HighStakes Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Pan is using the rpm at range to predict the euro? Okey dokey. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk He's coming on shortly so I guess he will explain himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Tony Pann has been downplaying this for days now ... and continues on Twitter. 17m ago @JohnPatrick5187 Snow ending Saturday AM? @TonyPannWBAL yep. Tony Pann is a very conservative met (and usually right). Though to be fair, he went a little too low in snowmaggeddon part 1. Is this tweet true btw? I know the snowfall maps aren't reliable but sleet is actually counted as snow on the maps? https://twitter.com/TonyPannWBAL/status/689463520404987904 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltimoreguy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Recent string of Tweets This will be a Friday Night - Saturday Night event...most of Friday should be ok. Could it be the kids don't even get a day off from school? 12z NAM/GFS still BIG hit for Baltimore. 12z RPM has snow ending for Baltimore Sat AM as upper low fills south. What will the 12z Euro say? 17m ago @JohnPatrick5187 Snow ending Saturday AM? @TonyPannWBAL yep. I have seen the RPM for many years now....and it IS good at picking up changes first. Jan 18Cold as it is right now, looks to me like the storm Fri-Sat will not be a pure snow event for the Baltimore Metro. Too soon for "How Much?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I genuinely cannot stand him so now am rooting extra hard for a complete snow obliteration. Just to spite him. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I am worried about the storm, but not so worried I will take the RPM at its word at this range. The next model I will give a crap about is the RGEM once it is in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Only this area would fight over where moving jackpots will be 36 hours before it starts hahaha yup i think we get the general idea now that it is probably going to snow a bit more than the average storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So, let me see......... there may be some mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Tony Pann has been downplaying this for days now ... and continues on Twitter. 17m ago @JohnPatrick5187 Snow ending Saturday AM? @TonyPannWBAL yep. Oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Tony Pann is a very conservative met (and usually right). Though to be fair, he went a little too low in snowmaggeddon part 1. Is this tweet true btw? I know the snowfall maps aren't reliable but sleet is actually counted as snow on the maps? https://twitter.com/TonyPannWBAL/status/689463520404987904 He is about look really silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Recent string of Tweets This will be a Friday Night - Saturday Night event...most of Friday should be ok. Could it be the kids don't even get a day off from school? 12z NAM/GFS still BIG hit for Baltimore. 12z RPM has snow ending for Baltimore Sat AM as upper low fills south. What will the 12z Euro say? 17m ago @JohnPatrick5187 Snow ending Saturday AM? @TonyPannWBAL yep. I have seen the RPM for many years now....and it IS good at picking up changes first. Jan 18 Cold as it is right now, looks to me like the storm Fri-Sat will not be a pure snow event for the Baltimore Metro. Too soon for "How Much?" I have no experience with that model, mainly because I have no idea where to find it, but I do know that it nailed March of 13. I just happened to be watching the Weather Channel the night before and they showed it. It nailed what happened in DC and it was a perfect match for what happened at my house. The similarity of the radar loop it presented to what actually happened was amazing. I have no idea what it is showing, just giving my one experience with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Tony Pann is a very conservative met (and usually right). Though to be fair, he went a little too low in snowmaggeddon part 1. Is this tweet true btw? I know the snowfall maps aren't reliable but sleet is actually counted as snow on the maps? https://twitter.com/TonyPannWBAL/status/689463520404987904 The WxBell maps used to count sleet as snow, but now I believe that has been fixed since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 I have no experience with that model, mainly because I have no idea where to find it, but I do know that it nailed March of 13. I just happened to be watching the Weather Channel the night before and they showed it. It nailed what happened in DC and it was a perfect match for what happened at my house. The similarity of the radar loop it presented to what actually happened was amazing. I have no idea what it is showing, just giving my one experience with it. Blind squirrels, nuts, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Well, it was a fun dream while it lasted - got to enjoy the blizzard watch for two whole hours before pann canceled the storm... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The WxBell maps used to count sleet as snow, but now I believe that has been fixed since. SV and TT are now more bullish than WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Blind squirrels, nuts, etc. I'm glad to hear you say it. You would know better than I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Even the worst case on the models for this storm doesn't have it ending Saturday AM. What a dumb tweet. Saturday AM could be 12:01. Even assuming he meant like 0900 on Saturday still is insane. We'll be under heavy snow at that time. Every model on Earth shows that, other than the RPM I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 There is no way the RPM has a handle on this type of storm, especially out of range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Well, it was a fun dream while it lasted - got to enjoy the blizzard watch for two whole hours before pann canceled the storm... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk its ok. He's just using the para hires RPM from the other day that no one else saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Final call: BWI: 12-15 DCA: 14-16 IAD: 14-16 Don't care about other cities. Someone maybe near CHO will hit 20-24. Storm will last a long time but much of the later stages will be light to moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 No reason to think the usual areas (SE of 95) will (edit) NOT see some sleet or even rain. Seems to happen in all the big wrapped up storms (I mixed in Feb 5-6 2010 and don't think that was modeled). Also no reason to think said mixing will keep this from being an epic event for nearly everyone in this forum. Looks like it may be windy, too early to talk about 6 ft drifts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Final call: BWI: 12-15 DCA: 14-16 IAD: 14-16 Don't care about other cities. Someone maybe near CHO will hit 20-24. Storm will last a long time but much of the later stages will be light to moderate snow. Stinky bait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Final call: BWI: 12-15 DCA: 14-16 IAD: 14-16 Don't care about other cities. Someone maybe near CHO will hit 20-24. Storm will last a long time but much of the later stages will be light to moderate snow. One thing I've found is it usually pays to forecast low for DCA. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Tony stopped the RPM future cast at 12 midnight friday. He didnt extend it into to Saturday so I have no idea what it showed. He then said he needs to see one more model run before going all in ( assuming he was referring to the Euro ). He feels the bullseye will be towards DC but Baltimore will get into the heavy snow accumulations. Seemed conservative but never mentioned he expects drastic changes in future model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Tony stopped the RPM future cast at 12 midnight friday. He didnt extend it into to Saturday so I have no idea what it showed. He then said he needs to see one more model run before going all in ( assuming he was referring to the Euro ). He feels the bullseye will be towards DC but Baltimore will get into the heavy snow accumulations. Seemed conservative but never mentioned he expects drastic changes in future model runs. I just did a quick read about the RPM and some that use it say it only goes out 51 hours. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 One thing I've found is it usually pays to forecast low for DCA. But we'll see. I am really just a weenie but I have lost some faith today for some reason. Maybe Euro will fix things but the precip maps since 00Z seem to be showing holes opening up around the bullseye area, which keeps moving around. Makes me think 12 inch reports will be way more common around the area than 20 inch reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Final call: BWI: 12-15 DCA: 14-16 IAD: 14-16 Don't care about other cities. Someone maybe near CHO will hit 20-24. Storm will last a long time but much of the later stages will be light to moderate snow. I'll take the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I am really just a weenie but I have lost some faith today for some reason. Maybe Euro will fix things but the precip maps since 00Z seem to be showing holes opening up around the bullseye area, which keeps moving around. Makes me think 12 inch reports will be way more common around the area than 20 inch reports. Congrats on riding a GFS/NAM combo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Congrats on riding a GFS/NAM combo! Maybe the Euro will ease my mind unless it decides to do something weird like it has been doing lately and dip way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Final call: BWI: 12-15 DCA: 14-16 IAD: 14-16 Don't care about other cities. Someone maybe near CHO will hit 20-24. Storm will last a long time but much of the later stages will be light to moderate snow. I can't believe you neglected to mention Westminster. I know how disappointed you'll be if we don't jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I just did a quick read about the RPM and some that use it say it only goes out 51 hours. lol Good point. I actually didn't think it went out that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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