andyhb Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I was chatting about this with Anthony (HM) on Twitter. This storm has every element you want to look for in a historic snowstorm, not only in this region, but any other one. Classic coupled UL jet with strong upper level divergence enhanced by a super Nino infused sub-tropical feed, moisture trajectories coming from multiple sources including a very warm Gulf of Mexico and W Atlantic, very strong lift in the DGZ with possible vigorous convective elements (+TSSN), the much talked about textbook 500 mb low positioning and surface low track, the list goes on and on. If there ever was a storm that could quite easily drop 2-3'+ in the DC/Baltimore corridor and west, this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 OMFG. Prepare to faint. 0Z GFS Cobb numbers.....MRB 56.5 inches. IAD 46.3 inches. DCA 30.7 inches. MRB: 60124/0300Z 51 34007KT 25.2F SNOW 16:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.141 17:1| 56.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.28 100| 0| 0 IAD: 160124/0600Z 54 33008KT 24.0F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 13:1| 46.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.63 100| 0| 0 DCA: 160124/0600Z 54 35013KT 25.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049 10:1| 30.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.94 100| 0| 0 BWI: 160124/0600Z 54 36022KT 27.2F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 10:1| 25.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.55 100| 0| 0 RIC: 160124/0600Z 54 35012KT 27.2F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 10:1| 26.8|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 3.39 100| 0| 0 CHO: 160124/0600Z 54 32004KT 20.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 12:1| 27.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.27 0| 0| 0 WOO: 160124/0900Z 57 30004KT 11.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 16:1| 42.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.66 0| 0| 0 I know it's crazy numbers and all...but what's with the low ratios? Seen that before in that output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 OMFG. Prepare to faint. 0Z GFS Cobb numbers.....MRB 56.5 inches. IAD 46.3 inches. DCA 30.7 inches. MRB: 60124/0300Z 51 34007KT 25.2F SNOW 16:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.141 17:1| 56.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.28 100| 0| 0 IAD: 160124/0600Z 54 33008KT 24.0F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 13:1| 46.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.63 100| 0| 0 DCA: 160124/0600Z 54 35013KT 25.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049 10:1| 30.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.94 100| 0| 0 BWI: 160124/0600Z 54 36022KT 27.2F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 10:1| 25.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.55 100| 0| 0 RIC: 160124/0600Z 54 35012KT 27.2F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 10:1| 26.8|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 3.39 100| 0| 0 CHO: 160124/0600Z 54 32004KT 20.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 12:1| 27.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.27 0| 0| 0 WOO: 160124/0900Z 57 30004KT 11.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 16:1| 42.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.66 0| 0| 0 I don't see RIC beating BWI with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Worried about an earlier start time based on HRRR and the RAP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I know it's crazy numbers and all...but what's with the low ratios? Seen that before in that output. I only posted the last lines of the outputs or it would take up an entire page. So you are only seeing the very last flurries as the storm pulls away. The numbers are ridiculous. But its fun to look at. And that MRB number is by far the largest I have ever seen. The QPF numbers are all that really matter. If you figure 12 to 1 out here it would be almost 40 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I only posted the last lines of the outputs or it would take up an entire page. So you are only seeing the very last flurries as the storm pulls away. The numbers are ridiculous. But its fun to look at. And that MRB number is by far the largest I have ever seen. Ah, OK...thanks. Yeah, they are just ridiculous (and fun) to look at indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I was chatting about this with Anthony (HM) on Twitter. This storm has every element you want to look for in a historic snowstorm, not only in this region, but any other one. Classic coupled UL jet with strong upper level divergence enhanced by a super Nino infused sub-tropical feed, moisture trajectories coming from multiple sources including a very warm Gulf of Mexico and W Atlantic, very strong lift in the DGZ with possible vigorous convective elements (+TSSN), the much talked about textbook 500 mb low positioning and surface low track, the list goes on and on. If there ever was a storm that could quite easily drop 2-3'+ in the DC/Baltimore corridor and west, this is it. I can't wait to read the recaps from the mets about this storm (the setup, pattern, etc)...it'll be quite the write-up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I was chatting about this with Anthony (HM) on Twitter. This storm has every element you want to look for in a historic snowstorm, not only in this region, but any other one. Classic coupled UL jet with strong upper level divergence enhanced by a super Nino infused sub-tropical feed, moisture trajectories coming from multiple sources including a very warm Gulf of Mexico and W Atlantic, very strong lift in the DGZ with possible vigorous convective elements (+TSSN), the much talked about textbook 500 mb low positioning and surface low track, the list goes on and on. If there ever was a storm that could quite easily drop 2-3'+ in the DC/Baltimore corridor and west, this is it. Thanks for that info. I wish he would post here more like he used to. I guess he got too busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sorry if this has been addressed, but how are we looking in terms of humidity? Will there be a lot of virga to deal with at the onset of the storm or are we expecting the skies to open up right away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I know it's crazy numbers and all...but what's with the low ratios? Seen that before in that output. It might be the strong winds breaking dendrites apart. Mets have mentioned this earlier, it might have been ers-wxman. The strong winds break the dendrites up, and the broken dendrites dont accumulate as well as full dendrites would without the strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sorry if this has been addressed, but how are we looking in terms of humidity? Will there be a lot of virga to deal with at the onset of the storm or are we expecting the skies to open up right away? on the radio show they said that due to the colder temperatures atmosphere would not take long to saturate and go from light snow to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro gets here faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro gets here faster In line with short range guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro is stuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Tropical tidbits has 24hrs for Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro at 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanW Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well, the system looks like it has a lot of moisture at Euro 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 At 48 hrs, position looks very similar to 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W4CGT Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro still stuck at 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sometimes y'all should just enjoy the mastery of the atmosphere and the incredible show that this is going to be. I see lots of worrying about snow ratios, the latest model QPF, etc. Just accept it for what it is, and you will probably enjoy it a helluva lot more. Be mindful and present of what truly complex processes the atmosphere is about to unleash. Analyze and process, think of what the atmosphere is doing while the event unfolds, and not always what the models are doing. Then when the snow flies, think of all the microphysical interactions that result in what you are experiencing and seeing. Don't worry about the end result, just enjoy the moment. For starters, this: words really don'y need to be added, and we have some incredible weather in AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanW Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro at both WXBell and EuroWX are still stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Tropical tidbits has it at 24 he interval. Low in NE SC at 24, hundreds of miles se of Boston at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Surface low about the same, 500mb low is slightly north of the GFS. Got a pretty good feeling. At 48 hrs, position looks very similar to 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks similar in position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 euro txt output still has it pretty dry. Around 2 inches of jyo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 When you say "stuck," are you meaning the model is stuck or the storm on the model has stalled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 super dry....1.68 for DCA Wow. This is either going to be a huge coup for the Euro or knock the king off it's throne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 When you say "stuck," are you meaning the model is stuck or the storm on the model has stalled? Not loading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 When you say "stuck," are you meaning the model is stuck or the storm on the model has stalled? The former. It was stuck at 12 hours for a while but I think it's coming in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wow. This is either going to be a huge coup for the Euro or knock the king off it's throne. Even if the Euro is right... that is still 1.5 feet of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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