STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

[JonathanW]

Sorry - no further incoming 00z updates after the 12 hour ones.

 

When you say "stuck," are you meaning the model is stuck or the storm on the model has stalled?

[HighStakes]

1.9 for Westminster. Wetter up north.

[Yeoman]

euro txt output still has it pretty dry. Around 2 inches of jyo

Time to put the models to bed. It's all about water vapor and barometric pressure.

[NinjaWarrior2]

1.9 for Westminster. Wetter up north.

BWI, PHL, APG, MTN? Can you bring them up

[Ji]

accuweather is missing 2 rows

 

CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DCA LAT= 38.85 LON= -77.03 ELE= 16

00Z JAN22
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
FRI 00Z 22-JAN -2.3 -7.7 1027 51 16 553 532
FRI 06Z 22-JAN -3.6 -7.1 1027 52 17 0.00 554 533
FRI 12Z 22-JAN -3.6 -6.2 1027 54 33 0.00 555 535
FRI 18Z 22-JAN
SAT 00Z 23-JAN -4.0 -6.6 1019 86 99           551 536
SAT 06Z 23-JAN -3.8 -3.9 1010 87 100 0.52 546 539
SAT 12Z 23-JAN -3.4 -5.1 1002 82 94 0.71 538 536
SAT 18Z 23-JAN -3.3 -5.9 1003 81 71 0.18 536 534
SUN 00Z 24-JAN -2.6 -7.0 1009 80 98 0.23 537 530
SUN 06Z 24-JAN -3.4 -5.1 1013 69 81 0.05 543 533 

[Ian]

Time to put the models to bed. It's all about water vapor and barometric pressure.

30.32 baby. Let's do this.

[DCAlexandria]

euro output did something funky there, model error move on.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

hr 18 and 24 are missing hr 30- 36 look damn good for dc ric cho

[stormtracker]

What the hell is going on?

[Ian]

This is the American redemption storm. The euro is already falling apart in response.

[lilhill]

hr 18 and 24 are missing hr 30- 36 look damn good for dc ric cho

 

What are you seeing for RIC?

[Yeoman]

30.32 baby. Let's do this.

30.30 is optimal for full 56K throughput

[BTRWx]

hr 18 and 24 are missing hr 30- 36 look damn good for dc ric cho

About to say, early wxbell frames looked decent!

[Ji]

whatever its missing...it seems drier than the other models....

[stormtracker]

30.30 is optimal for full 56K throughput

Euro is using AOL.

[Ji]

whatever its missing...it seems drier than the other models....

its missing the qpf amount from 00z to 06z

[HighStakes]

BWI, PHL, APG, MTN? Can you bring them up

BWI 1.55 but missing the first 6 hour period. MTN same as BWI.

[Deck Pic]

I have it out past 60....It's missing those 2 panels...JI's data is a little bogus because it doesn't have what falls before 7pm

[stormtracker]

its missing the qpf amount from 00z to 06z

That's a decent chunk of qpf going by the other models

[JonathanW]

whatever its missing...it seems drier than the other models.

 

Wonder if it had the Hurricane Hunter dropsonde input?

[Ian]

whatever its missing...it seems drier than the other models....

If it's two panels it's probably the ones that have the 2" qpf balls. So give me DCA and I'll be conservative and add 3.5".

[hokierulz98]

No wondering qpf is light Euro's missing 18 and 24 hours. Good job Euro!

[Ji]

JYO is 2.02 minus the missing 0z to 6z slot

[HighStakes]

phl 1.6

[BTRWx]

How often does the Euro do something like this? I personally have never seen it.

[JonathanW]

Whatever the problem is, both WXBell and EuroWX completely stalled in loading. Do-over!

[Ji]

add the missing slots and its probably very similar to 12z which sucked. Euro is not a short range model anyway:)

[clskinsfan]

Man. You couldnt ask for worse data to lose. That should be right when the storm is getting fired up. Thats basically our entire front end thump.

[MacintoshPro]

With 1.7" at DCA and two panels of decent precip missing euro is likely 2"+. Get some sleep before tomorrow night snow weenies!

[ORH_wxman]

00z to 06z has been between close to 0.50" on most other guidance in the DC region. A little more on the NAM and GFS, a little less on RGEM.