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STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
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Wxbell is up now. I wouldn't be worried yet what the Euro does at hour 42. It takes the low at 36 which looks perfectly positioned and then sends it due east 300 miles at 42 yet the deform bands sets up well west. Looks weird to me.

Ah, now it makes more sense in my brain. It's the same double low weirdness. At hr 42 the eastern low near the triple point is going off. The "dryslot" looks more like subsidence in the deform because of convection over the ocean. That 2 low interaction is causing a lot of jumps with the euro during the transition from waa to ccb. The 42hr panel could be right but it's suspect in my eyes.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

Wxbell is up now. I wouldn't be worried yet what the Euro does at hour 42. It takes the low at 36 which looks perfectly positioned and then sends it due east 300 miles at 42 yet the deform bands sets up well west. Looks weird to me.

It is model sensitivity to deep convection. All the models are going to struggle here, and even the best will have potential large run-to-run issues with how deep convection alters the entire synoptic picture. It would be interesting to see how the higher res para ECMWF simulates the DMC as it becomes displaced to the east of the upper low center and more oriented with the coupled jet max. Either way, once again, this storm is going to be incredible and rather widespread for significant accums. Enjoy it, Alaska has suffered through 3 awful winters. At least you have something.

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

This is exhausting, so basically the whole run is not happening?.

 

 - As of now we have NO data between hour 12 and hour 24.  So we do NOT know how much falls in that period.  Probably only like 0.1 for DC and less for you. 

 

 - There are 6 hour panels available for AFTER that period.  That data is available.  So we have data for MOST of the storm.

 

 - Whatever WXbell is showing for total precip is bogus because it includes some weird panel at 24 that shouldnt even exist.

 

It's a good run for you...You probably get like 1.9 or something like that

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ravensrule

ravensrule

Posted
Posted

 - As of now we have NO data between hour 12 and hour 24.  So we do NOT know how much falls in that period.  Probably only like 0.1 for DC and less for you. 

 

 - There are 6 hour panels available for AFTER that period.  That data is available.  So we have data for MOST of the storm.

 

 - Whatever WXbell is showing for total precip is bogus because it includes some weird panel at 24 that shouldnt even exist.

 

It's a good run for you...You probably get like 1.9 or something like that

Thanks Matt, i appreciate your detailed explanation.

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MacintoshPro

MacintoshPro

Posted
Posted

- As of now we have NO data between hour 12 and hour 24. So we do NOT know how much falls in that period. Probably only like 0.1 for DC and less for you.

- There are 6 hour panels available for AFTER that period. That data is available. So we have data for MOST of the storm.

- Whatever WXbell is showing for total precip is bogus because it includes some weird panel at 24 that shouldnt even exist.

It's a good run for you...You probably get like 1.9 or something like that

24 hour panel on wxbell is fixed. Looks like 0.4 for DCA. Wxbell total precip looks right.

Front end thump is crushing on this run. If not for dry slot DCA would easily have 2'+

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JonathanW

JonathanW

Posted
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 - As of now we have NO data between hour 12 and hour 24.  So we do NOT know how much falls in that period.  Probably only like 0.1 for DC and less for you. 

 

 - There are 6 hour panels available for AFTER that period.  That data is available.  So we have data for MOST of the storm.

 

 - Whatever WXbell is showing for total precip is bogus because it includes some weird panel at 24 that shouldnt even exist.

 

It's a good run for you...You probably get like 1.9 or something like that

I like the 24 hour panel. It's the storm that broke the models.

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

Wxbell has the 24 hour panel fixed - looks like .4 for DCA. 2" total QPF with perhaps a little bit more missing In the 18 hour panel.

 

There is almost no way that panel is right and if Wxbell is trying to estimate it is BS....

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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the euro is unimpressive Saturday after 12z. if its right....people will wake up and see a normal steady snow and say it was a bust. 12z to 18z is .39 and 18z to 00z is .23 for JYO. then its pretty much over

lol there's a huge band over you and just west 12-18z

 

winchester gets .6 and I get .1 that panel.

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HighStakes

HighStakes

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Ah, now it makes more sense in my brain. It's the same double low weirdness. At hr 42 the eastern low near the triple point is going off. The "dryslot" looks more like subsidence in the deform because of convection over the ocean. That 2 low interaction is causing a lot of jumps with the euro during the transition from waa to ccb. The 42hr panel could be right but it's suspect in my eyes.

I just looked again at 36. The low is actually almost directly over Norfolk. 

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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
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In reality. All we need to do is look at this and know we are getting crushed tomorrow. The Euro still wouldnt have been able to tell us reliably who gets in the deform band.

 

You guys should be paying attention more to this than begging for QPF maps.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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In reality. All we need to do is look at this and know we are getting crushed tomorrow. The Euro still wouldnt have been able to tell us reliably who gets in the deform band.

 

Yes. It seems that many in this day and age of instant satisfaction find it difficult to accept what they have/get and to be happy with it. Let the atmosphere tell the story. Of course, for those who are actually forecasting, they do NEED to pay attention to the small details, but here, this is going to be a pretty incredible storm regardless for the remainder who are simply watching and savoring (or...worrying).

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