STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

[nj2va]

4k NAM is porn.  Straight.  up.  porn.  

[Snowman.]

Holy ****

[Wxdavis5784]

The 4km NAM has a lot of QPF, though it does indicate a period of sleet for DC between from approximately 07UTC to 11UTC (2am - 6am). I haven't looked at the sounding for the 4km NAM, but the standard NAM sounding at that time has temps near 800mb either at 0C or ever so slightly above 0C.

The NAM usually has a warm bias, doesn't it??

[JonathanW]

Holy ****

And that's just a straight up 10:1 ratio. QPF approaching 4 inches in spots on this run so far (~35 hours)

Can anyone speak to the accuracy of the 4km NAM at 15 hours vs. the HRRR? The former is quite a bit more aggressive at this point.

[aldie 22]

It's amazing that these models aren't backing down at all with precip. I just picked up .6 and it wasn't even coming down that hard. People better get their sleep now...tonight might be a once in a lifetime event lol.

What's funny about that statement....since 1996 we have had 5-6 once in a lifetime events

[WeSuck]

What's funny about that statement....since 1996 we have had 5-6 once in a lifetime events

Bc DC is a snowtown

[brettjrob]

Here's the 4km NAM using Kuchera ratios:

 

[mattie g]

Let's bring it. I want deform crushing and howling winds. 30" or bust!

[yoda]

FWIW, 12z GFS parallel is a monster -- http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160122+12+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model

[RichmondTarHeel]

Here's the 4km NAM using Kuchera ratios:

acckucherasnowma.png

I'm bad at reading these. Is that saying near 50" in Dulles or am I way off?

[caviman2201]

I'm bad at reading these. Is that saying near 50" in Dulles or am I way off?

 

3.5" QPF, so no I doubt it.  

[Bob Chill]

18z RGEM punches some dry air through md overnight so there is a lull from 6-12. Then starts hitting hard again. Only out to 24 on tidbits.

[yoda]

18z RGEM punches some dry air through md overnight so there is a lull from 6-12. Then starts hitting hard again. Only out to 24 on tidbits.

 

12-16 inches by 7am

[RichmondTarHeel]

3.5" QPF, so no I doubt it.  

 

Would be 42" at 12:1.  Not sure how Kuchera works, but QPF works better for me.  I might be colorblind or something.

[brettjrob]

I'm bad at reading these. Is that saying near 50" in Dulles or am I way off?

 

Using Kuchera ratios, which hover around 12:1-14:1 during the peak of the event, that bullseye over Loudoun/Fauquier is 48-52".

 

Note that the QPF bullseye in that area is 3.75-4".

[PhineasC]

Finally got a run to jackpot my house. 18Z RGEM gets it done.

[olafminesaw]

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

DC gets in the 2.5 inch contour on the RGEM.

[AlaskaETC]

Bob Chill just got the RGEM run he wanted. Wow.

 

[nj2va]

Over 2' on the RGEM.  Winchester jackpot.

[66degreesnorth]

Timing on rgem? Mainly a night job or do we get in the action tomorrow too?

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

[CAPE]

Finally got a run to jackpot my house. 18Z RGEM gets it done.

And it actually looks reasonable, unlike the overdone NAM. Its simply a better meso model.

[needbiggerboat]

18z gfs looks like 24-30 on ground area wide by 7am

[AmericanWxFreak]

18z gfs looks like 24-30 on ground area wide by 7am

 

Are you sure, storm vista doesnt make it look that robust.... It looks good dont get me wrong.. but really?

[CAPE]

Are you sure, storm vista doesnt make it look that robust.... It looks good dont get me wrong.. but really?

7am Sunday maybe..

[PhineasC]

18z gfs looks like 24-30 on ground area wide by 7am

needbiggersled

[McQuackleton]

33hr GFS:

 

[yoda]

7am Sunday maybe..

 

No, 7 am Sat fo realz

[PhineasC]

GFS has had 30-40 across the area for several runs now. With everything but the Euro showing that it seems kind of hard to totally ignore.

[CAPE]

No, 7 am Sat fo realz

I was speaking of reality, not what the model shows