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Pre-storm Banter Thread


WxUSAF

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Would assume everything would be shut down tomorrow in Baltimore unless the storm is delayed enough where businesses and schools want to play Russian roulette with early dismissals due to a later in the afternoon storm arrival.

I doubt schools will close.  My guess is early dismissals given the current time line. 

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Would assume everything would be shut down tomorrow in Baltimore unless the storm is delayed enough where businesses and schools want to play Russian roulette with early dismissals due to a later in the afternoon storm arrival.

 

Anne Arundel schools have been on a 2-hour early dismissal all week anyway.  They'll probably cancel school even though the road-impacting snows probably won't be a factor until after school anyway.  But that's how they roll around here.

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They just didn't treat anything in this state. My drive home from DC to Calvert was just as bad. I don't know if they didn't pay attention to nws advisories or were just too caught up in preparing for the big storm.

Lived in NYC as well for a time. They actually do a great job here treating roads. Last night isn't because of ability, it's because of incompetence. The road crews didn't take the winter weather advisory seriously. They didn't salt roads and temps were so cold. The one inch that fell was much worse than several inches because of incompetence by the road crews.

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Would assume everything would be shut down tomorrow in Baltimore unless the storm is delayed enough where businesses and schools want to play Russian roulette with early dismissals due to a later in the afternoon storm arrival.

 

If it seems clear that snow won't start until 5 p.m. or later, why would Baltimore close schools? With all the missed days looming on the horizon, schools might want to get as many days in as possible on the front end.

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Thanks! Technical is fine. Better to be challenged a bit than be so simplified as to be unclear.

A nice way to visualize it is to think about the progression at different levels. Big storms have different low pressure centers at different levels. Think surface, 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb.

The most rapid intensification correlating with the height of the storm is the period when all low pressure centers are lining up on top of each other. Once they do it's referred to as vertically stacked. At this point the storm is fully matured and the good stuff is over and weakening begins.

Capturing is the final piece of the process when the closed upper level low at 500mb becomes one with low pressure underneath it. During the capture momentum of the surface and mid level lows typically stalls. Being in the right spot during the process is pretty amazing and we are going to be in the right spot this time.

The majority of our storms don't go through this process overhead. Many are disjointed and end up being 2 part storms. Think Jan 2011 and Feb 14. The upper level low lagged way behind the initial warm air advection precip.

We are about to experience a very special and relatively rare evolution for our latitude. Fasten your seat belt.

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I think schools should really either close or Early dismiss tomorrow, if by some chance this thing starts early and/or buses get stuck in it its going to be a disaster

 

All schools will be closed. The University of Maryland announced yesterday it will be closed tomorrow.  Bet before 8 p.m., every school in Baltimore-Washington region will have announced they are closed tomorrow. Most are now closed today around DC, and cant imagine they will risk it tomorrow.

 

Early dismals generally don't work well around here cause then everyone leaves work/school around same time, creating even more traffic gridlock. Throw in a few untimely accidents on major interstates, a repeat of last night...

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Real, I can't find a model showing that, and I'm sure the NWS wouldn't have DC in the bullseye if they weren't sure. TV stations spouting one model with no support as truth will get them screwed over

 

Michigan weather pretty boring today? 

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I think some local TV stations use some in-house or rather obscure models and go with those over the globals - probably what the DC station did - I know it is what Channel 11 in Balt does. RPM showing mixing this AM per Channel 11 - so take those with a grain of salt. I would figure anyone on here knows how to get to a model and do their own interpretation.

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All schools will be closed. The University of Maryland announced yesterday it will be closed tomorrow.  Bet before 8 p.m., every school in Baltimore-Washington region will have announced they are closed tomorrow. Most are now closed today around DC, and cant imagine they will risk it tomorrow.

 

Early dismals generally don't work well around here cause then everyone leaves work/school around same time, creating even more traffic gridlock. Throw in a few untimely accidents on major interstates, a repeat of last night...

 

Yeah, I think they really don't have much of a choice.  If the storm started a little early and people got stranded like last night instead of 12 hours it would be for 24-48+ hours.  Travel will literally become impossible late Friday night.  They can't risk it.

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Amazing they chose to not pre-treat the roads in a major metro, esp DC. They did all the main roads in Talbot and Caroline counties over here late yesterday afternoon. Side roads were very slick, main roads were perfect.

 

Bowser was on FOX5 news last night and justified it by saying they started pretreating at 4 PM (like thats going to help) and that we got more snow than predicted (which is wrong for DC and the forecast wasn't far off over here).

 

Seems like Virginia and Maryland run on the same level of incompetence.

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I think some local TV stations use some in-house or rather obscure models and go with those over the globals - probably what the DC station did - I know it is what Channel 11 in Balt does. RPM showing mixing this AM per Channel 11 - so take those with a grain of salt. I would figure anyone on here knows how to get to a model and do their own interpretation.

Ava Marie just said possible mixing for Baltimore with rain and sleet. RPM showed a huge dry slot.
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Ava Marie just said possible mixing for Baltimore with rain and sleet. RPM showed a huge dry slot.

 

It's weird to me how much the locals ride with those products as against the globals and LWX - but it's what they do. Occasionally they score a coup (like how the RPM lucked into the March 2013 bust) but far more often they end up back-tracking.

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If it seems clear that snow won't start until 5 p.m. or later, why would Baltimore close schools? With all the missed days looming on the horizon, schools might want to get as many days in as possible on the front end.

With storms like this and varying forecasts from various outlets it will never be clear to the general public as to the precise start time of the storm. An afternoon start time of a well advertised blizzard should be enough to keep people off the roads. It will be interesting. Regardless, if things are open downtown in general I will leave at noon to beat any insanity that may loom in the roads. Roads are nuts on a good day around here!
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A nice way to visualize it is to think about the progression at different levels. Big storms have different low pressure centers at different levels. Think surface, 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb.

The most rapid intensification correlating with the height of the storm is the period when all low pressure centers are lining up on top of each other. Once they do it's referred to as vertically stacked. At this point the storm is fully matured and the good stuff is over and weakening begins.

Capturing is the final piece of the process when the closed upper level low at 500mb becomes one with low pressure underneath it. During the capture momentum of the surface and mid level lows typically stalls. Being in the right spot during the process is pretty amazing and we are going to be in the right spot this time.

The majority of our storms don't go through this process overhead. Many are disjointed and end up being 2 part storms. Think Jan 2011 and Feb 14. The upper level low lagged way behind the initial warm air advection precip.

We are about to experience a very special and relatively rare evolution for our latitude. Fasten your seat belt.

 

This is a great explanation, Bob.  As always, you break down the technical in a very easy-to-understand way.  Thank you.

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