STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

The RGEM panels on TT are like nothing I've ever seen.

 

Best part is no dryslot to speak of in DC.

[eurojosh]

RGEM:

 

[PhineasC]

RGEM is just a cool 3-4 feet across the region. No biggie.

[WeSuck]

If RGEM and these other models are right, we could be talking legitimately, Knickerbocker totals. Can we pull off a #1 storm here? If we don't dryslot, I say it is a very good chance

[PhineasC]

80-90 KT winds at 850MB. What's that mean at the surface?

[PhineasC]

If RGEM and these other models are right, we could be talking legitimately, Knickerbocker totals. Can we pull off a #1 storm here? If we don't dryslot, I say it is a very good chance

I trust the RGEM over the NAM, honestly. Euro always concerns me but it isn't some highly advanced alien artifact machine god like some here treat it. It can screw up.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Good grief. RGEM has 2.5" in DCA with 3" not too far west. 3.5" in the jack zone near OKV. Mauling

 

 

ETA: Jack zone is actually IAD. My god what a run. 

 

 

It's pulling a GFS, or so it appears.

[Bob Chill]

80-90 KT winds at 850MB. What's that mean at the surface?

 

Blizzard

[clskinsfan]

After looking at the 4k and RGEM I dont think its ridiculous to say that someone may actually end up with 40 inches from this storm. My bet would around Mt. Weather. And western Loudoun. 

[rmcwahoo]

I know this board orients towards DC/Balt, but a stunning difference in the RGEM over a matter of miles for Richmond. From 24 inches in the west end of the city to 8 or 9 inches just 25 miles south in the Tri-Cities. This is why this region never knows what will happen. This is always the line.

[yoda]

12z GFS rakage 03z to 09z.... 2" p/h rates

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

After looking at the 4k and RGEM I dont think its ridiculous to say that someone may actually end up with 40 inches from this storm. My bet would around Mt. Weather. And western Loudoun. 

 

Yes...Snowmageddon had a couple or so reports near 40", so it's not unprecedented around here or totally out there.

[yoda]

12z GFS has DCA over a foot at 1am

 

24-27 inches by 12z SAT... WTF this is just silly

[Snowpocalypse]

RGEM is just a cool 3-4 feet across the region. No biggie.

 

Could you please post a map if possible. I'm at work and have no access to the site. Damn filters.

[PhineasC]

Yes...Snowmageddon had a couple or so reports near 40", so it's not unprecedented around here or totally out there.

I had 36" in PD2. Getting over 30 inches and near 40 isn't super weird. People can't use DCA records for even right outside the city. If mappy clears 30 inches with no sweat I won't bat an eye.

[WeSuck]

12z GFS deserves every bit of 

 

That 500 mb plot tho

[nj2va]

Seems like the models are really advertising a very impressive front end thump in DC.  Money in the bank before deform.  

[H2O]

Could you please post a map if possible. I'm at work and have no access to the site. Damn filters.

 

Look a few posts up

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GFS still likes the idea of no prolonged lulls for DC.  By 36 all of DC metro is around 36 on IWM.  Outrageous.

[Interstate]

The best part... This is the last model suite before it all starts.

[WeSuck]

12z GFS is just unbelievable. We are at T-2 hours boys. Wow,, just wow.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

12z GFS has DCA over a foot at 1am

 

24-27 inches by 12z SAT... WTF this is just silly

 

Seems like all models have been converging on very high amounts through 12Z Saturday.  Even the relatively more conservative runs like last night's 00Z Euro would have the metro areas pushing 18-20" by then.  I cannot even fathom that, to be honest.

[Subtropics]

We may never see something like this again... The GFS is advertising the GOAT storm

[MN Transplant]

12z GFS rakage 03z to 09z.... 2" p/h rates

 

Again

 

[WeSuck]

Again

 

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_042.gif

Guys, this is like a once in 1000 year storm. I mean look at the size of 30"+ on the GFS. WTF

[usedtobe]

Again

 

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_042.gif

If those amounts verify this should become the GFStorm.

[Interstate]

Again

 

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_042.gif

 

Do these maps break up by regions like TT?

[clskinsfan]

Nearly unprecedented QPF on these model runs this close to an event.

[BTRWx]

  Last night's NCAR ensemble, which we've found often does quite well, has a mean snowfall for most of DC Metro in the 24-36" range by 00z Sunday.

 

http://ensemble.ucar.edu/images.php?d=2016012200&f=snowacc_mean&r=MATL

That's remarkable!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

We may never see something like this again... The GFS is advertising the GOAT storm

 

Not to banter too much...But if this happens as some of these recent runs are showing, I think it would top the 1978 Ohio blizzard for me personally (and I was in KCLE for that storm).  That storm didn't get a huge amount of snow in northeast OH, but the extreme cold (single digits) and high winds (50+ MPH) made it epic and particularly dangerous.  The one upcoming won't be that cold of course and the winds not as strong either...but the sheer snowfall in combination with blizzard-level winds would probably put it up there.  Plus this storm will be quite dangerous as well.