Mallow Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Hi there! I'm starting a forecast contest for people to guess the sea ice extent in the Arctic. The rules are as follows: - Give a number (in millions of sq km) that represents the sea ice extent for the last day of each month. - Forecasts begin for the last day of April 2010, and continue to the last day of March 2011. - All 12 forecast numbers are due by 11:59 PM EDT, April 20, 2010. - You may change your forecast at any time before the forecast is due, but if you do, you must do so in a new post. Points will be awarded as follows: - All values will be rounded to two decimal places (10.558 million sq km will be rounded to 10.56 million sq km), which can be though of as rounding to the nearest 10,000 sq km. - The official observation will be based on the number from IJIS. - A z-score will be calculated for each month as follows: abs(forecast - observation)/(standard deviation), where each variable is unique for a given month. - The z-score will be used to determine your official score. The number of points you get for a given month will be calculated as: 100*(area under a normal curve outside +/- your z-score for that month). This value will be rounded to the nearest whole number. - The sum of these official scores gives you your final official total. Higher numbers represent better scores. - Standard deviations are based on the results listed in this thread. This is also a good place to see reasonable values for any given month. - A "consensus" forecast will be available for reference, though will not be considered as part of the official ranking. - A "normal" forecast, based on values located in the thread linked above, will also be available for reference, but will again not be considered as part of the official ranking. This "forecast" is listed below for your reference. Last day of... Forecast (millions of sq km) Apr 12.82 May 11.31 Jun 9.29 Jul 6.90 Aug 5.49 Sep 5.82 Oct 8.92 Nov 10.59 Dec 12.43 Jan 13.37 Feb 13.92 Mar 13.75 Here's a reference table for standard deviations: Last day of... Std Dev (millions of sq km) Apr 0.28 May 0.25 Jun 0.36 Jul 0.34 Aug 0.35 Sep 0.55 Oct 0.39 Nov 0.34 Dec 0.24 Jan 0.28 Feb 0.25 Mar 0.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 14, 2010 Author Share Posted November 14, 2010 Results so far: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Results through December: Forecaster Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total MN transplant 78 25 1 100 67 56 49 13 10 399 skierinvermont 100 23 1 41 65 93 6 32 10 371 MallowTheCloud 48 15 13 88 59 66 4 20 6 319 ElTacoman 37 14 1 50 29 55 14 6 2 208 ORH_wxman 89 9 0 29 8 45 8 4 5 197 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I assume you saved all of the guesses? Brutal month. Not as bad as June, but not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 I assume you saved all of the guesses? Brutal month. Not as bad as June, but not good at all. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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