STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

[stormtracker]

Screen Shot 2016-01-22 at 9.27.40 AM.png

Oh man, that would more than make up for the dryslot/-SN

 

ETA:  That's radar sim, not total precip I'm guessing?

[Bob Chill]

more coming

 

Lower res nam has been the only model pushing things N for the last 4 cycles. But no support. 4k nam is much more in line with everything else. And since it's snowier for my yard it's the correct model to hug until the RGEM comes out. 

[clskinsfan]

Looks like 4k has 40DBZ over DC for 3 hours. 

[Deck Pic]

Yeah we're just nitpicking we still get hammered dry slot or no.

 

It's not nitpicking because it tells the narrative of the storm...I don't know exactly what will happen...hopefully we have +SN all day tomorrow...but chances are we will lull...hopefully the "lull" still has -SN the whole time....its not like we will see the sun come out

[Deck Pic]

Oh man, that would more than make up for the dryslot/-SN

 

ETA:  That's radar sim, not total precip I'm guessing?

 

Yes..sim radar and that is during the heart of the dryslot

[EHoffman]

It's not nitpicking because it tells the narrative of the storm...I don't know exactly what will happen...hopefully we have +SN all day tomorrow...but chances are we will lull...hopefully the "lull" still has -SN the whole time....its not like we will see the sun come out

Nitpicking in the sense that it's still a massive hit regardless...but I definitely agree with you there.

[stormtracker]

Yes..sim radar and that is during the heart of the dryslot

Ah, ok.  I realized after I posted that's what you were trying to show.   Hopefully that stuff to the west swings through

[easternsnowman]

Lower res nam has been the only model pushing things N for the last 4 cycles. But no support. 4k nam is much more in line with everything else. And since it's snowier for my yard it's the correct model to hug until the RGEM comes out. 

Euro pushed north and so did gfs. even though not as much as the nam...never the less it did.

[nj2va]

yes...we get crushed....

Good Lord....it's not even done on the panel I was looking at. Crushed.

[DCAlexandria]

Thats fair Matt, dry slot is possible but far from guaranteed.

[Yeoman]

Ah, ok.  I realized after I posted that's what you were trying to show.   Hopefully that stuff to the west swings through

oh boy does it ever..

[Deck Pic]

Good Lord....it's not even done on the panel I was looking at. Crushed.

 

almost 3" for me and you....we really clean up tomorrow late afternoon and evening

 

ETA - we pick up 0.6 - 0.7" after 1pm tomorrow...I'm psyched for tomorrow even if we sweat a bit for a time

[yoda]

06z GFS para

 

Destroyed hrs 27 to 36

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Lower res nam has been the only model pushing things N for the last 4 cycles. But no support. 4k nam is much more in line with everything else. And since it's snowier for my yard it's the correct model to hug until the RGEM comes out. 

 

Both the low res NAM and 4-km high res look better than last night, too...at least from what I can tell.

[mappy]

Screen Shot 2016-01-22 at 9.27.40 AM.png

 

that map looks fantastic. for me.

[Bob Chill]

Euro pushed north and so did gfs. even though not as much as the nam...never the less it did.

 

I was referring to the northern areas like SNE. Since it's most likely not getting that right it makes it less reliable in our area too compared to other guidance. 

[gymengineer]

almost 3" for me and you....we really clean up tomorrow late afternoon and evening

Yup, I don't think the few hours of light snow/sleet/graupel ruined the Blizzard of 96 experience for any of us. It happens as part of maturing storms all the time. We went lighter early morning 2/10 as well for awhile.

[MacintoshPro]

4K had the band N/W swing back s/e. DC folks are in lighter precip for a couple hours, but we are crushed on Saturday afternoon.

[North Balti Zen]

Correct - Feb 10, 2010 there was the burst overnight (small compared to what we expect from this) and a ton of worry on the board at eastern that it was over - and a few mets pointing out it was about to get good - then the pivot happened and a blizzard ensued for a lot of the area (but not SW of DC I don't believe).

[Bob Chill]

Yup, I don't think the few hours of light snow/sleet/graupel ruined the Blizzard of 96 experience for any of us. It happens as part of maturing storms all the time. We went lighter early morning 2/10 as well for awhile.

 

The only model run I wasn't all that fond of was the 0z euro. But the para euro looks like everything else with 2-3" QPF through the area. So far today every single run looks excellent.  I said this last night but got burned...I'll bet even odds that the 12z euro comes in bigger than the 0z. 

 

I'm not worried about any lull or dry slot as long as the deform pivots through afterwards. That seems quite likely and fits with many similar storms,

[yoda]

06z para GFS QPF map through 48:

 

[gymengineer]

Correct - Feb 10, 2010 there was the burst overnight (small compared to what we expect from this) and a ton of worry on the board at eastern that it was over - and a few mets pointing out it was about to get good - then the pivot happened and a blizzard ensued for a lot of the area (but not SW of DC I don't believe).

I was referring to the first February one for the DC area, but yes the second one had a lull too.

[umdterps29]

4K had the band N/W swing back s/e. DC folks are in lighter precip for a couple hours, but we are crushed on Saturday afternoon.

Does the band swing all the way s/e through the bay, or does it stall over DC?

[usedtobe]

Does the band swing all the way s/e through the bay, or does it stall over DC?

The SVista snow product suggests we go to seet for awhile and also dry slot.  Keeps our totals down.  It's a little scarey.  

[DCAlexandria]

The SVista snow product suggests we go to seet for awhile and also dry slot.  Keeps our totals down.  It's a little scarey.  

 

what are your odds of that happening Wes? 25% 50%

[Deck Pic]

The only model run I wasn't all that fond of was the 0z euro. But the para euro looks like everything else with 2-3" QPF through the area. So far today every single run looks excellent.  I said this last night but got burned...I'll bet even odds that the 12z euro comes in bigger than the 0z. 

 

I'm not worried about any lull or dry slot as long as the deform pivots through afterwards. That seems quite likely and fits with many similar storms,

 

If that's the price we have to pay for deathbanding later in the afternoon/evening, it is worth it.....It will sting a bit when the Winchester crew reports 100 yard viz and we are -SN, 

[Deck Pic]

what are your odds of that happening Wes? 25% 50%

 

I think you just need to accept the range of possibilities rather than every post be formulated to deny the downside

[usedtobe]

what are your odds of that happening Wes? 25% 50%

For mixing, fo you less than 25%, for me abut 25%,  The sounding even for me stays snow but when the dry slot comes is a very close call.  When the band pivots back over us, we are safe as the profile cools.

[Ltrain]

4KM NAM gives BWI 26" on Tropical Tidbits.

[stormtracker]

I think you just need to accept the range of possibilities rather than every post be formulated to deny the downside

People have a hard time here accepting the reality of our situation.  I'm fully prepped for a dry slot now...it's a bummer, but we still get a shellacking on both sides of it.   Lemons, lemonade.