STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

At 5 p.m. it is 27" in the metro areas and 30" just N&W of town.

 

Thanks.  Just caught some of it on Instant Wx Maps finally.  Yeah, it buries us with the front end through ~12Z or so, and then we get hit later in the day from the looks of it.  A lull in early-mid afternoon, but still appears to be snowing lightly during that time.

[HighStakes]

4' for Highstakes lol.

Fozz once told me that elevation helps.

[Snowman.]

[dtk]

Do we toss it's depiction of the deformation since it's still way north of all the other guidance? 

I'm not even going to waste time looking at the 12km NAM.  I'm somewhat interested in the 4km CONUS nest, however.

[PhineasC]

Even missing out on some of the heavy deform, DCA still gets clobbered. It just wants to snow a whole lot no matter what.

[Amped]

please be more specific

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My bad that's a 3.5" near HGR. and NW half of the area over 2.5"

 

[nj2va]

4k NAM 2" QPF NoVA/DC by 7am

[Snowman.]

4KM NAM clobbers everyone at 12z

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4k NAM 2" QPF NoVA/DC by 7am

 

Still ripping at 12z in DC but then the band heads just north of the district by 15z.

 

Edit: Nice band swinging through 18z-21z, this will probably have an epic storm total for DC.

[ravensrule]

Fozz once told me that elevation helps.

 You lucky bastid.

[87storms]

Looks like the NAM has 1.8-2.0 for DC by 10z.

 

sounds like over a foot by sunrise is a lock

[DCAlexandria]

sounds like over a foot by sunrise is a lock

foot? Closer to 2 feet.

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[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

sounds like over a foot by sunrise is a lock

 

Yeah I don't see how we don't, I'm hoping for 18-20 by 7am.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

sounds like over a foot by sunrise is a lock

 

More like close to 20" to 2 feet it seems.  Similar to pretty much all other guidance.

[nj2va]

sounds like over a foot by sunrise is a lock

 

4k NAM has a foot by 2am in DC.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Still a very nice band at 00z tomorrow on the 4km NAM.  It would be amazing if it's right.

[PhineasC]

How can anyone have issues with the 4k NAM? Good lord it is a shellacking.

[Snowman.]

19z HRRR at 5am 

[87storms]

More like close to 20" to 2 feet it seems.  Similar to pretty much all other guidance.

 

yea i'm being conservative.  can definitely see a bit of the crunch job taking place to the north.  precip sort of running into a wall.  can see how things would consolidate over our region.

[Bob Chill]

4k Nam is first degree felony obscenity

[stormtracker]

4k Nam is first degree felony obcenity

I don't even know what to say. its unreal

[Deck Pic]

4k Nam is first degree felony obcenity

 

yes...absurd

[osfan24]

Is 4k NAM done running? Can anyone post final amounts? Sim radar banding looked insane.

[AlaskaETC]

4k NAM map

 

[PhineasC]

Is 4k NAM done running? Can anyone post final amounts? Sim radar banding looked insane.

2.5-3.5 inches across the area.

[Bob Chill]

If the RGEM looks like the 4k then I may slip into a brief coma. It's simply too much to mentally process.

[osfan24]

Pretty big hit. Looks like widespread 30 inch amounts. I'm looking forward to the next run of the RGEM.

[lilhill]

4k NAM map

 

 

So this map shows total snowfall through 06Z Sunday, starting at 18Z today, not including what has fallen up until 18Z today?

[AlaskaETC]

So this map shows total snowfall through 06Z Sunday, starting at 18Z today, not including what has fallen up until 18Z today?

 

I think so...

[ohwxguy]

The 4km NAM has a lot of QPF, though it does indicate a period of sleet for DC between from approximately 07UTC to 11UTC (2am - 6am).  I haven't looked at the sounding for the 4km NAM, but the standard NAM sounding at that time has temps near 800mb either at 0C or ever so slightly above 0C.