clueless Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 No way! 12z today should be the victory lap of model runs and that's the sweetest one. Not going to miss a model run. What a ride though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 lol, I'm sitting in a possible bullseye for this storm. I'm not worried about mixing. Such bitterness from you. Get your OCD treated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Would assume everything would be shut down tomorrow in Baltimore unless the storm is delayed enough where businesses and schools want to play Russian roulette with early dismissals due to a later in the afternoon storm arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 LLS always look fwd to your GIFs. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Would assume everything would be shut down tomorrow in Baltimore unless the storm is delayed enough where businesses and schools want to play Russian roulette with early dismissals due to a later in the afternoon storm arrival. I doubt schools will close. My guess is early dismissals given the current time line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm worried about mixing Damn GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Would assume everything would be shut down tomorrow in Baltimore unless the storm is delayed enough where businesses and schools want to play Russian roulette with early dismissals due to a later in the afternoon storm arrival. Anne Arundel schools have been on a 2-hour early dismissal all week anyway. They'll probably cancel school even though the road-impacting snows probably won't be a factor until after school anyway. But that's how they roll around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 DC ABC 7 now talking about "slightly lower totals in DC" because rain will mix in Saturday morning. Showed some model that shows DC getting *only* 13 inches. First I saw of anyone lowering expected totals from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think schools should really either close or Early dismiss tomorrow, if by some chance this thing starts early and/or buses get stuck in it its going to be a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 They just didn't treat anything in this state. My drive home from DC to Calvert was just as bad. I don't know if they didn't pay attention to nws advisories or were just too caught up in preparing for the big storm. Lived in NYC as well for a time. They actually do a great job here treating roads. Last night isn't because of ability, it's because of incompetence. The road crews didn't take the winter weather advisory seriously. They didn't salt roads and temps were so cold. The one inch that fell was much worse than several inches because of incompetence by the road crews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Real, I can't find a model showing that, and I'm sure the NWS wouldn't have DC in the bullseye if they weren't sure. TV stations spouting one model with no support as truth will get them screwed over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltimoreguy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Would assume everything would be shut down tomorrow in Baltimore unless the storm is delayed enough where businesses and schools want to play Russian roulette with early dismissals due to a later in the afternoon storm arrival. If it seems clear that snow won't start until 5 p.m. or later, why would Baltimore close schools? With all the missed days looming on the horizon, schools might want to get as many days in as possible on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Thanks! Technical is fine. Better to be challenged a bit than be so simplified as to be unclear.A nice way to visualize it is to think about the progression at different levels. Big storms have different low pressure centers at different levels. Think surface, 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb. The most rapid intensification correlating with the height of the storm is the period when all low pressure centers are lining up on top of each other. Once they do it's referred to as vertically stacked. At this point the storm is fully matured and the good stuff is over and weakening begins. Capturing is the final piece of the process when the closed upper level low at 500mb becomes one with low pressure underneath it. During the capture momentum of the surface and mid level lows typically stalls. Being in the right spot during the process is pretty amazing and we are going to be in the right spot this time. The majority of our storms don't go through this process overhead. Many are disjointed and end up being 2 part storms. Think Jan 2011 and Feb 14. The upper level low lagged way behind the initial warm air advection precip. We are about to experience a very special and relatively rare evolution for our latitude. Fasten your seat belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Amazing they chose to not pre-treat the roads in a major metro, esp DC. They did all the main roads in Talbot and Caroline counties over here late yesterday afternoon. Side roads were very slick, main roads were perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think schools should really either close or Early dismiss tomorrow, if by some chance this thing starts early and/or buses get stuck in it its going to be a disaster All schools will be closed. The University of Maryland announced yesterday it will be closed tomorrow. Bet before 8 p.m., every school in Baltimore-Washington region will have announced they are closed tomorrow. Most are now closed today around DC, and cant imagine they will risk it tomorrow. Early dismals generally don't work well around here cause then everyone leaves work/school around same time, creating even more traffic gridlock. Throw in a few untimely accidents on major interstates, a repeat of last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Can anyone comment on the winds with this storm compared to the Blizzard of 66 for the DC area. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Real, I can't find a model showing that, and I'm sure the NWS wouldn't have DC in the bullseye if they weren't sure. TV stations spouting one model with no support as truth will get them screwed over Michigan weather pretty boring today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 thanks for weighing in. the school systems here have so little experience with snow that they're bound to be confused right now. and yet, they're sure to piss off half the parents with either any decision. Lose-lose situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ray is great. I had dinner with him a couple weeks ago. Sharp guy.Glad to hear that he is well. Enjoy the blizzard, it's going to be a few glorious days here coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 so who's hosting the forum blizzard partayyyy Lol, best gif of all time. Great stuff sadness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think some local TV stations use some in-house or rather obscure models and go with those over the globals - probably what the DC station did - I know it is what Channel 11 in Balt does. RPM showing mixing this AM per Channel 11 - so take those with a grain of salt. I would figure anyone on here knows how to get to a model and do their own interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 All schools will be closed. The University of Maryland announced yesterday it will be closed tomorrow. Bet before 8 p.m., every school in Baltimore-Washington region will have announced they are closed tomorrow. Most are now closed today around DC, and cant imagine they will risk it tomorrow. Early dismals generally don't work well around here cause then everyone leaves work/school around same time, creating even more traffic gridlock. Throw in a few untimely accidents on major interstates, a repeat of last night... Yeah, I think they really don't have much of a choice. If the storm started a little early and people got stranded like last night instead of 12 hours it would be for 24-48+ hours. Travel will literally become impossible late Friday night. They can't risk it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Amazing they chose to not pre-treat the roads in a major metro, esp DC. They did all the main roads in Talbot and Caroline counties over here late yesterday afternoon. Side roads were very slick, main roads were perfect. Bowser was on FOX5 news last night and justified it by saying they started pretreating at 4 PM (like thats going to help) and that we got more snow than predicted (which is wrong for DC and the forecast wasn't far off over here). Seems like Virginia and Maryland run on the same level of incompetence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think some local TV stations use some in-house or rather obscure models and go with those over the globals - probably what the DC station did - I know it is what Channel 11 in Balt does. RPM showing mixing this AM per Channel 11 - so take those with a grain of salt. I would figure anyone on here knows how to get to a model and do their own interpretation.Ava Marie just said possible mixing for Baltimore with rain and sleet. RPM showed a huge dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ava Marie just said possible mixing for Baltimore with rain and sleet. RPM showed a huge dry slot. Why do they use the RPM beyond it's useful range? Don't all mets know that it's not reliable beyond like 10 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ava Marie just said possible mixing for Baltimore with rain and sleet. RPM showed a huge dry slot. It's weird to me how much the locals ride with those products as against the globals and LWX - but it's what they do. Occasionally they score a coup (like how the RPM lucked into the March 2013 bust) but far more often they end up back-tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If it seems clear that snow won't start until 5 p.m. or later, why would Baltimore close schools? With all the missed days looming on the horizon, schools might want to get as many days in as possible on the front end.With storms like this and varying forecasts from various outlets it will never be clear to the general public as to the precise start time of the storm. An afternoon start time of a well advertised blizzard should be enough to keep people off the roads. It will be interesting. Regardless, if things are open downtown in general I will leave at noon to beat any insanity that may loom in the roads. Roads are nuts on a good day around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ava Marie just said possible mixing for Baltimore with rain and sleet. RPM showed a huge dry slot. PANIC!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 A nice way to visualize it is to think about the progression at different levels. Big storms have different low pressure centers at different levels. Think surface, 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb. The most rapid intensification correlating with the height of the storm is the period when all low pressure centers are lining up on top of each other. Once they do it's referred to as vertically stacked. At this point the storm is fully matured and the good stuff is over and weakening begins. Capturing is the final piece of the process when the closed upper level low at 500mb becomes one with low pressure underneath it. During the capture momentum of the surface and mid level lows typically stalls. Being in the right spot during the process is pretty amazing and we are going to be in the right spot this time. The majority of our storms don't go through this process overhead. Many are disjointed and end up being 2 part storms. Think Jan 2011 and Feb 14. The upper level low lagged way behind the initial warm air advection precip. We are about to experience a very special and relatively rare evolution for our latitude. Fasten your seat belt. This is a great explanation, Bob. As always, you break down the technical in a very easy-to-understand way. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I know you all have waited so long for this and I was waiting until last night's runs confirmed things. Here is my first, twelfth, second, last, to be updated call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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