say the euro has been more consistent than the gfs on this storm. Doesn't mean gfs is right, but it's been steady.

[Deck Pic]

12z Para Euro is behind the times... The tick south seems to go against climo setup for the big ones like this. All guidance here forward will hold steady or slightly adjust N/NW up till game time. How these big events typically evolve. Everything still very much on-track. Possible but highly doubt other guidance will follow

 

Pretty much agree it is too far south...while Para might score higher, we don't really know how it performs with east coast snowstorms...It may be inferior to the current OP

[PhineasC]

Is the euro ever outside it's wheelhouse? Its been really consistent for DC.

It's jumped around several times over the last few days, actually.

[snowfan]

It's jumped around several times over the last few days, actually.

yes, with the northern extent. I font buy how far south it is. That said, it's been pretty solid for dc.

[nj2va]

Here is a current summary for DC - amazing consistency for our backyard

 

DC

 

12z Para Euro - 2.2"

12z Euro OP - 2.2"

18z 12k Nam - 2.0"

18z 4k NAM - 2.3"

18z GFS - 2.2"

12z GGEM - 2.2"

12 UKmet - 2.0"

 

Wow, that's really good consistency for DC.  I knew it was close today but I didn't realize it was quite like that.  Also, the 12z GFS Para gave DC 2.5"+ but its been overdoing QPF for days compared to other guidance.  I'd almost shave 0.5" across the board from GFS Para QPF but I think the distribution of it on the GFS Para makes sense.  I have no idea how it's been verifying though.  

 

Certainly high confidence we see 2.0"+ QPF.

[Deck Pic]

Don't think anyone can say the euro has been more consistent than the gfs on this storm. Doesn't mean gfs is right, but it's been steady.

 

It's been steady for our backyard for a big event, but hasn't really been steady with QPF dist, especially outside the city. For a while it was punching a dry slot up the shenandoah and was wrapping too much convection around the low.  Then it gave DC 3.5".  Now it is pushing a dry slot up the Chesapeake bay and giving Western Philly burbs 3.5"....It is trying to act like a mesoscale model.  I wouldn't say it has been bad with the synoptics, but I certainly wouldn't favor it over the Euro, even though the euro has had its own issues..

[PivotPoint]

Pretty much agree it is too far south...while Para might score higher, we don't really know how it performs with east coast snowstorms...It may be inferior to the current OP

Very good add-in. Additionally, both EURO op and the para have seemed (for the most part) to really emphasize the mod/hvy precip cutoff to the N/NW. Could be true but other guidance begs to differ. Interested in what Bob eluded to earlier in regards to useful range of the mesoscale models. Curious to see how they setup

[Amped]

FYI, 12z Parallel Euro is pretty far south

 

DCA 2.2

IAD 2.0

BWI 1.7

Baltimore 1.6

OKV 1.7

MRB 1.2

Westminster 1.2

FDK 1.3

EZF 2.3

 Euro is just further south and smaller with the closed H5 low. It's apparent by 24hrs.

[Deck Pic]

Wow, that's really good consistency for DC.  I knew it was close today but I didn't realize it was quite like that.  Also, the 12z GFS Para gave DC 2.5"+ but its been overdoing QPF for days compared to other guidance.  I'd almost shave 0.5" across the board from GFS Para QPF but I think the distribution of it on the GFS Para makes sense.  I have no idea how it's been verifying though.  

 

Certainly high confidence we see 2.0"+ QPF.

 

Forgot about the Para - fixed below

 

Here is a current summary for DC - amazing consistency for our backyard

 

DC

 

12z Para Euro - 2.2"

12z Euro OP - 2.2"

18z 12k Nam - 2.0"

18z 4k NAM - 2.3"

18z GFS - 2.2"

12z GGEM - 2.2"

12 UKmet - 2.0"

12Z Para GFS - 2.5"

[Bob Chill]

I'm getting close to being done with models unless some new twist develops. Anyone who lives 30 miles from the obvious fringe or mixing zone can do the same for the most part.

We're seeing wobbles and will keep seeing them until game time. Then the storm itself will do its own wobbles in real time. Close to time to just let the chips fall.

With that being said I'm staying up for the euro. Lol

[clskinsfan]

LMAO! 18Z GFS Cobb......Only 42.8 for MRB and 32.4 for IAD

 

MRB:

160124/0600Z 60 31007KT 24.2F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 16:1| 42.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.71 100| 0| 0

 

DCA:

160124/0600Z 60 35016KT 26.7F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 10:1| 23.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.21 100| 0| 0

 

IAD:

160124/0600Z 60 34010KT 25.6F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 12:1| 32.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.73 100| 0| 0

 

BWI:

160124/0900Z 63 35020KT 25.1F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 10:1| 18.8|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 1.93 100| 0| 0

 

WOO:

160124/0300Z 57 34004KT 25.6F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 15:1| 29.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.89 100| 0| 0

 

RIC:

160124/0600Z 60 35012KT 27.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 9:1| 11.5|| 1.61|| 0.03|| 3.01 100| 0| 0

 

CHO:

160124/0000Z 54 34010KT 27.8F SNOW 18:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 12:1| 23.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.96 100| 0| 0