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Pre-storm Banter Thread


WxUSAF

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Tony Pann has been downplaying this for days now ... and continues on Twitter.

 

17m ago

@JohnPatrick5187 Snow ending Saturday AM?

@TonyPannWBAL yep.

 

Tony Pann is a very conservative met (and usually right). Though to be fair, he went a little too low in snowmaggeddon part 1.

 

Is this tweet true btw? I know the snowfall maps aren't reliable but sleet is actually counted as snow on the maps?

 

https://twitter.com/TonyPannWBAL/status/689463520404987904

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Recent string of Tweets

 

This will be a Friday Night - Saturday Night event...most of Friday should be ok. Could it be the kids don't even get a day off from school?

12z NAM/GFS still BIG hit for Baltimore. 12z RPM has snow ending for Baltimore Sat AM as upper low fills south. What will the 12z Euro say?

 

17m ago

@JohnPatrick5187 Snow ending Saturday AM?

@TonyPannWBAL yep.

 

I have seen the RPM for many years now....and it IS good at picking up changes first.

 

Jan 18
Cold as it is right now, looks to me like the storm Fri-Sat will not be a pure snow event for the Baltimore Metro. Too soon for "How Much?"

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Recent string of Tweets

 

This will be a Friday Night - Saturday Night event...most of Friday should be ok. Could it be the kids don't even get a day off from school?

12z NAM/GFS still BIG hit for Baltimore. 12z RPM has snow ending for Baltimore Sat AM as upper low fills south. What will the 12z Euro say?

 

17m ago

@JohnPatrick5187 Snow ending Saturday AM?

@TonyPannWBAL yep.

 

I have seen the RPM for many years now....and it IS good at picking up changes first.

 

Jan 18

Cold as it is right now, looks to me like the storm Fri-Sat will not be a pure snow event for the Baltimore Metro. Too soon for "How Much?"

I have no experience with that model, mainly because I have no idea where to find it, but I do know that it nailed March of 13.  I just happened to be watching the Weather Channel the night before and they showed it.  It nailed what happened in DC and it was a perfect match for what happened at my house.  The similarity of the radar loop it presented to what actually happened was amazing.

 

I have no idea what it is showing, just giving my one experience with it.

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Tony Pann is a very conservative met (and usually right). Though to be fair, he went a little too low in snowmaggeddon part 1.

 

Is this tweet true btw? I know the snowfall maps aren't reliable but sleet is actually counted as snow on the maps?

 

https://twitter.com/TonyPannWBAL/status/689463520404987904

The WxBell maps used to count sleet as snow, but now I believe that has been fixed since.

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I have no experience with that model, mainly because I have no idea where to find it, but I do know that it nailed March of 13. I just happened to be watching the Weather Channel the night before and they showed it. It nailed what happened in DC and it was a perfect match for what happened at my house. The similarity of the radar loop it presented to what actually happened was amazing.

I have no idea what it is showing, just giving my one experience with it.

Blind squirrels, nuts, etc.

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Well, it was a fun dream while it lasted - got to enjoy the blizzard watch for two whole hours before pann canceled the storm...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

its ok.  He's just using the para hires RPM from the other day that no one else saw

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No reason to think the usual areas (SE of 95) will (edit) NOT see some sleet or even rain. Seems to happen in all the big wrapped up storms (I mixed in Feb 5-6 2010 and don't think that was modeled). Also no reason to think said mixing will keep this from being an epic event for nearly everyone in this forum.

Looks like it may be windy, too early to talk about 6 ft drifts?

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Tony stopped the RPM future cast at 12 midnight friday. He didnt extend it into to Saturday so I have no idea what it showed. He then said he needs to see one more model run before going all in ( assuming he was referring to the Euro ). He feels the bullseye will be towards DC but Baltimore will get into the heavy snow accumulations. Seemed conservative but never mentioned he expects drastic changes in future model runs.

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Tony stopped the RPM future cast at 12 midnight friday. He didnt extend it into to Saturday so I have no idea what it showed. He then said he needs to see one more model run before going all in ( assuming he was referring to the Euro ). He feels the bullseye will be towards DC but Baltimore will get into the heavy snow accumulations. Seemed conservative but never mentioned he expects drastic changes in future model runs.

 

I just did a quick read about the RPM and some that use it say it only goes out 51 hours.  lol

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One thing I've found is it usually pays to forecast low for DCA.  But we'll see.

I am really just a weenie but I have lost some faith today for some reason. Maybe Euro will fix things but the precip maps since 00Z seem to be showing holes opening up around the bullseye area, which keeps moving around. Makes me think 12 inch reports will be way more common around the area than 20 inch reports.

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I am really just a weenie but I have lost some faith today for some reason. Maybe Euro will fix things but the precip maps since 00Z seem to be showing holes opening up around the bullseye area, which keeps moving around. Makes me think 12 inch reports will be way more common around the area than 20 inch reports.

 

Congrats on riding a GFS/NAM combo!

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Final call:

 

BWI: 12-15

DCA: 14-16

IAD: 14-16

 

Don't care about other cities. Someone maybe near CHO will hit 20-24. Storm will last a long time but much of the later stages will be light to moderate snow.

I can't believe you neglected to mention Westminster. I know how disappointed you'll be if we don't jackpot.

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