STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

[Bob Chill]

12z para gfs is another straight up mauling. Widespread 2.5" qpf. Stripe of 3" from baltimore to winchester. 

[Interstate]

It just amazes me how the 12k and 4k NAM can be so different.  Are they run on the same data?

[yoda]

12z para gfs is another straight up mauling. Widespread 2.5" qpf. Stripe of 3" from baltimore to winchester. 

 

Could easily see TSSN or 2"+ hr rates per para GFS as well I would figure

[Interstate]

Where is the low pressure located now?

TX/LA Boarder

[Amped]

12z para gfs is another straight up mauling. Widespread 2.5" qpf. Stripe of 3" from baltimore to winchester.

Almost double the Euro.

[Snowman.]

Para QPF 

[high risk]

   the nest runs inside the NAM with the parent feeding it initial and boundary conditions.   but there are several differences, the most important of which MAY be that the nest has explicit convection while the parent runs a convective scheme.   So any system in which convection feeds back to the synoptic scale may end up with very different parent and nest solutions.

 

 

It just amazes me how the 12k and 4k NAM can be so different.  Are they run on the same data?

[yoda]

12z ARW out to 12z SAT re QPF (more QPF/snow to come!)

 

[Ian]

I made a thread for specific storm tracking/obs etc. No need to have all that mashed in with days of model discussion.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47705-jan-22-24-blizzard-obs-tracking-now-casting/

 

Keep model talk here of course.

[yoda]

18z RGEM at 36 is a shellacking, 995mb SLP - http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3294_100.gif

 

Will have meteocentre in a few

[Interstate]

18z RGEM at 36 is a shellacking, 995mb SLP - http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3294_100.gif

 

Will have meteocentre in a few

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[ers-wxman1]

Looking closely at the 18z NAM it appears to weaken the high to the north too quickly which allows the storm to come further north. Not seeing this on other models.

[yoda]

Mitchnick will love this map -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3255_100.gif

[yoda]

Geez... yesh please Sir RGEM!

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif

 

48 hrs 991mb SE of ORF a lil bit and we were crushed silly

[Raven94]

RGEM

[Eskimo Joe]

Looking closely at the 18z NAM it appears to weaken the high to the north too quickly which allows the storm to come further north. Not seeing this on other models.

Bob Chill and some of the others on here have alluded to that as well.  Looks like it's the northern edge of the envelope ATTM.

[yoda]

Looks like 18z RGEM's SLP is captured between hrs 48 and 54 as we are in deform band heaven

[Deck Pic]

GFS start time for DC - 1-2pm

[yoda]

996mb SLP near HSE 6z SAT

 

992mb SLP over HSE 9z SAT

[Raven94]

18Z GFS 36 Much more blues NW of the low. should be wetter 

[Interstate]

Thur 27 no difference as far the placement of the H5

[ravensrule]

1' at 4 a.m. this is going to be a sweet run.

[AlaskaETC]

RGEM gives us 2.4" of QPF it seems.

[yoda]

DCA 12" by 09z SAT.... approaching 20-24" by 15z... 24" by 18z

[ravensrule]

10 a.m. DC is close to 2'

[Bob Chill]

GFS is obviously going to be a mauling. 

 

Here's the rgem precip through 18z Sat. More to come. Wow. 

 

[ravensrule]

27" at 4 p.m. 

[Raven94]

51-54 its ripping in NE MD- SE PA The blotch 

[Deck Pic]

lol gfs...can't take this model too seriously...just like 2/12/14, it can't handle these events as well as the euro

[McQuackleton]

GFS 60hr