STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

[EHoffman]

At 42 monster deathband all through DC/Balt/C MD/NoVa on GGEM

[yoda]

GGEM is going to be GFS-like when it comes to QPF I think

[LongRanger]

If the 0z GFS is gonna verify we want wind to blow some of that off the roof. Drifts will be massive.

[Ji]

GGEM is going to be GFS-like when it comes to QPF I think

we have always joked around about the BECS but this is looking like a BECS if these trends are true

[EHoffman]

GGEM is going to be GFS-like when it comes to QPF I think

No it's gonna be around 2.5 or so for DCA.  Not the crazy totals like GFS.

[Heisy]

GGEM also crushes Philly too.....I can join in on the fun too right? Looks like GFS really. 

 

This is amazing. Can't believe this is happening!

[JonathanW]

2" of water content on a 1500 sq foot roof comes to about 8 tons of extra weight. Normally, a well constructed roof in good shape should handle that much. But I wouldn't put my money on that roof holding up when you're getting toward the totals the GFS just predicted.

 

If the 0z GFS is gonna verify we want wind to blow some of that off the roof. Drifts will be massive.

[caviman2201]

GGEM QPF very similar to RGEM thru 36... 1-1.5" area-wide by 12z Sat.

[nj2va]

That's a sobering thought.

 

 

Depending on what the other 0z models do, that could be what the models are picking up on regarding the higher QPF amounts.  

[mitchnick]

The proof that there's more to come after the end of the run on the rgem is the 700mb rh map on the bottom left of the 4 maps. be sure to click on the map to make it bigger.

https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif

[Deck Pic]

GGEM Is a mauling....2.5" for DC, 2.5"+ for Fairfax/Loudon...2"+ for almost all of Central MD

[Subtropics]

Agree with Ian and Ji. This is the one. This is the BECS. We are about to hit the maximum potential possible for this area of the country.

[clueless]

That is a wall of moisture coming north.  Amazing.  Wow if it translates into a GFS like solution.

[AlaskaETC]

GGEM

 

 

[yoda]

Going to be interesting to see if the UKIE does the same as the GFS/GGEM

[needbiggerboat]

I assume the 00z GFS has the new data from the Hurricane Hunters but does anyone know if the 00z RGEM had that too?

This would imply beyond gfs

" The 0Z Friday suite of computer models tonight will be bolstered by data from dropsondes being released this evening by a NOAA Gulfstream-IV hurricane-hunter jet."

Bob Henson on WU Jeff Masters blog

[osfan24]

The weird thing is I expect that type of ridiculous qpf output from the NAM. You can easily write that off as the NAM being the NAM. I don't believe the GFS has any bias when it comes to overdoing qpf, so to see that much is startling and makes you wonder if maybe it is legit. It also has some support from the RGEM.

[84 Hour NAM]

GGEM Is a mauling....2.5" for DC, 2.5"+ for Fairfax/Loudon...2"+ for almost all of Central MD

I've got 2.9 for DCA. Where are your numbers from?

Re: GGEM

[ohleary]

This would imply beyond gfs

" The 0Z Friday suite of computer models tonight will be bolstered by data from dropsondes being released this evening by a NOAA Gulfstream-IV hurricane-hunter jet."

Bob Henson on WU Jeff Masters blog

Timing wise, I don't think the NAM gets but a few but they are all in for the GFS.

[Deck Pic]

I've got 2.9 for DCA. Where are your numbers from?

Re: GGEM

 

I don't have hi-res numbers yet....Is that meteocentre or wxbell?

[ohleary]

Plus the other globals will be assimilating them.

[ravensrule]

Going to be interesting to see if the UKIE does the same as the GFS/GGEM

If it does that would almost always mean the Euro will follow. Lets pray it's good.

[caviman2201]

CMC QPF:
 

BWI: 2.3"

DCA: 2.3"

IAD: 2.7"

 

From WxBell

[eurojosh]

Maybe a stupid question, but what if the dropsondes introduce bias to the models - eg if they are dropped in am unrepresentatively moist area of the current storm? Then, the bias would propagate through all the models.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

I know it's a bit silly to mention the ensembles at this point, but if the ops GFS was doing crazy stuff with convection (as mentioned from the radio show?), one would think the ensembles would smooth that out.  If they're even similar to what the ops GFS shows, then that might say something.  Just curious.

[jojo762]

If the 0z GFS is gonna verify we want wind to blow some of that off the roof. Drifts will be massive.

24-48in of snow + 50mph winds. Hmmmm...... Drifts from this will be talked about among locals for years.

[nj2va]

Check out the 500H map on the GFS.  

 

[mitchnick]

Check out the 500H map on the GFS.

And look how warm that map is for the rest of the country. We're on one heck of a cold island.

[yoda]

UKMET

 

From hrs 36 to 48, UKIE probably moves no more than 50-100 miles... looks like there's a capture as well

[mitchnick]

I've got 2.9 for DCA. Where are your numbers from?

Re: GGEM

More after the run ends.

https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_R1_north@america_I_QPFTYPES_t6_048.png