yoda Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yes, 06z RGEM a thing of beauty, if ever there was a model run you would want to verify verbatim -- and it's rather cute, manages to find about 8" for BOS on the way past. Has a small spot of nearly 5" L.E. just west of D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 DCA is around 2.4" QPF all snow on 06z RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 6z RGEM- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 822FXUS61 KLWX 220900AFDLWXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC400 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS EXPECTEDTO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAYNIGHT. WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.A DEEPENING TROUGH IS AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ALABAMA AS A1004MB SFC LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. WATER VAPOR AND REGIONALRADAR SHOW EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEYAND SE US WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING INTO GA/FL PANHANDLE.THE NRN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION HAS REACHED SW VA/W NC THIS MORNINGAND IS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE WASSHOWING. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR...NSSL WRF AND NAMFIRE WX NEST HAVE CAUGHT UP WITH THIS TREND AND SNOW IS NOW EXPECTEDTO MOVE INTO THE REGION 1-2 HOURS FASTER THAN PREV THOUGHTTODAY...REACHING THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA BY 7AM...NOVA/DC BY 1PMAND BALTIMORE BY 3PM. SATURATION WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THESYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP SNOW LIGHT ATTHE START BUT AFTER 1-3 HRS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE.&&.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...BY 00Z SATURDAY/FRIDAY EVENING THE SFC LOW WILL TRANSITION TO THECOAST AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE BAROCLINC ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE OFTHE SFC LOW WILL BECOME STRONGER TONIGHT WITH A 50-70KT EASTERLY LLJACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS ARE GOING TO RAMP UP CAUSINGCONDTIONS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT...BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE NEAR ZEROVISBILITIES AND DRIFTING SNOW. LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TOINCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLYEAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASETO 2+INCHES AN HOUR ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVESCLOSER TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WARM AIR INTRUSION MAYMOVE INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND WITH SLEET MIXING INTO THIS REGION.DEPENDING ON THE TRACK SOME OF THE MIXED PTYPE MIGHT MOVE IN AS FARWEST AS I-95 SATURDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SNOWFALL TOTALSACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND ESPECIALLY ST MARYS COUNTY WHERE THERECOULD BE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A FOOT OF SNOW AND A FEWINCHES. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE INTENSITY AND CURRENT FORECASTTRACK OF THE SFC LOW...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OUTPLAY MIXED PTYPE.WINDS WILL BE MAXIMIZED LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE SFCLOW APPROACHES THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. NE WINDS 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS UPTO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. FURTHER WEST...WINDSWILL TAPER OFF BUT STILL BE STRONG.THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. ANY MIXEDPTYPE ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS WILL LIKELY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BYSATURDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.THERE WAS NO CHANGE TO STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT.CONSISTENCY IS STILL PRESENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH CLOSE TO TWOFEET OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH 1-2 FEETEXPECTED ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. DUETO ELEVATION...2-3 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.WITH THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS STILL A SPREAD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERSMAINLY SHOWING HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION. THESESEEMS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO HIGHER QPF. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AREALWAYS NECESSARY AND WILL BE DONE THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.&&.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MAJOR STORM SHOULD BE OVERBY 12Z SUN IF NOT SOONER BUT NOT AFTER DUMPING 20 TO 30 INCHES OFSNOW OVER A LARGE AREA. IMPROVING WEATHER SUN THROUGH MON AS HIGHPRES BUILDS IN ALTHOUGH STILL BREEZY ON SUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 989mb SLP over HSE on 06z GFS at hr 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Has a small spot of nearly 5" L.E. just west of D.C. Yep Lovettsville Jackpot on RGEM over 4" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 06z GFS smokes I-95 corridor... DCA to EZF jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS has 27" in DC by 11am Sat. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 48" in DC. GTFO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS is another crushjob.. over 3'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 light snow hangs around all day Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 48" in DC. GTFO. I only see 3 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 ummm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 2-4 feet... wow GFS/RGEM really pounding the drum... even LWX was talking about the higher amounts and possible need to adjust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Lol over 4 feet in Southern Maryland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS would be a disaster for our area. Thru 6z sunday: 3.3" DCA 3.2" BWI 3.1" Westminster 2.6" Winchester 2.7" Fredericksburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml Pretty decent snow probability maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 God.. Heavy snow much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 LWX going HARD. Thunder snow and 2+" per hr rates, 65mph gust. 2-3FT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 LWX going HARD. Thunder snow and 2+" per hr rates, 65mph gust. 2-3FT. lwx.jpg to accomplish the amts of snow forecasted you would have to have 3-4 in snowfall per hr for many hrs, that's whiteout conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 to accomplish the amts of snow forecasted you would have to have 3-4 in snowfall per hr for many hrs, that's whiteout conditions. That is funny, 'cuz NWS Blacksburg sent out emails to spotters around midnight asking for help in amounts and start times and they mentioned 4 in rates possible, I'd think from the models that up there would be even higher rates than here....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GirlForAllSeasons Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I have a serious question... Would there be a threat of storm surge inside the eastern tributaries of the bay? I just heard the marine forcast on the news and it sounds like several hours of prolonged easterly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looking at the 6z RGEM and NAM-4K on Tropical Tidbits (with their fixed 10:1 ratio) and looks to be 3.5 to 4' jackpots there too, in line with the insane GFS. I recall Sterling indicated a 12:1 average ratio yesterday, which would bring their totals right to what GFS is showing. All three models (GFS, RGEM, NAM-4K) now show the surface low retrograding over the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This 06z update shows pretty clearly the presence of a dry slot that wasn't shown in the 00z version. And while is shows a very strong 2nd round moving in, it also makes it clear how reliant DC is on deformation banding to really produce for HECT or else the overall snowfall projection is in jeopardy. To go from no indication of a dry slot for DC with the 00z data to now having a dry slot with the 06z data, I'll be anxious to see the 12z update. DCA is around 2.4" QPF all snow on 06z RGEM: R9_RN_S9_SN_G9_PE_Z9_FR_METE_0000_Washington.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I have a serious question... Would there be a threat of storm surge inside the eastern tributaries of the bay? I just heard the marine forcast on the news and it sounds like several hours of prolonged easterly winds. CBOFS is not predicting that; wind direction prevents water backing up into the bay: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/ofs_animation.shtml?ofsregion=cb&subdomain=0&model_type=wl_forecast For instance, Annapolis: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/ofs_station.shtml?stname=Annapolis&ofs=cb&stnid=8575512&subdomain=0 And Baltimore: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/ofs_station.shtml?stname=Baltimore&ofs=cb&stnid=8574680&subdomain=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GirlForAllSeasons Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 CBOFS is not predicting that; wind direction prevents water backing up into the bay: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/ofs_animation.shtml?ofsregion=cb&subdomain=0&model_type=wl_forecast For instance, Annapolis: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/ofs_station.shtml?stname=Annapolis&ofs=cb&stnid=8575512&subdomain=0 And Baltimore: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/ofs_station.shtml?stname=Baltimore&ofs=cb&stnid=8574680&subdomain=0 Thanks! Ocmd has a period tomorrow morning where they go over five feet. Not sure if that is depelarture from the normal high tide or if that is just cumulative... But either way it could get serious down there nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 From the WPC discussion: WPC AMOUNTS UTILIZED WPC QPF WITH A THERMAL BLEND OF THE GFS ANDECMWF...DISCOUNTING THE NAM AND SREF ESPECIALLY ACROSS THENORTHEAST ON DAY 2 AS NORTHERLY OUTLIERS. OVERALL FORECASTCONFIDENCE WAS ABOVE AVERAGE...BOLSTERED BY FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENTBETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. CONFIDENCE WAS TEMPERED SOME BY THE 00ZECMWF...WHICH IS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT WHICH WOULDHAMPER AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.IN ADDITION...STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A TIGHTNORTHERN GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERNNEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE NAM AND A NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS ARELIKELY TOO FAR TO THE NORTH...A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE LOW TRACK MAYREQUIRE ADJUSTING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am no expert but that sounds bad. It sounds to me like they are saying that it's gonna stop early here in the Washington DC area and than snow harder north of us. Geez!!! They are saying their confidence of the 2 foot plus totals is tempered for the areas that might dryslot (which includes DC), they aren't saying what is or isn't going to happen definitively. I think we'll be more confident about the placement of the dryslot when the 12z suite is complete and hopefully it'll look different than what the euro showed last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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