WeSuck Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 In the meantime, our baby is taking it's first steps http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm with Matt, I'd use climo. Mote did a study fo snow across Nebraska and foudn that the really high ratios usually do not occur with the really big ones because the snow on top of the earlier snow compacts it. You might get fluff on the top but compress teh bottom so it's less tha 10-1. Got it. Thank you for the explanation Wes. Good luck i hope you get at least 30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 lol Jacqui Jeras @ABC7Jacqui 7m7 minutes ago #StormWatch7 in house computer MODEL brings numbers down a bit along I-95 due to potential sleet/rain mix. Ok now that is just damn dumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 LULZ. Sorry it is 31". I was 2" off, so please have someone ream me out again like they are my mother when they are 10 years younger than me. The internet gives a lot of people perceived power that they don't have in real life. if you are getting that butthurt over me asking you to stop over hyping this storm, then perhaps you should look at yourself instead of others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 lol Jacqui Jeras @ABC7Jacqui 7m7 minutes ago #StormWatch7 in house computer MODEL brings numbers down a bit along I-95 due to potential sleet/rain mix. What is that by 10 AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ok now that is just damn dumb At first I thought that was through Saturday morning, then I saw the 9AM Sunday stamp on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 lol Jacqui Jeras @ABC7Jacqui 7m7 minutes ago #StormWatch7 in house computer MODEL brings numbers down a bit along I-95 due to potential sleet/rain mix. That has to be the RPM. If that unfolds it will be like WW3 in here. I would bet my left nut and my first born that it doesn't go down like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 LULZ. Sorry it is 31". I was 2" off, so please have someone ream me out again like they are my mother when they are 10 years younger than me. The internet gives a lot of people perceived power that they don't have in real life. The only thing is, there is more to forecasting than plugging a number from one model run into an algorithm. You have to take into account model biases/consistency, the array of model solutions, climo, etc. Ultimately, if I think there will be no mixing (not 100% for me), I will use 11:1 for this storm, but my QPF number will de derived from a number of factors. For my 1st guess yesterday afternoon I used a QPF number of 1.7" which was lower than model guidance. When I make a another guess later, my QPF number will probably be less than most guidance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What is that by 10 AM? Looks like their call on the storm total, since it says through 9AM Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 lol Jacqui Jeras @ABC7Jacqui 7m7 minutes ago #StormWatch7 in house computer MODEL brings numbers down a bit along I-95 due to potential sleet/rain mix. Just sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 if you are getting that butthurt over me asking you to stop over hyping this storm, then perhaps you should look at yourself instead of others. It's not butthurt, i don't appreciate you talking to me like you are my mother. Maybe you don't realize this, but you come off like that whenever you don't like what someone posts. You seem like a nice person you just have to chill a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like their call on the storm total, since it says through 9AM Sunday. Sarcasm doesn't translate well online Where are they getting those numbers from, has there been ANY indication that the totals would be this low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 lol Jacqui Jeras @ABC7Jacqui 7m7 minutes ago #StormWatch7 in house computer MODEL brings numbers down a bit along I-95 due to potential sleet/rain mix. That is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That has to be the RPM. If that unfolds it will be like WW3 in here. I would bet my left nut and my first born that it doesn't go down like that. Careful, Mappy already has naming rights from a bet like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The only thing is, there is more to forecasting than plugging a number from one model run into an algorithm. You have to take into account model biases/consistency, the array of model solutions, climo, etc. Ultimately, if I think there will be no mixing (not 100% for me), I will use 11:1 for this storm, but my QPF number will de derived from a number of factors. For my 1st guess yesterday afternoon I used a QPF number of 1.7" which was lower than model guidance. When I make a another guess later, my QPF number will probably be less than most guidance.. Makes a lot of sense. But why would your QPF number be lower than a blended total of the models you trust the most?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's not butthurt, i don't appreciate you talking to me like you are my mother. Maybe you don't realize this, but you come off like that whenever you don't like what someone posts. You seem like a nice person you just have to chill a little. I actually thought i was pretty reasonable with my posts towards you as history has shown i have no problem being a b**ch if need be. however, if they came off as i was scolding you, then my apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That is insane. The funny thing is, her previous tweet shows the 12z GFS and explicitly says "this is a model, not a forecast". Doesn't do it on this tweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That is insane. I like how she CAPITALIZED a random word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loshjott Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Husband changed his Saturday morning flight into national to tomorrow morning. Then hears that the government is closing early. So it will still take him hours to get home but I suppose he at least has a chance to land, unlike Saturday at 10am. He is cursing the world though. Federal government closing early? I don't see that on the OPM site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Me and my son are going to set up his gopro for timelapse. I'm going to move my deck table against the house and set up the camera by the window. I won't be able to get the overnight stuff but the nuking should look pretty cool. I'm going to clear half the table at dawn. If it works I'll stick it on youtube and link it up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sarcasm doesn't translate well online Where are they getting those numbers from, has there been ANY indication that the totals would be this low? LOL, was wondering if you were being sarcastic or were actually thinking it was by 10AM Saturday...to be honest, my first thought was that is the total through Friday night! All model guidance is giving us that much or more by then. I don't know anything about their in house model or what it uses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I actually thought i was pretty reasonable with my posts towards you as history has shown i have no problem being a b**ch if need be. however, if they came off as i was scolding you, then my apologies. No problem i appreciate it. In the future i will post a disclaimer that it is coming from a source that does not use 10:1 since i do not have WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I like how she CAPITALIZED a random word Why even post something like that? That is a joke. Makes her look like an idiot when it fails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 lol Jacqui Jeras @ABC7Jacqui 7m7 minutes ago #StormWatch7 in house computer MODEL brings numbers down a bit along I-95 due to potential sleet/rain mix. I will say that since I discovered weather forums, I stopped watching the new for totals. lol With all the technology and information on the internet, it is interesting how so many mets can be so scattered in forecasts. I think in terms of severe weather, more cooperation should be had. How about one consensus map that all mets use for the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Why even post something like that? That is a joke. Makes her look like an idiot when it fails Not just that, this is somewhat dangerous. This is a storm to not be taken lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Bought some dark chocolate chips and brown sugar today. Going to make some peanut butter chocolate chip bars. Will go well with hot chocolate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That channel 7 map makes complete sense if you don't have access to the NAM, GFS, Euro, Rgem, GGEM, and JMA. Someone should email them some links to ncep or tidbits or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I prefer SnowMalley - since this storm appears to be a disaster for the entire state of Maryland. HA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Don't get these tv Mets and the rpm and in-house models. Not sure showing 7-11" would change anybody's response at this point, but it doesn't help the "weather people are always wrong" narrative among the idiot hoi polloi. Re: Ian's tweet showing the gfs consistency with this storm. Make sure you tell DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That channel 7 map makes complete sense if you don't have access to the NAM, GFS, Euro, Rgem, GGEM, and JMA. Someone should email them some links to ncep or tidbits or something. Those models you listed are horrible. They are like the 18th century of modeling. In house MODEL is where it's at, Bob. Get with the program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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