STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

[WinterWxLuvr]

Wes throwing up red flags on the GFS--says the model might be picking up on convective elements that isn't likely to cover such a large area. Really big bands somewhere and a nice deformation zone.

Edit: but oh how we pray...

That makes more sense than what it is showing.

[ravensrule]

I'm just looking at pure QPF.... no ratio confusion this way. 3"+ for most

I hear you. But at 11:1 this is 3' so it's not exaggerating at all.

[Bob Chill]

Gfs is almost certainly too extreme but seeing it and the RGEM is kind of a big deal. I'd bet a hundred bucks with even odds that the euro will be wetter. Not extreme and not a big jump but better.

[JonathanW]

Well, if this turns out remotely right, this storm just went from "fun" to "serious trouble". Lots of possible roof collapses, etc.

Agree with saving that map

[NorthArlington101]

That's the first time I can say a run makes me nervous, in a sense that I don't even want 3' of snow. Insane run, let's see if the EURO is even close to that.

[Windman18]

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012200&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=054

QPF, absolutely crazy

[Eskimo Joe]

Even if this verifies at 50-60% of what's modeled, roof collapses will be a major issue.

[ravensrule]

Gfs is almost certainly too extreme but seeing it and the RGEM is kind of a big deal. I'd bet a hundred bucks with even odds that the euro will be wetter. Not extreme and not a big jump but better.

I'm predicting 2.4" for Baltimore and 2.7" for DCA.

[Fozz]

I hear you. But at 11:1 this is 3' so it's not exaggerating at all.

 

Yep, the favored areas from JYO to I-81 get 3.5"+ of QPF. Craziest run ever... I don't know if 09-10 had a run like this

[clskinsfan]

This is the most outrageous GFS run I have ever seen. And we are like 16 hours from start time. I mean over 4 feet for MBY. 

[nj2va]

I assume the 00z GFS has the new data from the Hurricane Hunters but does anyone know if the 00z RGEM had that too?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Even if this verifies at 50-60% of what's modeled, roof collapses will be a major issue.

My worry wouldn't be so much from the snow totals themselves, but what might happen were we to get a good rain on it a few days later.

[Heisy]

Save that model run for your area, that is absolutely insane....NEVER seen the GFS show something like that. 

[Geos]

Wow guys, what a crazy (a.k.a biblical) run for VA, DC and MD!)

Am I seeing that right... 48-52" amounts NW/around Dulles!?

 

[NorthArlington101]

"Stormvista total shows a widespread 30" snow for D.C. and west... 3.6"qpf for Dulles... 3" for Richmond..."

Radio show

[Snowman.]

 

[nj2va]

Zoomed in QPF for posterity (likely on crack with its totals but I like seeing an increase in QPF 15 hours from the start of the storm).  3.0" for Arlington.  

 

[ravensrule]

Yep, the favored areas from JYO to I-81 get 3.5"+ of QPF. Craziest run ever... I don't know if 09-10 had a run like this

If i recall correctly only the NAM did. Never the GFS or EURO.

[84 Hour NAM]

The biggest total the GFS has EVER shown in northern Va was just shown. Goodnight everyone.

[NorthArlington101]

About off the charts on Tropical Tidbits.

I've noticed GFS keeps wanting to jackpot parts of Lower MD, feel like its been setting up a deathband for them for a few runs now.

[Amped]

48 inches of snow for McLean on a GFS run 36 hours out. I feel like I live in an alternate universe right now.

Yes Holy crap, 4.1" liquid in Leesburg. Insane. I don't know why it got so much wetter.

[B-Paq]

Zoomed in QPF for posterity (likely on crack with its totals but I like seeing an increase in QPF 15 hours from the start of the storm).  3.0" for Arlington.  

 

 

Doesn't this look like the GFS from a few runs ago with that odd bubble over Princess Anne?  There's gotta be something that the GFS isn't handling well - I can't fathom any of this mess coming to fruition.

[Snowman.]

RGEM QPF looks similar to the GFS

[Ian]

This is the one boys and girls. Buckle up.

[Amped]

Zoomed in QPF for posterity (likely on crack with its totals but I like seeing an increase in QPF 15 hours from the start of the storm).  3.0" for Arlington.  

 

That 6.5" liquid bullseye east of Richmond has to be wrong.It's too cold for those kinds of totals.

[caviman2201]

Eyeballing the 18z vs 00z GFS, the precip distribution appears to be almost identical in most areas... there's just a whole lot more of it... 

 

18z @ 66h

 

 

00z @ 60h

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

This is the most outrageous GFS run I have ever seen. And we are like 16 hours from start time. I mean over 4 feet for MBY. 

 

Yes, it would be one thing if it showed this 2 days ago, but we are very close to onset now.  I'm speechless after that run.  But it's also not totally on its own either.  NAM and RGEM were also amped up with the moisture.  Have no choice but to stay up for the Euro now.

[clskinsfan]

I mean. Normally the models are starting to throttle back the precip amounts as we approach game time. These runs tonight just kicked everything up to a level I have never seen before. Check out the radar down south though. I posted the radar at around 8 in the the other thread. The precip shield has at least doubled in size since then. Just a crazy development tonight.

[EHoffman]

The Euro should be coming out soon, right?

Initializes at 1245am ET

[yoda]

UBER RAKAGE on 00z GGEM at 36 hrs... 989mb SLP in near perfect position for us