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STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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AlaskaETC

AlaskaETC

Posted
Posted

lol gfs...can't take this model too seriously...just like 2/12/14, it can't handle these events as well as the euro

 

I wouldn't toss it, I would use it to determine the upper threshold. 27" is not out of the question....this is a generational storm. It's been steady for a long time.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted

lol gfs...can't take this model too seriously...just like 2/12/14, it can't handle these events as well as the euro

I think it has done decently. I was looking back through our posts we first started looking at this. Euro op had some wonky solutions too. I know it is the best but not infallible. GFS wasn't too far off the mark. I guess we will know soon enough.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Kocin ftw

 


PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD429 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016VALID 00Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 00Z MON JAN 25 2016DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...THE WELL ADVERTISED WINTER STORM THAT HAS BEEN ON THE FORECASTRADAR FOR THE PAST 6 TO 8 OR MORE DAYS WILL FINALLY COME TOFRUITION TOMORROW WITH ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECASTFROM EARLIER FORECASTS. FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES..THIS ISLIKELY TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM SINCE THE DOUBLESTORMS/SNOWMAGEDDON OF FEBRUARY 2010...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN OHIOVALLEY/APPALACHIANS/MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE STORM IS JUST BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPIVALLEY AND ITS IMPACTS WILL BE FELT FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITHSIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM ARKANSAS ANDNORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO LARGE PORTIONSOF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING/END OF DAY1. DURING THIS TIME...A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THESOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THETENNESSEE VALLEY WILL FILL WHILE A SECONDARY LOW BEGINS TO DEEPENALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WHILE HIGHLY CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOWLIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVER NEW ENGLAND.BENEATH THE CONFLUENT FLOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARDACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.  LINKING THESEFEATURES...A COUPLED JET PATTERN IS CLEARLY EVIDENT AT 300 MB WITHONE JET OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER JET OVER NEW ENGLAND.THESE ARE THE CLASSIC INGREDIENTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM.FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWERMISSISSIPPI VALLEY FIRST AND THEN SPREAD EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTOTENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOWAND SLEET WILL FALL IN THE EMERGING COMMA HEAD OVER ARKANSAS WHILEMIXED PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD WITH SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERNEDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. BY FRIDAY MORNING...MIXEDPRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTHCAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN VIRGINIA AND BECOME ALL SNOWOVER THE WESTERN CAROLINA MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.  BYFRIDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM KENTUCKY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WESTVIRGINIA/CENTRAL AND WESTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. THEHEAVIEST SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY SOUTHERN WESTVIRGINIA INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.  THERE IS AMODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THESELOCATIONS BY FRIDAY EVENING.FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SOME SNOW WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN ACROSSSOUTHERN KENTUCKY/EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE WHILESIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREMENORTHEAST GEORGIA NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOVER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOWFREEZING...PERHAPS THE GREATEST THREAT IS ACCUMULATIONS ONTREES/POWERLINES WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN A QUARTERINCH OF ICE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTHCAROLINA..ON DAY 2/FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STORM HEADSNORTHEASTWARD WITH LOW PRESSURE REACHING JUST EAST OF THE NORTHCAROLINA VIRGINIA COAST.  IT THEN MOVES VERY SLOWLY EASTNORTHEASTWARD WHILE ANOTHER CENTER FORMS OFFSHORE. THE STORMBECOMES A FULL FLEDGED SNOWSTORM/BLIZZARD FROM EASTERN KENTUCKYACROSS WEST VIRGINIA/VIRGINIA/MARYLAND/DC/SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIAAND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN DELAWARE.  THEREIS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSSNORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA/NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND DC AND MARYLAND WITHMODERATE CHANCES FOR A FOOT OR GREATER ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERNPENNSYLVANIA INTO THE PHILADELPHIA REGION.  TOTAL SNOWFALL COULDAPPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 2 FEET IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERNAND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND. THE LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENTAND DEVELOPING LONG FETCH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RESULT INHIGH WINDS AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ESPECIALLYFROM THE VIRGINIA COAST NORTH INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERIZEDBY A VERY SHARP GRADIENT OF LITTLE VS HEAVY SNOW AND WILL BELOCATED OVER CENTRAL OHIO/NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA/SOUTHEAST NEW YORKAND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXCEEDING 4 INCHES ISLIKELY TO MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS NEW YORK CITY BY SATURDAYEVENING. THE LOCATION OF THIS EDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGETO FORECAST SINCE THE MODELS COULD CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATENORTH/SOUTH DURING THE REMAINING FORECAST CYCLES.BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE AREACONTINUES EASTWARD OFF THE COAST AND SNOW WILL END FROM NORTHERNVIRGINIA/MARYLAND/DELAWARE/NEW JERSEY/NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLANDAND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF ANADDITIONAL 4 INCHES OF SNOW AFTER SATURDAY EVENING/DAY 3.KOCIN
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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted

I think thats a bit high on the eastern part w/guidance... 18z GFS and NAM and 12z Euro don't support 2'+into DC.

First of all, they are not changing that map based on 18Z runs; the wording in the Blizzard Warning text already indicated they're forecasting around 24" in the city, 24-30 in the western suburbs, and 18-24 in the eastern ones. Second of all, do you want forecasters to simply put up an automated snow-map like wxbell's so that they can match what the GFS, NAM, or Euro spits out verbatim at each location? This is what they are forecasting based on their interpretation of all available guidance. Like, no one is going all of a sudden forecast 30+" in southern PA because the 18Z GFS shows a couple blotches of 3"+ liquid. 

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neff

neff

Posted
Posted

. Like, no one is going all of a sudden forecast 30+" in southern PA because the 18Z GFS shows a couple blotches of 3"+ liquid. 

 

No, but support for 20-24" along the Mason-Dixon in PA exists, yet CTP has that area below 20. Cross the border, and LWX has it at 24.

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