WeSuck Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Someone go to Twitter and comment on it. Actually, nevermind. not even worth our time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That channel 7 map makes complete sense if you don't have access to the NAM, GFS, Euro, Rgem, GGEM, and JMA. Someone should email them some links to ncep or tidbits or something. Some lightweight models if I ever saw any! Here's hoping they bust waaaaaay low on that (the channel 7 map, that is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Honestly...the issue is that there is a fixation with the public and weather models ever since Sandy. It's like now everyone wants to hear about the models, MODELS, MODELS. It used to just be mentioned in passing on the news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Bought some dark chocolate chips and brown sugar today. Going to make some peanut butter chocolate chip bars. Will go well with hot chocolate. Sounds yummy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Husband changed his Saturday morning flight into national to tomorrow morning. Then hears that the government is closing early. So it will still take him hours to get home but I suppose he at least has a chance to land, unlike Saturday at 10am. He is cursing the world though. Which government is closing early? Has that been announced? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Those models you listed are horrible. They are like the 18th century of modeling. In house MODEL is where it's at, Bob. Get with the program. Developed by monks while drinking casks of home-brewed ale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GirlForAllSeasons Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm with Matt, I'd use climo. Mote did a study fo snow across Nebraska and foudn that the really high ratios usually do not occur with the really big ones because the snow on top of the earlier snow compacts it. You might get fluff on the top but compress teh bottom so it's less tha 10-1. Do you think it is possible that we are gonna have widespread power outages? Do you think that they will need to haul snow as opposed to plow it. I am too young but my dad tells me that in 2003 a lot of lost power and a lot of people couldnt get out of their homes at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Bought some dark chocolate chips and brown sugar today. Going to make some peanut butter chocolate chip bars. Will go well with hot chocolate. You're probably going to end up mixing, then. What sort of ratios are you thinking for the chocolate chips:batter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Someone go to Twitter and comment on it. Actually, nevermind. not even worth our time i did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I actually remember for the Feb 14 MECS, that same "in-house model" had something like 3" for DC due to- you guessed it- changing to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Don't get these tv Mets and the rpm and in-house models. Not sure showing 7-11" would change anybody's response at this point, but it doesn't help the "weather people are always wrong" narrative among the idiot hoi polloi. Re: Ian's tweet showing the gfs consistency with this storm. Make sure you tell DT. Are TV Mets paid to hug the RPM or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I actually remember for the Feb 14 MECS, that same "in-house model" had something like 3" for DC due to- you guessed it- changing to rain. Well, that did change to drizzle for awhile...but after a foot fell where I'm at and I think over 7" at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Makes a lot of sense. But why would your QPF number be lower than a blended total of the models you trust the most?. Mixing potential, caution, climo, wet bias, SD from normal I might up totals a bit in my next forecast...I went 16-22" for DC yesterday afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Which government is closing early? Has that been announced? DC gov't, not Fed gov't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kas80 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Federal government closing early? I don't see that on the OPM site. D'oh. He got the call that it was and told me. I didn't think to verify before repeating. He will be happy to hear that at least for now, that info is incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I actually remember for the Feb 14 MECS, that same "in-house model" had something like 3" for DC due to- you guessed it- changing to rain. Maybe it's based on the CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Mixing potential, caution, climo, wet bias, SD from normal I might up totals a bit in my next forecast...I went 16-22" for DC yesterday afternoon... Wooooo - looking forward to seeing your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Mixing potential, caution, climo, wet bias, SD from normal I might up totals a bit in my next forecast...I went 16-22" for DC yesterday afternoon... Seems a general 20" might now be the baseline with most models spitting out similar #s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 i wont be surprised to see a 3ft measurement from someone on this forum. We will do our best to get one of those on Aaron mtn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Mixing potential, caution, climo, wet bias, SD from normal I might up totals a bit in my next forecast...I went 16-22" for DC yesterday afternoon... That's a pretty reasonable amount at this point in time. Pretty similar to what LWX is going for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Maybe it's based on the CRAS Answers all of my questions then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GirlForAllSeasons Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 My coworker keeps telling me that it looks like the models are pushing the start time out more and more and that it seems like it is gonna end earlier than expected.. is that true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I usually don't watch local news, but who is this hottie doing the weather on channel 9? Topper must be having fun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 read this for fun... http://www.marketwatch.com/story/airlines-warn-of-delays-as-east-coast-braces-for-winter-storm-jonas-2016-01-21?dist=lcountdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 My coworker keeps telling me that it looks like the models are pushing the start time out more and more and that it seems like it is gonna end earlier than expected.. is that true? no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loshjott Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 D'oh. He got the call that it was and told me. I didn't think to verify before repeating. He will be happy to hear that at least for now, that info is incorrect. There may well be an early closure announcement by tomorrow AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How cool would it be if every model busted and there was no snow............at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Doug Kammerer @dougkammerer 37m37 minutes ago Another run of the models in and our thinking is still the same. It is going to be a top 5 storm at least! Stay with us. See u on #NBC4DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 As fast as the snow that fell last night has been melting, I doubt there will be any driving problems Saturday or Sunday. Plus, we'll have another 2-3 days toward the summer solstice worth of increased sunlight. And I've reached that conclusion without figuring in additional evaporation of the snow from the 30-40mph winds. Roads should be fine on Monday. Sorry teachers and kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Doug Kammerer @dougkammerer 37m37 minutes ago Another run of the models in and our thinking is still the same. It is going to be a top 5 storm at least! Stay with us. See u on #NBC4DC Complete opposite from Channel 7. How can two stations in the same market be so diametrically opposed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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