annapolismike Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Tony Pann gave an update this afternoon on facebook saying that he thinks this storm doesnt crack top 10 for Baltimore which would be 18". He replied to someone saying the GFS is bonkers because of high qpf but every model pretry much has BWI around 2.0" qpf. I think he has another hunch like when he thought yesterdays 12z Euro would show something drastically different. He is gonna look smart if the storm under-performs it's lofty expectations. Over 20" of snow requires everything to work out just right. How often have we sat here in the mid atlantic area after a storm fails to live up to expectations for one unforeseen reason or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Final call: BWI: 34" IAD: 40" DCA: will get 28" will report 22" RIC: 18" PHL: 24" It's a monster and it's all being confined to the region south of central PA to n NJ to south shore CT-seMA, slow moving, sharp thermal gradients aloft. Short of a rotation and three day stall, this is the big kahuna. Wow that is a really bold prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loshjott Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 MoCo liquor stores open until five tomorrow, closed on Sat. Time to end the monopoly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I would appreciate it if someone would please explain what a strong crosshair signature is. Thanks. It's when a brazilian waxing goes bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I would love to see hail with snow.. CT got it in their clown fish blizzard of 2013 along with unimaginable rates. Hail? Wtf dude, it's called sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Final call: BWI: 34" IAD: 40" DCA: will get 28" will report 22" RIC: 18" PHL: 24" It's a monster and it's all being confined to the region south of central PA to n NJ to south shore CT-seMA, slow moving, sharp thermal gradients aloft. Short of a rotation and three day stall, this is the big kahuna. I like this call. You nailed the Little Clipper That Could last year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hail? Wtf dude, it's called sleet Before attacking me, please read up about what I'm referring to. Hail or graupel can fall along with snow in extremely heavy convective scenarios. An example of this is in February 2013 in SW connecticut where areas reported more than 6" per hour rates along with thunder and hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hail? Wtf dude, it's called sleet Sleet is caused by the melting of frozen precip due to a warm layer aloft into rain and refreezing it back into pellets. Hail is formed when updrafts keep a ice pellet suspended in the air for long periods of time, allowing it to accumulate ice. It's a ssociated with summertime convection but you can get it in the winter if the convection is strong enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I was there. 6 inches in an hour. Graupel in southern CT. Greatest thing I've ever seen in my life. You've never seen 12" an hour in the tug hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 sleet is caused by the melting of frozen precip due to a warm layer aloft into rain and refreezing it back into pellets. Hail is formed when updrafts keep a ice pellet suspended in the air for long periods of time, allowing it to accumulate ice. Thank you. The hail and graupel in question were due to extremely intense convective precipitation over Connecticut along with snow rates of over 6" an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I have obtained cheez its. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I was there. 6 inches in an hour. Graupel in southern CT. Greatest thing I've ever seen in my life. I envy you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Caps game start time was moved to 5 p.m. on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sleet is caused by the melting of frozen precip due to a warm layer aloft into rain and refreezing it back into pellets. Hail is formed when updrafts keep a ice pellet suspended in the air for long periods of time, allowing it to accumulate ice. It's a ssociated with summertime convection but you can get it in the winter if the convection is strong enough I know all this. He is simply trolling in the threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Caps game start time was moved to 5 p.m. on Friday. Well this is good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Since we are in banter--and I'm at happy hour at the Columbia Alehouse--has anyone completed their beer shopping? Aside from how much IMBY, this is the second most important question yet! And if yes...what's your blizzard go to beer? I'm going to open my Firestone Velvet Merkin late Friday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's amazing how many pompous "experts" have shown up here out of the clear blue in the past few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I have obtained cheez its. Game on.Same here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Funny! http://www.dennismersereau.com/2016/01/blizzard-2016-frequently-asked.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I know all this. He is simply trolling in the threads How am I trolling? I was being sarcastic on the 6" per hour or bust, just pointing out the high dbz returns in the deep south. And then I said I would love to see hail with snow, like most weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I know all this. He is simply trolling in the threads Aren't we all A week of being in the jackpot zone has taken its toll on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Caps game start time was moved to 5 p.m. on Friday. Extremely sensible. Fans and the Ducks can get out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Reasonable forecast IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zgummy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Caps game start time was moved to 5 p.m. on Friday. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hail? Wtf dude, it's called sleet Actually it was hail. There was an ultra powerful deformation axis over southern CT that had rapid vertical motion over the region. The CC from the radar was showing values around 0.85-0.92 signifying large and non-uniform Hydrometeor. When reviewing the storm afterwards, there had been overshooting tops to 25-30k and a reflectivity gradient of 45-50 dbz on a 1.9 degree tilt. That is a classic low top thunderstorm signature and hail sig for the setup. That band alone dropped 6"/hr rates and small hail stones due to the intense lift aloft. Parts of CT had 13" in 2.5 hrs. 40" fell in a few spots. I did a case study on it for my Radar Met class back in my junior year in college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Caps game start time was moved to 5 p.m. on Friday. I have club tickets to that game. Idk what to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 He is gonna look smart if the storm under-performs it's lofty expectations. Over 20" of snow requires everything to work out just right. How often have we sat here in the mid atlantic area after a storm fails to live up to expectations for one unforeseen reason or another. No, not really I don't think. More like just lucky if that were to occur. Almost like he's trying for the "anti-hype" just to spite it. While I don't care for the overkill on how the media want to report on this, they do it every storm. It's just magnified because it's a very significant event, and because the models have been consistently showing it for several days now. I'm not even paying attention to much of the news. Most serious mets, the NWS, NCEP, etc., haven't "hyped" it but have been doing their best to make sure people are informed of the magnitude of this storm and that it's not just a run-of-the mill inconvenience. The best mets in our forum here, even those who are generally more reticent and conservative, are going quite big on the event. To be honest, I think it does a major disservice to the public to "pooh-pooh" this storm when in fact it very well could be a seriously life-threatening situation. I don't think governors (MD, VA) calling for National Guard assistance, holding press conferences, or declaring states of emergencies is done lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Reasonable forecast IMO 635889904453328233-120-Hand-Drawn-Snow-Totals-Storm-Total.png Yes. In line with what most everyone is thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm going to open my Firestone Velvet Merkin late Friday night! I'm gonna have a Firestone beer also. Stickee Monkee. Been in cellar for a year, a storm like this deserves to have great beer sacrifices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Through all of this I can't help but think about 2003 and the big bust. Everyone was positive it was going to stay over our area for a long time. Then what did it do? it shifted north at the very last minute! Does this storm bear any resemblance to the bust of 2003? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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