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STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
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Maybe a stupid question, but what if the dropsondes introduce bias to the models - eg if they are dropped in am unrepresentatively moist area of the current storm? Then, the bias would propagate through all the models.

Some of it could be that now that the storm is actually happening and not just a digital calculation at initialization that NWP is getting a better handle on how to evolve what is already there and not what might/should be there. That in combination with sounding data should by default improve accuracy down the line.

With that being said, I don't think the gfs was accurate qpf wise. We're starting to look really good for the deform stuff imo.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

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Some of it could be that now that the storm is actually happening and not just a digital calculation at initialization that NWP is getting a better handle on how to evolve what is already there and not what might/should be there. That in combination with sounding data should by default improve accuracy down the line.

With that being said, I don't think the gfs was accurate qpf wise. We're starting to look really good for the deform stuff imo.

 

Right now, barring any indication otherwise, I'm sure the absolute numbers are overdone.  But the expanse of the precip field and getting us into the deformation area is the key like you indicate.  Even dialing back on the crazy numbers, the GFS still upped the bar.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

UKMET :o

 

From hrs 36 to 48, UKIE probably moves no more than 50-100 miles... looks like there's a capture as well

 

It just sits there basically until later Saturday night.  I haven't bothered to add up those QPF panels but looks like four 6-h periods of >10mm or >15mm, from what I could read on those maps.

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high risk

high risk

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   sorry to nitpick, but the GEFS *should* support the OP at this range.   Its perturbations need time to grow, so it's tough to significantly diverge from the GFS solution within 72 hours.

 

I know its outside its range, but the GEFS mean is so tasty and looks so nice... supports the OP nicely

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ncskywarn

ncskywarn

Posted
Posted 
WPC Model DiscussionSYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGETHE 00Z NAM IS A NORTHWARD OUTLIER ALOFT SATURDAY MORNING BEFOREBECOMING A SLOW OUTLIER THEREAFTER -- THE NAM HAS A BIAS OFOCCASIONALLY BEING TOO SLOW.  A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12ZECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGECONFIDENCE.
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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

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   sorry to nitpick, but the GEFS *should* support the OP at this range.   Its perturbations need time to grow, so it's tough to significantly diverge from the GFS solution within 72 hours.

 

Good point, hence the reason they aren't much help at this range.  I was just curious just how similar it was to the ops.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

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Mitch, I remember chatting with you in Feb 2003 saying we will never seen anything like we're about to see.. I think I lied.

Well, you hid the lie for 13 years, so you get some credit! People jokingly throw around the expression "shelter in place" all the time here. This time it really is no joke.
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