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Pre-storm Banter Thread


WxUSAF

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Tony Pann gave an update this afternoon on facebook saying that he thinks this storm doesnt crack top 10 for Baltimore which would be 18". He replied to someone saying the GFS is bonkers because of high qpf but every model pretry much has BWI around 2.0" qpf. I think he has another hunch like when he thought yesterdays 12z Euro would show something drastically different.

He is gonna look smart if the storm under-performs it's lofty expectations.  Over 20" of snow requires everything to work out just right.  How often have we sat here in the mid atlantic area after a storm fails to live up to expectations for one unforeseen reason or another.  

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Final call:

BWI: 34"

IAD: 40"

DCA: will get 28" will report 22"

RIC: 18"

PHL: 24"

It's a monster and it's all being confined to the region south of central PA to n NJ to south shore CT-seMA, slow moving, sharp thermal gradients aloft. Short of a rotation and three day stall, this is the big kahuna.

Wow that is a really bold prediction.

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Final call:

BWI: 34"

IAD: 40"

DCA: will get 28" will report 22"

RIC: 18"

PHL: 24"

It's a monster and it's all being confined to the region south of central PA to n NJ to south shore CT-seMA, slow moving, sharp thermal gradients aloft. Short of a rotation and three day stall, this is the big kahuna.

I like this call. You nailed the Little Clipper That Could last year!

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Hail? Wtf dude, it's called sleet

 

Before attacking me, please read up about what I'm referring to. Hail or graupel can fall along with snow in extremely heavy convective scenarios. An example of this is in February 2013 in SW connecticut where areas reported more than 6" per hour rates along with thunder and hail.

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Hail? Wtf dude, it's called sleet

Sleet is caused by the melting of frozen precip due to a warm layer aloft into rain and refreezing it back into pellets.

 

Hail is formed when updrafts keep a ice pellet suspended in the air for long periods of time, allowing it to accumulate ice. It's a ssociated with summertime convection but you can get it in the winter if the convection is strong enough

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sleet is caused by the melting of frozen precip due to a warm layer aloft into rain and refreezing it back into pellets.

 

Hail is formed when updrafts keep a ice pellet suspended in the air for long periods of time, allowing it to accumulate ice.

Thank you. The hail and graupel in question were due to extremely intense convective precipitation over Connecticut along with snow rates of over 6" an hour.

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Sleet is caused by the melting of frozen precip due to a warm layer aloft into rain and refreezing it back into pellets.

 

Hail is formed when updrafts keep a ice pellet suspended in the air for long periods of time, allowing it to accumulate ice. It's a ssociated with summertime convection but you can get it in the winter if the convection is strong enough

I know all this. He is simply trolling in the threads

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Since we are in banter--and I'm at happy hour at the Columbia Alehouse--has anyone completed their beer shopping? Aside from how much IMBY, this is the second most important question yet! And if yes...what's your blizzard go to beer?

I'm going to open my Firestone Velvet Merkin late Friday night!

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Hail? Wtf dude, it's called sleet

Actually it was hail. There was an ultra powerful deformation axis over southern CT that had rapid vertical motion over the region. The CC from the radar was showing values around 0.85-0.92 signifying large and non-uniform Hydrometeor. When reviewing the storm afterwards, there had been overshooting tops to 25-30k and a reflectivity gradient of 45-50 dbz on a 1.9 degree tilt. That is a classic low top thunderstorm signature and hail sig for the setup. That band alone dropped 6"/hr rates and small hail stones due to the intense lift aloft. Parts of CT had 13" in 2.5 hrs. 40" fell in a few spots. I did a case study on it for my Radar Met class back in my junior year in college.

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He is gonna look smart if the storm under-performs it's lofty expectations.  Over 20" of snow requires everything to work out just right.  How often have we sat here in the mid atlantic area after a storm fails to live up to expectations for one unforeseen reason or another.  

 

No, not really I don't think.  More like just lucky if that were to occur.  Almost like he's trying for the "anti-hype" just to spite it.  While I don't care for the overkill on how the media want to report on this, they do it every storm.  It's just magnified because it's a very significant event, and because the models have been consistently showing it for several days now.  I'm not even paying attention to much of the news.

 

Most serious mets, the NWS, NCEP, etc., haven't "hyped" it but have been doing their best to make sure people are informed of the magnitude of this storm and that it's not just a run-of-the mill inconvenience.  The best mets in our forum here, even those who are generally more reticent and conservative, are going quite big on the event.

 

To be honest, I think it does a major disservice to the public to "pooh-pooh" this storm when in fact it very well could be a seriously life-threatening situation.  I don't think governors (MD, VA) calling for National Guard assistance, holding press conferences, or declaring states of emergencies is done lightly.

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