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STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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MsHeatMiser

MsHeatMiser

Posted
Posted

I have a serious question... Would there be a threat of storm surge inside the eastern tributaries of the bay? I just heard the marine forcast on the news and it sounds like several hours of prolonged easterly winds.

From what I saw the jet sets up north of the bay, major flooding is more a concern in northern MD beaches, DE/NJ. My family has a back bay property in NJ that I think will flood near December 1992 levels. Fortunately the house itself is 7 feet off the ground.

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
Posted

One comment that I don't believe is banter re : dry slot - most everyone knows but i will say again - to chase historic snowfall totals around here often means flirting with the dry slot. So that's what the danger is here - worth it to have a chance at something of a generational event.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Posted
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This 06z update shows pretty clearly the presence of a dry slot that wasn't shown in the 00z version. And while is shows a very strong 2nd round moving in, it also makes it clear how reliant DC is on deformation banding to really produce for HECT or else the overall snowfall projection is in jeopardy. To go from no indication of a dry slot for DC with the 00z data to now having a dry slot with the 06z data, I'll be anxious to see the 12z update.

 

 

Yeah it doesn't look too bad though, the one panel at 12z Saturday looks a little dry.  Better than the Euro which ends all the heavy snow for us at 7am and never brings it back.

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DCWeatherGuy

DCWeatherGuy

Posted
Posted

For those of us in and around DC just waking up to the 6z GFS doubling down on its crazy 0Z run while the Euro is predicting literally half of those totals 12 hours before the storm begins, can someone summarize what the main differences are?  I understand the Euro has the dryslot reaching our area mid-day Saturday, but I assume it's more than just that?  Is it the placement of the low?  The amount of moisture in the entire storm overall?

 

I'm curious what we should be watching for on real-time radar and today which might given us a clue about which model's solution is coming true. 

 

(To be clear, I'm not complaining about "only" 1;8 inches of QPF. Just genuinely perplexed by how the top two models, which have been pretty well alligned on this storm for a week, would suddenly diverge at the 11th hour, and it would be fun to see which one ends up "winning")

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Joshfsu123

Joshfsu123

Posted
Posted

So basically Euro had 1.8+ liquid for DC - which would probably yield 20-24 inches.

Hi-res NAM at 6z just improved and shows 25 inches for DCA - up from 17-19 inches at 00z.

06z NAM is a hit: 24- 27 inches or so

06z RGEM supports 24-28 inches

06z GFS supports 40+ inches

00z Euro Para supports 24+ inches

So the forecast is pretty good for at least 20 inches in the DC area and then we wait on the dry slot. No slot and these totals increase... get in the dry slot and we get between 20-24 inches. Can't really complain about a storm bringing 20+ inches of snow to the area --- although I want no part of the dry slot of course. Hopefully it stays over by the coast. We'll know in 24 hours.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Can somebody explain what happened with the Euro last night? I tried reading it but I finally bored with it and skipped over it.

Are its numbers accurate or not?

Numbers are accurate but the evolution was a bit ragged. I was skeptical. It's younger brother looks much cleaner. Similar to all other guidance.

You are going to get destroyed. Enjoy it.

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ers-wxman1

ers-wxman1

Posted
Posted

For those of us in and around DC just waking up to the 6z GFS doubling down on its crazy 0Z run while the Euro is predicting literally half of those totals 12 hours before the storm begins, can someone summarize what the main differences are? I understand the Euro has the dryslot reaching our area mid-day Saturday, but I assume it's more than just that? Is it the placement of the low? The amount of moisture in the entire storm overall?

I'm curious what we should be watching for on real-time radar and today which might given us a clue about which model's solution is coming true.

(To be clear, I'm not complaining about "only" 1;8 inches of QPF. Just genuinely perplexed by how the top two models, which have been pretty well alligned on this storm for a week, would suddenly diverge at the 11th hour, and it would be fun to see which one ends up "winning")

06z GFS was really not all that different from 00z. It cut back a little bit but still very high QPF. It may have shifted the higher values a bit east as well.

Euro had issues overnight. I stayed up and there was one or two panels missing. It was a bit drier but it's common to see fluctuations in the global stock this close in. Hi Res guidance takes over at this range and so does radar, satellite and now casting.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

FWIW 00z GFS Para pretty much showing the same thing it's shown for like 5 days in a  row.  2.5"+ area wide...3"+ favored areas.  

 

Looking at the evolution and slp/precip panels the solution makes complete sense. Doesn't have the ragged stuff with the deform like the op. I didn't like what the op was doing with the intense precip over the ocean near the triple point low. Para is nice and connected with the deform. We'll see which one is right in 36 hours. 

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nj2va

nj2va

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Posted

Looking at the evolution and slp/precip panels the solution makes complete sense. Doesn't have the ragged stuff with the deform like the op. I didn't like what the op was doing with the intense precip over the ocean near the triple point low. Para is nice and connected with the deform. We'll see which one is right in 36 hours. 

 

Yup, I commented on something similar last night after looking at the 12z GFS Para...even if total QPF is a little overdone for such a wide swath, I thought it's distribution was much more realistic than the blotchy OP.  We're going to get nailed.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

I am having trouble seeing that big GFS QPF bullseye over the bay. It shows up as real strong lift at H7,but I don't see a reason that stands out to me.  I still feel like the areas N and W of DC probably jack zone IMO. At least my guess.

 

Thanks for popping in Coastal. Yes, N-W above the fall line and near Parrs Ridge in MD and just east of the Blue Ridge in VA is the jack zone with 95% of our big storms. I don't see how this will be any different. 

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