STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

[stormtracker]

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[DiehardFF]

Any special soundings implemented into the 18z runs cause of the storm?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Not sure that anyone should be surprised if we see precip amts/snow amts come down a bit.  I don't think the amounts that have been shown are very reasonable unless we get the storm to truly crawl out of here.

 

I would think anybody would be happy with a foot of snow.

[yoda]

Not sure that anyone should be surprised if we see precip amts/snow amts come down a bit.  I don't think the amounts that have been shown are very reasonable unless we get the storm to truly crawl out of here.

 

I would think anybody would be happy with a foot of snow.

Some of the models have shown just that though, esp the UKIE

[yoda]

WPC chance of snow >24" over next 48 hrs (12z FRI through 12z SUN)

 

[mappy]

Cobb for westminster

 

12z NAM: 2.57 qpf

12z GFS: 2.44 qpf

[Interstate]

Any special soundings implemented into the 18z runs cause of the storm?

 

I believe Pittsburgh is sending up more balloons.

[PhineasC]

NAM/GFS and GGEM/Euro set the high and low boundaries for the storm, respectively. Good sign that the middle ground is still like 18-20 inches and blizzard conditions.

[yoda]

15z SREFs are much wetter... tiny 2" contour shows up in NW VA at hr 54 and 57 (24 hr QPF)

[AmericanWxFreak]

Stet get precip pretty far north

[yoda]

09z SREF mean snow at KIAD was ~17.5"... ~15 inches at DCA

 

15z SREF plumes updating now

[87storms]

NAM/GFS and GGEM/Euro set the high and low boundaries for the storm, respectively. Good sign that the middle ground is still like 18-20 inches and blizzard conditions.

 

seems to me that the gfs has had the best handle on this storm (though haven't compared it's runs to actual).  pretty sure it caught the storm first, or at least "nam'd" us first, so it might not be a bad choice to hedge towards that model for this particular storm.  i agree, those are good models to have as your boundaries.

[gkoc32]

From now until 12z on the 22nd, Central Region, Most of Eastern, and Southern are performing speci flights....so you're 18 and 6z runs will have the Upper Air data ingested

Any special soundings implemented into the 18z runs cause of the storm?

 

[gkoc32]

edit to my last post, Eastern region will fly specis until 6z 23rd, then back to their normal operation of 12z/0z flights

[djr5001]

Any special soundings implemented into the 18z runs cause of the storm?

From yesterday:

*** SPECIAL SOUNDING REQUESTS ***CENTRAL REGION: ENTIRE REGION FROM 20/1800Z TO 22/0600ZSOUTHERN REGION: EXCLUDING TX AND FL...FROM TX EASTWARD BEGINNINGFROM 21/1800Z TO 22/1800Z.EASTERN REGION:  WFOs RNK, GSO, MHX, IAD, PIT, OKX, ALB, CHHBEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 23/0600Z.

[Kat]

09z SREF mean snow at KIAD was ~17.5"... ~15 inches at DCA

15z SREF plumes updating now

Mean at DCA now 17.23

[yoda]

Mean at DCA now 17.23

 

Mean at IAD is ~20" and at BWI it is ~16" and at EZF ~17.5"

 

OKV is ~30"  FDK is around 19" I believe... MRB around 25"

[PhineasC]

Mean at IAD is ~20" and at BWI it is ~16" and at EZF ~17.5"

OKV is ~30"

On mobile, were there any outliers to remove from the plumes? Yesterday there were several bad runs that had like zero precip. Removing them and the high outliers gave a better number.

[yoda]

On mobile, were there any outliers to remove from the plumes? Yesterday there were several bad runs that had like zero precip. Removing them and the high outliers gave a better number.

 

Even doing that, mean is still 16-17" for DCA removing some of the high end and low end outliers

[PhineasC]

Even doing that, mean is still 16-17" for DCA removing some of the high end and low end outliers

Thanks sounds like it must be tightly clustered.

[Bob Chill]

The 18 & 0z mesos should may give us some good insight irt the WAA part of the storm. They probably won't handle the deform stuff well until tomorrow night. I would trust them over the global ops to some extent when it comes to start time tomorrow and qpf totals through 12z Saturday. 

[yoda]

Thanks sounds like it must be tightly clustered.

 

[JonathanW]

Looking at the Euro and GFS runs from 12z yesterday), it appears that both GFS and European had the low in eastern Texas at this point. Current meso modelling indicates it's a little farther along (southern Louisiana) and about 2-3 mbar stronger than either predicted. However, it's about as strong for where it is as the two models predicted, once it got to LA.

In other words, the low's deepening and path is basically on track, but it's maybe 4-6 hours ahead of schedule (if meso is right).

EDIT: hmmm...maybe 3-4 hours ahead. GREarth's meso graphs seem to be a bit ahead of the SPC's.

Both models run yesterday seem to have come very close to nailing the strength and path of the low at this point. If one wanted to nitpick, it looks to me like the GFS was a little closer.

 

seems to me that the gfs has had the best handle on this storm (though haven't compared it's runs to actual).  pretty sure it caught the storm first, or at least "nam'd" us first, so it might not be a bad choice to hedge towards that model for this particular storm.  i agree, those are good models to have as your boundaries.

[yoda]

LWX going with Storm Warnings for the Tidal Potomac and Chesapeake Bay from 6pm FRI to 6pm SAT... just for reference, that means:

 

(55 to 70mph fwiw)

 

 

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OROCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKESHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULDPREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...ANDCONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDSAND WAVES SUBSIDE.

[Expat]

IWM shows  a wall of heavy snow not far behind onset of precip.

Edit (This is for 18z NAM)

[Buddy1987]

The 18z nam is a complete mauling and slaughtering of southern and central Virginia from hours 24-29. DC look out. Nam has a firehose en route.

[MacintoshPro]

Looks like a 3 pm start time for DC itself on the 18z NAM.

[Expat]

18z NAM shows "heaviest of the heavy snow" moving in around 04z Sat. (hour 34)

[Expat]

Insane prolonged 2-3" per hour rates on NAM

[MN Transplant]

2-3"/hr prior to 9z for many of us.  Really going to be rocking overnight tomorrow.