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STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Does the low move west from 45 to 48?

2 low centers. One close to the coast and another one near the triple point. It's an oscillation of strength that gives the appearance of west motion. Basically, as the low near the coast moves east it becomes dominant.

This seems to be a tricky thing for models to resolve. The euro has had some jumps because of this. Must be a resolution thing. Gfs doesn't have the same definition.

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brettjrob

brettjrob

Posted
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While we are waiting on the gfs, someone please explain this Kuchera method I've been seeing.

 

In layman's terms: it uses a base ratio of 12:1, then deviates from that based on the maximum temperature found in the column below 500 mb (in other words, the layer between the surface and 500 mb). If the max column temp is around ~28 F, the ratio will be about 12:1. Below that temp, you can add 1 to the ratio for every 1°C (1.8°F). Above it, you can subtract 2 from the ratio for every 1°C.

 

Shameless plug: we calculate and plot Kuchera-based snowfall for the GFS, GGEM, NAM, 4km NAM, and HRRR on http://www.pivotalweather.com and also explicitly plot the column max temp below 500 mb.

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
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2 low centers. One close to the coast and another one near the triple point. It's an oscillation of strength that gives the appearance of west motion. Basically, as the low near the coast moves east it becomes dominant.

This seems to be a tricky thing for models to resolve. The euro has had some jumps because of this. Must be a resolution thing. Gfs doesn't have the same definition.

Well, I like the way that the RGEM is handling this.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

In layman's terms: it uses a base ratio of 12:1, then deviates from that based on the maximum temperature found in the column below 500 mb (in other words, the layer between the surface and 500 mb). If the max column temp is around ~28 F, the ratio will be about 12:1. Below that temp, you can add 1 to the ratio for every 1°C (1.8°F). Above it, you can subtract 2 from the ratio for every 1°C.

Shameless plug: we calculate and plot Kuchera-based snowfall for the GFS, GGEM, NAM, 4km NAM, and HRRR on http://www.pivotalweather.com

Very informative, thanks.

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