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STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I think Saturday is a real wildcard and I am excited to see how it unfolds...As far as through 12z Saturday morning the guidance is all pretty much set that we get smoked to some degree

If forced to make a call I'll go with minimal to no dry slot into DC. I think all the main features are likely to be a bit south compared to our recent big events. Which IMO might give us a legitimate shot for something special. But... I've been wrong before. My seasonal snow call is toast by midnight tomorrow hah. Then again I nastily crushed this pattern from range. Baby steps.

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

I think his point was that we should stop worrying about QPF maps and just enjoy the atmospheric beauty of the storm. Someone is going to get walloped.

 

we all agree on that...there was a group melt over confusion about the euro....We are a VERY good forum, and everyone here has perspective and will appreciate this storm.  We have all been together a long time.  This happens every storm.  The euro issue was confusing and it was an extremely poor time to roll in and dress us down.

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted

The fact that you have not been paying attention to Richmond on the European model for the Past few Run is not your fault because you are such a stupid little person ...but the last several runs on a European have consistently kept it all Snow

of coruse it's all snow but it's warmer and ratios arnt as good. No way it's showing 24 to 27
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insanegrenade

insanegrenade

Posted
Posted

NWS Baltimore/DC:::::

249 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO

6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING

SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SLEET MAY MIX

WITH THE SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF

INTERSTATE 95 BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY

AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF MORE THAN 2 FEET.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND

CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO

DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW...

STRONGEST WINDS...AND POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS

EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS

CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL

IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING

THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VISIBILITY

WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 




URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC



249 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016



DCZ001-MDZ013-014-503>506-VAZ053-054-505-506-221600-



/O.CON.KLWX.BZ.W.0001.160122T2000Z-160124T1100Z/



DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-



NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-



NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-FAIRFAX-



ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-



249 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016



...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO



6 AM EST SUNDAY...



* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING



  SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SLEET MAY MIX



  WITH THE SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF



  INTERSTATE 95 BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY



  AFTERNOON.



* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF MORE THAN 2 FEET.



* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND



  CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO



  DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW...



  STRONGEST WINDS...AND POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS



  EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.



* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS



  CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL



  IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING



  THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VISIBILITY



  WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.



* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.



* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.







			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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		yoda
	

				
				
			

		

		

			

				


yoda
			

			

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ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
327 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

DCZ001-VAZ054-221200-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ARLINGTON...ALEXANDRIA
327 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM
EST SUNDAY...

.REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TODAY...CLOUDY. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND
AN INCH. HIGHS AROUND 30. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
SNOW 80 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BLOWING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 14 INCHES. WINDY
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH...INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SLEET IN THE MORNING. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW.
SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.
NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. BLOWING SNOW.
BRISK WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.
CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.


			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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		Roger Smith
	

				
				
			

		

		

			

				


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The precip modelling on the NAM seems to drift a bit further north than the logic of the system would suggest, so really if that were the case, the NAM guidance would be more similar to the earlier GFS and GGEM. But this has more implications for snowfall amounts outside this forum anyway. I would be happy with the guidance in se PA and the southern two thirds of NJ, somewhat optimistic in NYC and LI, pessimistic in s NE.


 


As far as the main course, what I see developing from the current obs in the southeast would be a situation where the primary low continues to deepen steadily enough that it continues to feed in additional moisture faster than land can degrade it, so that much of the region should experience almost steady-state moderate to heavy snowfall conditions and dry slot issues will begin to fade out of the circulation altogether by the time the wrap-around establishes itself over se VA. I do expect a ragged radar presentation at times over southern Chesapeake Bay as the last gasp of this dry slotting tendency.


 


Offshore the low will become more and more anchored by the upper low which will have the effect of slowing the forward progress of the storm to a crawl. Slight jogs or near loops are possible as a result from 09z to 21z Saturday. Warm fronts will make almost no progress into the cold dome which is being forced to hold its position by weak energy in the arctic stream over Hudson Bay. I'm noting that the coldest temperatures ahead of the storm now are in w PA and central WV. There is even weak warm advection in parts of Michigan and Ontario from the northern stream. This is going to prevent the coastal from getting too intrusive with its warm fronts, they will slam to a halt when the low veers more east than northeast off the southern Delmarva.


 


I don't know if the Euro will have any piece of the solution or whether a GFS-GGEM-fixed NAM as I outlined would be the better basis for a forecast here. Without any real dry slotting or hit or miss banding, the storm will only have to produce moderate snow three quarters of the time to surpass 20" and I think it may produce heavy snow for at least six if not nine of the observational hours -- those hours can easily accumulate 2-3 inches an hour.


 


Would be watching for any trends on short-range models to deepen low slightly. The presentation is so good at present that central pressures to 980 mbs quite plausible over 20-23 C Gulf stream by afternoon Saturday.



			
		


		

		
	


	

	





	
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