weathercoins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 OK Tony. I think WBAL literally thinks the RPM is the only model that exists sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImThat1Guy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 By almost all accounts, we are less than 24 hours from onset of precip in the district. Anyone know where I can find adult-size sleds at short notice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CWG mentioned possible 15:1 ratios on saturday. Turn that 3" of qpf into 45" of powder! Lol. But seriously I think that most areas will average about 12-14:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coldrain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Since ORF is left out in the cold on this one, I'm looking for recommendations for the best area to chase/snowcation for the weekend without getting buried alive and be able to drive back with a 4WD vehicle Sunday night. What locations do you guys think might be best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The stuff from the end of the storm could definitely be 15:1 since it'd be at the top of your snowpack, but i'd bet on some compaction further down. Those who clear their boards and measure every six inches would probably report higher totals than those who don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Long timers on here, like myself, are not stressing and hanging on every model run. Like 1993, 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2009-10, it's time to let this play out. Favored climo areas are going to get favored, and those that are not will not. A week of solid model runs will not be wrong. Relax and enjoy.... this is the fun part! The hard part is done! Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Long timers on here, like myself, are not stressing and hanging on every model run. Like 1993, 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2009-10, it's time to let this play out. Favored climo areas are going to get favored, and those that are not will not. A week of solid model runs will not be wrong. Relax and enjoy.... this is the fun part! The hard part is done! Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Last time we had a closed 500mb low track across the NC VA border all the precip amounts in the DC metro were too high from every model but the EURO was the closest. Just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think WBAL literally thinks the RPM is the only model that exists sometimes.I think they are contractually obligated to use it. Not sure of that but someone posted that on here once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think they are contractually obligated to use it. Not sure of that but someone posted that on here once. Jesus...I give up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Since ORF is left out in the cold on this one, I'm looking for recommendations for the best area to chase/snowcation for the weekend without getting buried alive and be able to drive back with a 4WD vehicle Sunday night. What locations do you guys think might be best? Probably somewhere in the Shenadoah Valley up into the WV corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Last time we had a closed 500mb low track across the NC VA border all the precip amounts in the DC metro were too high from every model but the EURO was the closest. Just saying Which storm? What analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I brought it up a few weeks ago. He hasn't been online since Halloween. I know he was battling illness. It's sad to think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 From the LWX discussion SNOWFALL RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO. THERE WILL BE A STRONG CROSSHAIR SIGNATURE WITH VERTICAL VELOCITY AND THE LAYER OF MAXIMUM DENTRITIC SNOW GROWTH BUT FORECAST SHOWS A LARGE LAYER OF RIMING UNDERNEATH THAT LAYER. So the riming cuts down on ratios? Never heard this mentioned an AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 LWX talk derails almost every storm disco thread we have. <Walt Disney>If you complain about a forecast, then your weenie wishes will come true.</Waly Disney> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Tony Pann gave an update this afternoon on facebook saying that he thinks this storm doesnt crack top 10 for Baltimore which would be 18". He replied to someone saying the GFS is bonkers because of high qpf but every model pretry much has BWI around 2.0" qpf. I think he has another hunch like when he thought yesterdays 12z Euro would show something drastically different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I know we have been pretty focused on where the heaviest banding and accumulations set up amongst other things, but beginning to wonder if the winds is what this storm is really going to be remembered for. True blizzard conditions here are almost unheard of except for short periods of time. It's one thing to be in the warm posting jubilation on amwx and another shivering in the cold and dark trapped without power because the Blizzard knocked out our utilities for who knows how long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Tony Pann gave an update this afternoon on facebook saying that he thinks this storm doesnt crack top 10 for Baltimore which would be 18". He replied to someone saying the GFS is bonkers because of high qpf but every model pretry much has BWI around 2.0" qpf. I think he has another hunch like when he thought yesterdays 12z Euro would show something drastically different. I've been pretty disappointed with him this storm. He hasn't had any "hunches" or insight that have actually come true. Usually he's one of the better ones, despite the RPM reliance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Which storm? What analog? Don't ask. Hopefully invalid cause this storm is a much wider closed low and moving northeast, not due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I've been pretty disappointed with him this storm. He hasn't had any "hunches" or insight that have actually come true. Usually he's one of the better ones, despite the RPM reliance. True, I usually like him also. However he seems to always root against big snows happening even though he is a snow lover so he will find ways to justify it. I know people like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm getting bored between model runs. I'm thinking about going back to Twitter and trolling that Motsco or whatever guy from Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm getting bored between model runs. I'm thinking about going back to Twitter and trolling that Motsco or whatever guy from Philly Do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Look what this "Mikethemanatee" wrote in the obstacles thread. Those 50 dbz returns in the deep south better go over us and drop 6" per hour rates with thundersnow and hail or else this thing is a bust. Mods, ban him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm getting bored between model runs. I'm thinking about going back to Twitter and trolling that Motsco or whatever guy from Philly Me too. What can we do for fun?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Final call: BWI: 34" IAD: 40" DCA: will get 28" will report 22" RIC: 18" PHL: 24" It's a monster and it's all being confined to the region south of central PA to n NJ to south shore CT-seMA, slow moving, sharp thermal gradients aloft. Short of a rotation and three day stall, this is the big kahuna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm getting bored between model runs. I'm thinking about going back to Twitter and trolling that Motsco or whatever guy from Philly Drink? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 From the LWX discussion SNOWFALL RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO. THERE WILL BE A STRONG CROSSHAIR SIGNATURE WITH VERTICAL VELOCITY AND THE LAYER OF MAXIMUM DENTRITIC SNOW GROWTH BUT FORECAST SHOWS A LARGE LAYER OF RIMING UNDERNEATH THAT LAYER. So the riming cuts down on ratios? Never heard this mentioned an AFD. I would appreciate it if someone would please explain what a strong crosshair signature is. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Look what this "Mikethemanatee" wrote in the obstacles thread. Those 50 dbz returns in the deep south better go over us and drop 6" per hour rates with thundersnow and hail or else this thing is a bust. Mods, ban him. I would love to see hail with snow.. CT got it in their clown fish blizzard of 2013 along with unimaginable rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I would appreciate it if someone would please explain what a strong crosshair signature is. Thanks. I'm guessing that just means vertical velocity intersects with the dendritic growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z NAVGEM was nice looking in its run fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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