STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

[Deck Pic]

JYO is 2.02 minus the missing 0z to 6z slot

 

it's the 18z - 0z slot...it's probably on like 0.1 that is missing for us...

[baroclinic_instability]

The ECMWF is a tick north (but barely) on Wunderground at 33 hours. What the EC is probably simulating is something that tends to happen in systems where deep, moist convection is driving rather intense latent heat release aloft...the dry slot tends to drive thru faster and the TROWAL tends to form a tad farther N (or NW depending on upper level jet orientation). 

[Ji]

it's the 18z - 0z slot...it's probably on like 0.1 that is missing for us...

its both slots

 

18z to 00z

00z to 06z

[Bob Chill]

Ji, just in case...compare what you see to the 12z run

[Ji]

winchester is 2.24 with 2 missing slots

[Yeoman]

its both slots

 

18z to 00z

00z to 06z

1.0" minimum

[HighStakes]

BWI 1.55 but missing 18z friday to 0z saturday.

[Ji]

winchester is 2.24 with 2 missing slots

for winchester..the 2 missing slots for 12z were .38. The 00z is way wetter for them than 12z

[baroclinic_instability]

What the GFS/RGEM are simulating is the complete opposite...immense LHR aloft stalling the progression of the 500 hpa S/W trough through PV destruction, which keeps the deform band in place for hours.  Tough call...it really is differences in model precip/convective/microphysics/physics schemes. 

[AlaskaETC]

So can we confirm that the 0z-6z slots are indeed missing?

[nj2va]

Rereading Ji's post, it does look like it's missing two panels.  The 2nd panel is there except for the QPF

 

CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DCA LAT= 38.85 LON= -77.03 ELE= 16

00Z JAN22
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
FRI 00Z 22-JAN -2.3 -7.7 1027 51 16 553 532
FRI 06Z 22-JAN -3.6 -7.1 1027 52 17 0.00 554 533
FRI 12Z 22-JAN -3.6 -6.2 1027 54 33 0.00 555 535
FRI 18Z 22-JAN
SAT 00Z 23-JAN -4.0 -6.6 1019 86 99           551 536
SAT 06Z 23-JAN -3.8 -3.9 1010 87 100 0.52 546 539
SAT 12Z 23-JAN -3.4 -5.1 1002 82 94 0.71 538 536
SAT 18Z 23-JAN -3.3 -5.9 1003 81 71 0.18 536 534
SUN 00Z 24-JAN -2.6 -7.0 1009 80 98 0.23 537 530
SUN 06Z 24-JAN -3.4 -5.1 1013 69 81 0.05 543 533 

[Deck Pic]

its both slots

 

18z to 00z

00z to 06z

 

It's only missing the 1st slot..you arent reading the output right....

[HighStakes]

DCA 1.7. only missing 18z friday to 0z saturday.

[Ji]

for winchester..the 2 missing slots for 12z were .38. The 00z is way wetter for them than 12z

winchester was 1.83 12z 

Wincehster is 2.24 00z with 2 missing panels

[Deck Pic]

So can we confirm that the 0z-6z slots are indeed missing?

 

They're not missing....I have the maps except for those 2 panels...

[clskinsfan]

for winchester..the 2 missing slots for 12z were .38. The 00z is way wetter for them than 12z

 

So its at least 2.5. Sounds in line with the UK.

[HighStakes]

That can't be more than .1 or .2 max, so either way it sucks.

Don't worry. People are losing reality. 1.5-1.8 is a ton of liquid. Plus we have all seen the Euro do this. Even if it's right we all do fine.

[HighStakes]

So can we confirm that the 0z-6z slots are indeed missing?

They are not missing

[Deck Pic]

DCA gets dry slotted for a period which was my biggest fear

[HighStakes]

It's only missing the 1st slot..you arent reading the output right....

Correct

[AlaskaETC]

DCA gets dry slotted for a period which was my biggest fear

Thanks...we'll see what happens. Kinda funny since the radio show dismissed fears of a dry slot.

[baroclinic_instability]

For those who want the ECMWF...it is thru 78 hours on wunderground. And there you can actually analyze what differences there are and why instead of just reading QPF totals. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap

[Deck Pic]

your right. The run sucks

 

it doesnt suck for western folks

[Ian]

That can't be more than .1 or .2 max, so either way it sucks.

It is faster than earlier from what we have. About 6 hrs so almost. So maybe take the 0-6z as comparison from 12z. 

[ravensrule]

Don't worry. People are losing reality. 1.5-1.8 is a ton of liquid. Plus we have all seen the Euro do this. Even if it's right we all do fine.

I meant in relation to all the other models. Obviously 15-20" is great.

[HighStakes]

it doesnt suck for western folks

 

Still looks a heck of a front end for you.

[Ji]

Jyo 2.06

winchester 2.20

MRB 2.05

FDK 1.96

DCA 1.68:(

SBY: 1.28

[Deck Pic]

It is faster than earlier from what we have. About 6 hrs so almost. So maybe take the 0-6z as comparison from 12z. 

 

it's actually wetter for us than 12z except for the 12z - 18z period when we get dryslotted...if that never happens, we are over 2"

 

we are about 1.3 through 12z which is sick....

[ravensrule]

It is faster than earlier from what we have. About 6 hrs so almost. So maybe take the 0-6z as comparison from 12z. 

Great idea. It is about .25".

[JonathanW]

Cmon guys the Euro could be just as wrong or right as many other models on where dry slot ends up.  Nowcast wait and see.

 

I agree. Frankly, the GFS/RGEM runs earlier were jaw-dropping. The discrepancy between the GFS and Euro 24-36 hours out is an interesting situation. No way to know, I suppose, whether the 00z Euro had the benefit of the extra soundings. But one way or another, we'll find out which is right (or maybe neither will be).