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Pre-storm Banter Thread


WxUSAF

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i think the question at this point is whether this ends up a mecs or a hecs, depending on your location.  i can understand why someone on the fringe would feel a little deflated when within 36 hours of gametime the best model in the world drops your qpf by 0.5".  gonna be interesting to see the final tallies on this one.

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I remember a couple of years ago...I think it was Feb. 2013 and I was visiting friends up in philly. And we were supposed to get 2 feet of snow and we got like an inch.... Is there anyway that something like that happens here? I mean it seems like it is a sure thing... Whose to say it doesn't change at the last minute! I hope not!!!!

 

in my opinion, this seems to be shaping up to be a dynamic, but fairly tightly wrapped system, though i could be wrong.  if i'm right, then i could see where there could be big totals for some and then a dramatic dropoff for others.  could be a close call on the fringes, or at least that's what the models are indicating.

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Anyone slightly NW of DC willing to host me for the weekend? Would REALLY appreciate it. I live for this stuff, and I am a bit tight financially right now so it is onyl thing holding me back....I will have no problem throwing you some cash for letting me stay, but if I get a motel it would probably cost me $200 for the weekend. PM me or reply here ASAP. I am looking to leave tomorrow AM. 

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you'd only be deflated if you had unrealistic expectations to begin with. and then you'd deserve to feel that way because you brought it entirely upon yourself.

 

what would be realistic, though?  when some people are calling for mixing even though a model is showing it to be 25 miles away, some people on here call them idiots, even though in most storms, that's usually the outcome (i.e, a period of sleet).  it's a gray area between what you should expect based on what the models are showing.

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you'd only be deflated if you had unrealistic expectations to begin with. and then you'd deserve to feel that way because you brought it entirely upon yourself.

I don't think 18" up in Northern Baltimore/Carroll County is unrealistic. That's what every model has been showing for days. Today, the GGEM and EURO both cut the total by at least half an inch of liquid. That's a lot so close to the onset, and I think a little "worrying" is justified.

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I don't think 18" up in Northern Baltimore/Carroll County is unrealistic. That's what every model has been showing for days. Today, the GGEM and EURO both cut the total by at least half an inch of liquid. That's a lot so close to the onset, and I think a little "worrying" is justified.

 

agreed.  there's been some signals in the major models of this storm moving north then making a beeline east.  for those north i would have felt better in their shoes if euro didn't change at all.

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For those betting-inclined folks out there, what's your view on this over-under play: DCA report a measurement of >20.0" for this storm. 

 

To be clear, I'm not talking about IMBY readings from DC or Alexandria.  I'm talking about the whacked out, cut-30%-off-the-top measuring system used for DC's stupid official measurement.

 

I'm leaning under.

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I don't think 18" up in Northern Baltimore/Carroll County is unrealistic. That's what every model has been showing for days. Today, the GGEM and EURO both cut the total by at least half an inch of liquid. That's a lot so close to the onset, and I think a little "worrying" is justified.

 

Do you just expect every storm to hit your spot the best?

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Me and my son are going to set up his gopro for timelapse. I'm going to move my deck table against the house and set up the camera by the window. I won't be able to get the overnight stuff but the nuking should look pretty cool. I'm going to clear half the table at dawn. If it works I'll stick it on youtube and link it up here. 

How do you make go pro time lapse?  I may want to try that.  

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