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Time for Predictions


LongBeachSurfFreak

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8" or less Island wide. N/Central Jersey 10-12. Don't really care about any other areas lol. There will be mixing for parts of south east Nassau and the south shore and twin forks on the island. And I don't think we see the flooding or evacuations some say will likely happen.

Not being a downer but a realist. Looking at other variables and observations. Sticking with it, for better or worse.

Your forecast is a catch 22. If we see lesser snow amounts on the island it will be a all snow event. Only way it mixes west of the twin forks is if this comes way north

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Riding the JMA i see?

I think we fall on the good side of the gradient, and historically, there's a band of enhanced totals right below the gradient that's poorly modeled. See, eg, the southern berks in 1996 or central jersey in 2/2010.

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If the system stalls it will pull warm air in allowing for the change over. Trying to figure out how low snow totals are a catch or meaning we have an all snow event. I've lived here long enough to know that with these systems nothing is set in stone. This has been a year of off kilter weather and it will continue. I didn't say I was right I made a prediction. I'd love a nice 12-15" storm but the reality is its probably not going to happen, at least for us.

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