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STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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AlaskaETC

AlaskaETC

Posted
Posted

it's actually wetter for us than 12z except for the 12z - 18z period when we get dryslotted...if that never happens, we are over 2"

 

we are about 1.3 through 12z which is sick....

 

What's your estimation on the chances we get dry slotted? Sorry if that's a stupid question....I know Baroclinic Zone mentioned it's possible.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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Thanks...we'll see what happens. Kinda funny since the radio show dismissed fears of a dry slot.

IMHO, every intense storm has the potential for dryslotting to be a problem. It really takes a special scenario for the dry slot not to rear its ugly head. Regardless, it is just one model run, and it is still a helluva storm. To be totally fair, I will say I was unable to listen to the show, and those guys are top notch. Plus, I did not see the latest model guidance a few days ago--I am sure things were drastically different. Even looking back 3 ECMWF runs, the northern stream coupled jet was much better aligned a few runs ago, and it isn't a huge surprise (that the model depiction of the jet dynamics/orientation has changed so much) since this much deep convection can really completely throw off the model depictions of the relevant upper level/PV/jet stream fields.

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Ian

Ian

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DCA gets dry slotted for a period which was my biggest fear

yeah I've worried more about that than mixing. pretty much the only reason not to go crazy with numbers imo. That said, I sorta think that's a problem with any of our top end events. In snowmageddon it was within throwing distance for a bit.

 

As Will talked about last night being right on the dry slot is usually where winning happens. Makes sense just from a general convective POV given that mid-level dry air feeds it in all cases not just in a winter storm. 

 

radar_composite_100205-06.gif

 

https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/files/2015/02/radar_composite_100205-06.gif

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
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What's your estimation on the chances we get dry slotted? Sorry if that's a stupid question....I know Baroclinic Zone mentioned it's possible.

 

In DC,  I think the chances of a quasi-dryslot on Saturday are 30%?  This run smokes us overnight...It will be interesting to see what happens Saturday morning...I think Euro is a worst case scenario for saturday...And we probably still get 1.85" from this run...

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AlaskaETC

AlaskaETC

Posted
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IMHO, every intense storm has the potential for dryslotting to be a problem. It really takes a special scenario for the dry slot not to rear its ugly head. Regardless, it is just one model run, and it is still a helluva storm. To be totally fair, I will say I was unable to listen to the show, and those guys are top notch. Plus, I did not see the latest model guidance a few days ago--I am sure things were drastically different. Even looking back 3 ECMWF runs, the northern stream coupled jet was much better aligned a few runs ago, and it isn't a huge surprise (that the model depiction of the jet dynamics/orientation has changed so much) since this much deep convection can really completely throw off the model depictions of the relevant upper level/PV/jet stream fields.

 

Thanks, great explanation.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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it's actually wetter for us than 12z except for the 12z - 18z period when we get dryslotted...if that never happens, we are over 2"

 

we are about 1.3 through 12z which is sick....

I might just be weenieing but the GFS has been so insanely consistent at levels other than the sfc precip thing but it's hard not to with that kind of solution being favored--dialed back on precip probably. Seems that's the predominant consensus. I guess there's the EE rule or whatever though heh. Then again I have no clue what the Euro looks like past 15. Weekend rule outdoes it.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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In DC, I think the chances of a quasi-dryslot on Saturday are 30%? This run smokes us overnight...It will be interesting to see what happens Saturday morning...I think Euro is a worst case scenario for saturday...And we probably still get 1.85" from this run...

Of course I wish I could see the high resolution panels before thinking it through but imo- if the euro cranked up the front end then that's great either way. That stuff is money in the bank. Deform without drysloting is always a nail biter here.

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AlaskaETC

AlaskaETC

Posted
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This is exhausting, so basically the whole run is not happening?.

It seems like something went wrong with the model, the numbers may be right, but the process it represented seems a little crooked. I'm a weenie, so that opinion may be totally wrong.

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