STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

[mdsnowlover]

Seems like all models have been converging on very high amounts through 12Z Saturday.  Even the relatively more conservative runs like last night's 00Z Euro would have the metro areas pushing 18-20" by then.  I cannot even fathom that, to be honest.

agree, seems way to high for that amt of time, overall totals seem high too. based on 67 years of experience, ref 66 blizzard ans snow meggadeon.

[Bob Chill]

12z gfs is actually lower in QPF than 6z. The IWM snow maps doing the ratio thing don't do a good job with QPF. Here's the QPF panel:

 

[stormtracker]

In all seriousness....this is something incomprehensible.   The GFS is almost always so much drier than other models.  I mean, i know we're all saying this isn't possible, but every single models is showing these ridiculous amounts.

[CoastalWx]

I would argue the GFS has tremendous banding signal near and esp N and NW of DC...but the city itself it right there too, on the GFS. Soundings get a bit conditionally unstable near and after 12z. It wouldn't shock me for a clap.

[BTRWx]

No dryslot for all 15 hours on hrrr. Still snowing good after the 14Z run.

[Amped]

12z gfs is actually lower in QPF than 6z. The IWM snow maps doing the ratio thing don't do a good job with QPF. Here's the QPF panel:

 

gfsqpf.JPG

Now in agreement with every other model in the last 12hrs with maybe a bit more  around Faifax.

[mdsnowlover]

In all seriousness....this is something incomprehensible.   The GFS is almost always so much drier than other models.  I mean, i know we're all saying this isn't possible, but every single models is showing these ridiculous amounts.

your echoing what i have been thinking for a couple of days, considering how many years i have lived here in cent md , going on 60.

[Ji]

looks like GFS has IAD at 2.91 which appears to be the jackpot

[mdsnowlover]

looks like GFS has IAD at 2.91 which appears to be the jackpot

enjoy, that's a lot of snow to shovel,

[Fozz]

In all seriousness....this is something incomprehensible.   The GFS is almost always so much drier than other models.  I mean, i know we're all saying this isn't possible, but every single models is showing these ridiculous amounts.

 

I think it looks more reasonable compared to the previous two runs... still very wet and am**d, but none of the insane 40-50" totals. 

[ers-wxman1]

If those amounts verify this should become the GFStorm.

We truly need a win for the American models.

[JonathanW]

Looking at the radar... it looks like the snow will be here before 3 PM

Should reach the DC beltway initially by around 12pm.

[NinjaWarrior2]

GGEM HAS 13" for DC by 10:00pm say whaaat? 2' by 4:00am SWEET JESUS. 40-42" on IWM. Whole area gets wrecked.

[CoastalWx]

The GFS is finally getting off the weird narrow bullseye.It's been jumpy and mesoscale like with QPF placement.

[Expat]

Radar looks great!

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-1-6

[MillvilleWx]

6z Fire Nest 36 HR QPF valid until 18z Saturday. And just an FYI, it's not even close to done yet according to radar.

 

 

Fixed

[BTRWx]

6z Fire Nest 36 HR QPF valid until 18z Saturday. And just an FYI, it's not even close to done yet according to radar.

fire nest.PNG

The color bar was clipped off

[NorthArlington101]

The color bar was clipped off

[MillvilleWx]

And for all those wondering about the precip on the eastern shore being so low, this is nested over DC, so areas on the NE side of the nest are going to appear lower by default I believe. dtk or someone else can back me up if I'm wrong, but I doubt the totals NE of Bmore will be that low.

[Snowpocalypse]

And for all those wondering about the precip on the eastern shore being so low, this is nested over DC, so areas on the NE side of the nest are going to appear lower by default I believe. dtk or someone else can back me up if I'm wrong, but I doubt the totals NE of Bmore will be that low.

 

Phewww. had me scared. Thanks for clarification.

[JonathanW]

DOT road temperatures mostly below freezing. Untreated roads are going to snow up pretty quickly.

[Maestrobjwa]

GGEM HAS 13" for DC by 10:00pm say whaaat? 2' by 4:00am SWEET JESUS. 40-42" on IWM. Whole area gets wrecked.

By 10 TONIGHT?? Gotta be overdone....right? Lol Even midnight would sound a bit more realistic!

[dtk]

And for all those wondering about the precip on the eastern shore being so low, this is nested over DC, so areas on the NE side of the nest are going to appear lower by default I believe. dtk or someone else can back me up if I'm wrong, but I doubt the totals NE of Bmore will be that low.

I'm not so sure.  This is a one-way nest and I think it is driven by the 12km NAM, so it is probably feeling the effects of that.  It looks like the dry slot is over the eastern shore for a good bit of the end of that run, and a weird evolution thereof at that.  I mean, from F30-F33 a huge chunk of precip just disappears and a giant hole develops, probably some weird effect from feeling the 12km NAM at the boundaries.

[T. August]

Not sure if it was posted, but a High Wind Warning is up for the Bay counties.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lwx&wwa=high%20wind%20warning

[BTRWx]

High Wind Warning for Eastern and Northeast Maryland!

 

eta: I'm not sure about exact locations impacted

[MillvilleWx]

I'm not so sure.  This is a one-way nest and I think it is driven by the 12km NAM, so it is probably feeling the effects of that.  It looks like the dry slot is over the eastern shore for a good bit of the end of that run, and a weird evolution thereof at that.  I mean, from F30-F33 a huge chunk of precip just disappears and a giant hole develops, probably some weird effect from feeling the 12km NAM at the boundaries.

 

Ah. That makes sense. I noticed that too, but I thought it was just some weird cut off of the nest. Thanks for clarifying

[nj2va]

12z GGEM total precip:

 

 

[mdsnowlover]

 

DOT road temperatures mostly below freezing. Untreated roads are going to snow up pretty quickly.

 

real concern now, havent seen an pretreatment trucks at all

[SabreAce33]

Any mets brave enough to take a stab at SBY's situation?  GFS had been saying 4-5 inches of snowfall pretty consistently, NAM 8-9, and Euro holding out higher at 10+, all models with some mixing/rain.  Now, the GFS is saying 10-12.  I know we're always tight down here with the 850 temps, but what's the thinking around the switch on the GFS?  More cold air than expected?  Less easterly flow (no way, right?)?

 

EDIT: Correction, GFS says 9 for SBY.  Damn low-res maps.

[loshjott]

real concern now, havent seen an pretreatment trucks at all

 

I saw one yesterday about 4pm on Colesville Rd. near Tech Road. I thought that's too early but I know they have a ton of road to cover before it starts.