Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

Recommended Posts

andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted

I was chatting about this with Anthony (HM) on Twitter. This storm has every element you want to look for in a historic snowstorm, not only in this region, but any other one. Classic coupled UL jet with strong upper level divergence enhanced by a super Nino infused sub-tropical feed, moisture trajectories coming from multiple sources including a very warm Gulf of Mexico and W Atlantic, very strong lift in the DGZ with possible vigorous convective elements (+TSSN), the much talked about textbook 500 mb low positioning and surface low track, the list goes on and on. If there ever was a storm that could quite easily drop 2-3'+ in the DC/Baltimore corridor and west, this is it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

OMFG. Prepare to faint. 0Z GFS Cobb numbers.....MRB 56.5 inches. IAD 46.3 inches. DCA 30.7 inches.

 

 

MRB:

60124/0300Z 51 34007KT 25.2F SNOW 16:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.141 17:1| 56.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.28 100| 0| 0

 

IAD:

160124/0600Z 54 33008KT 24.0F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 13:1| 46.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.63 100| 0| 0

 

DCA:

160124/0600Z 54 35013KT 25.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049 10:1| 30.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.94 100| 0| 0

 

BWI:

160124/0600Z 54 36022KT 27.2F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 10:1| 25.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.55 100| 0| 0

 

RIC:

160124/0600Z 54 35012KT 27.2F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 10:1| 26.8|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 3.39 100| 0| 0

 

CHO:

160124/0600Z 54 32004KT 20.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 12:1| 27.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.27 0| 0| 0

 

WOO:

160124/0900Z 57 30004KT 11.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 16:1| 42.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.66 0| 0| 0

 

I know it's crazy numbers and all...but what's with the low ratios?  Seen that before in that output.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
caviman2201

caviman2201

Posted
Posted

OMFG. Prepare to faint. 0Z GFS Cobb numbers.....MRB 56.5 inches. IAD 46.3 inches. DCA 30.7 inches.

 

 

MRB:

60124/0300Z 51 34007KT 25.2F SNOW 16:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.141 17:1| 56.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.28 100| 0| 0

 

IAD:

160124/0600Z 54 33008KT 24.0F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 13:1| 46.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.63 100| 0| 0

 

DCA:

160124/0600Z 54 35013KT 25.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049 10:1| 30.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.94 100| 0| 0

 

BWI:

160124/0600Z 54 36022KT 27.2F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 10:1| 25.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.55 100| 0| 0

 

RIC:

160124/0600Z 54 35012KT 27.2F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 10:1| 26.8|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 3.39 100| 0| 0

 

CHO:

160124/0600Z 54 32004KT 20.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 12:1| 27.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.27 0| 0| 0

 

WOO:

160124/0900Z 57 30004KT 11.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 16:1| 42.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.66 0| 0| 0

 

I don't see RIC beating BWI with this... 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted

I know it's crazy numbers and all...but what's with the low ratios?  Seen that before in that output.

 

I only posted the last lines of the outputs or it would take up an entire page. So you are only seeing the very last flurries as the storm pulls away. The numbers are ridiculous. But its fun to look at. And that MRB number is by far the largest I have ever seen. The QPF numbers are all that really matter. If you figure 12 to 1 out here it would be almost 40 inches.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

I only posted the last lines of the outputs or it would take up an entire page. So you are only seeing the very last flurries as the storm pulls away. The numbers are ridiculous. But its fun to look at. And that MRB number is by far the largest I have ever seen. 

 

Ah, OK...thanks.  Yeah, they are just ridiculous (and fun) to look at indeed!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted

I was chatting about this with Anthony (HM) on Twitter. This storm has every element you want to look for in a historic snowstorm, not only in this region, but any other one. Classic coupled UL jet with strong upper level divergence enhanced by a super Nino infused sub-tropical feed, moisture trajectories coming from multiple sources including a very warm Gulf of Mexico and W Atlantic, very strong lift in the DGZ with possible vigorous convective elements (+TSSN), the much talked about textbook 500 mb low positioning and surface low track, the list goes on and on. If there ever was a storm that could quite easily drop 2-3'+ in the DC/Baltimore corridor and west, this is it.

 

I can't wait to read the recaps from the mets about this storm (the setup, pattern, etc)...it'll be quite the write-up!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ravensrule

ravensrule

Posted
Posted

I was chatting about this with Anthony (HM) on Twitter. This storm has every element you want to look for in a historic snowstorm, not only in this region, but any other one. Classic coupled UL jet with strong upper level divergence enhanced by a super Nino infused sub-tropical feed, moisture trajectories coming from multiple sources including a very warm Gulf of Mexico and W Atlantic, very strong lift in the DGZ with possible vigorous convective elements (+TSSN), the much talked about textbook 500 mb low positioning and surface low track, the list goes on and on. If there ever was a storm that could quite easily drop 2-3'+ in the DC/Baltimore corridor and west, this is it.

Thanks for that info. I wish he would post here more like he used to. I guess he got too busy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

I know it's crazy numbers and all...but what's with the low ratios?  Seen that before in that output.

It might be the strong winds breaking  dendrites apart. Mets have mentioned this earlier, it might have been ers-wxman. The strong winds break the dendrites up, and the broken dendrites dont accumulate as well as full dendrites would without the strong winds.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted

Sorry if this has been addressed, but how are we looking in terms of humidity? Will there be a lot of virga to deal with at the onset of the storm or are we expecting the skies to open up right away?

on the radio show they said that due to the colder temperatures atmosphere would not take long to saturate and go from light snow to heavy snow.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

Sometimes y'all should just enjoy the mastery of the atmosphere and the incredible show that this is going to be. I see lots of worrying about snow ratios, the latest model QPF, etc. Just accept it for what it is, and you will probably enjoy it a helluva lot more. Be mindful and present of what truly complex processes the atmosphere is about to unleash. Analyze and process, think of what the atmosphere is doing while the event unfolds, and not always what the models are doing. Then when the snow flies, think of all the microphysical interactions that result in what you are experiencing and seeing. Don't worry about the end result, just enjoy the moment.

 

For starters, this:

 

 

words really don'y need to be added, and we have some incredible weather in AK.

post-999-0-43590200-1453442626_thumb.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...