STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

[Bob Chill]

Honestly, the euro look is nothing more than a smoothed out Meso like the RGEM with less precip. Distribution very similar to the RGEM. We might get crushed better than the euro. But if the euro is "worst case"...it's pretty incredible either way. 

[wawarriors4]

Makes me think we might have been too conservative with our calls.

 

Wes, it also seems to bring higher wind gusts further into the LWX cwa......could they expand Blizzard Warnings or just go with whats up?

[SabreAce33]

Thanks Bob and ravensrule.  Really interesting battle between Euro and the others down here.  How does Euro typically bias on temps?  Warm or cold?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Not sure if I can post maps, but here are 12z euro total precip

 

DCA 2.2

BWI 2.0

IAD 2.6

OKV 2.7

MRB 2.3

JYO 2.7

FDK 2.4

Balt city 2.0

Westminster 2.2

EZF 2.3

Annapolis 1.9

 

Awesome, great job again with the PBP.  I'm assuming DC-BWI is on the edge of the best deformation during the day tomorrow?

[ravensrule]

Thanks Bob and ravensrule.  Really interesting battle between Euro and the others down here.  How does Euro typically bias on temps?  Warm or cold?

Btw Bob was right you are closer to 15" when i zoomed in. The contours were so tight on the eastern shore it was hard to tell. Over the years the knock on it is that it's slightly warm.

[Deck Pic]

1.8" for DCA by 7am tomorrow 

[SabreAce33]

Btw Bob was right you are closer to 15" when i zoomed in. The contours were so tight on the eastern shore it was hard to tell. Over the years the knock on it is that it's slightly warm.

 

That's what I thought.  In that case, I'll take it.  It's a nightmare to forecast down here re: temps and P-type.  Feel bad for snowdude.

[WxUSAF]

Thanks Ravensrule.  31" for me!?  Is that Eurowx snow total output?  Or is that liquid *10? 

[Deck Pic]

Awesome, great job again with the PBP.  I'm assuming DC-BWI is on the edge of the best deformation during the day tomorrow?

 

I think the worst dryslot moved east..but we are definitely east of the great stuff for some of the day...Euro only gives us 0.4" tomorrow...But it is all about banding

[EHoffman]

Dry slot?

Keeps it offshore.

[MegaMike]

According to bob ryan, am bufkit shows sleet in DC at 2 am.

 

The warmest it gets on the NCAR Ensembles at 2:00 AM for KIDA (no KDCA) is -5C from 5400-8100 feet. The entire column stays below freezing through 00UTC Sunday.

[ravensrule]

1.8" for DCA by 7am tomorrow 

The 11 p.m. to 7 a.m. tomorrow is going to truly be epic.

[ravensrule]

Thanks Ravensrule.  31" for me!?  Is that Eurowx snow total output?  Or is that liquid *10? 

No, EuroWx snow total output. But i have followed it and generally it is either correct or at most a little off.

[yoda]

The 11 p.m. to 7 a.m. tomorrow is going to truly be epic.

 

Yup... majority of the models have that time period as a period of obliteration via snow.... and rates of 2" p/hr or maybe more

 

[DCAlexandria]

The warmest it gets on the NCAR Ensembles at 2:00 AM for KIDA (no KDCA) is -5C from 5400-8100 feet. The entire column stays below freezing through 00UTC Sunday.

Can anyone check what DCA shows?

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[usedtobe]

Wes, it also seems to bring higher wind gusts further into the LWX cwa......could they expand Blizzard Warnings or just go with whats up?

Good question.   I don't know.

[84 Hour NAM]

I hate that the beef of this storm is coming in during bed time. I can only stay awake so long.

[yoda]

[DCAlexandria]

Is that the whole storm yoda?

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[yoda]

Is that the whole storm yoda?

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Yes... hr 48 snow image from the WRF-ARW

[yoda]

WRF-NMM, however, laughs at the ARW and is an absolute smashing:

 

[BTRWx]

There may be a dry slot after this image, but still probably more to fall after this last frame of the hrrr for Saturday morning.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?keys=hrrr_jet:&runtime=2016012215&plot_type=acsnw_t3esblmn&fcst=23&time_inc=60&num_times=25&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1

[wawarriors4]

Good question.   I don't know.

 

Me either, though it wouldn't surprise me to see an expansion into like Fauquier, Culpeper and Orange Counties....maybe even out to Winchester....

 

Could also see Wakefield throw them up in like Caroline, Hanover and down to Richmond if the higher wind does indeed get that far into Virginia

[davidjd1994]

is that big hole in the precip supposed to be there?

[WxUSAF]

is that big hole in the precip supposed to be there?

It's not a hole, it's the virga slowly reaching the surface. 

[Drz1111]

WRF-NMM, however, laughs at the ARW and is an absolute smashing:

 

wrf-nmm_asnow_neus_48.png

Check your timestamp, chief.

[yoda]

Check your timestamp, chief.

 

Thanks for that... didnt see it... stil a bunch of snow nonetheless

[Random Chaos]

High wind warning for bay-touching counties on the MD western shore:

MDZ011-014-017-018-508-230015-
/O.NEW.KLWX.HW.W.0001.160123T0600Z-160123T1800Z/
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-ANNE ARUNDEL-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BALTIMORE...GLEN BURNIE...ANNAPOLIS...
SEVERN...SOUTH GATE...SEVERNA PARK...ARNOLD...ODENTON...
LEXINGTON PARK...CALIFORNIA...CHESAPEAKE BEACH...HUNTINGTOWN...
DUNKIRK...NORTH BEACH...LUSBY...PRINCE FREDERICK...ABERDEEN
1105 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM
EST SATURDAY.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65
  MPH...BECOMING NORTH SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES... POWERLINES...AND MINOR STRUCTURAL
  DAMAGE. DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES IN THESE CONDITIONS IS
  DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE
WILL CAUSE TREE AND PROPERTY DAMAGE.  ANTICIPATE POWER OUTAGES.
IF YOU LIVE NEAR LARGE TREES... REMAIN IN A LOWER LEVEL OF YOUR
HOME OR SEEK SHELTER ELSEWHERE IF POSSIBLE.

[davidjd1994]

It's not a hole, it's the virga slowly reaching the surface. 

Oh ok, good 

[osfan24]

Are we still looking at this thing stalling for 12 hours or so and just dumping on us? It seems like the idea of the low just bombing off the coast as it stalls and dumps on us tomorrow has kinda gone away. Seems like its a faster storm now that gets out of here sometime later Saturday. It seems like tonight is pretty much locked up for a dumping with the front side action and we wake up with 16-20 or so on the ground, but then the placement of the deformation zone band seems completely up in the air. If you get a stalled storm and get that on top of you, you could really cash in.