PaEasternWX Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I sense people are going to get NAM'd ETA: Hot off the presses. ..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGHSUNDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAYMORNING.* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN NEWJERSEY...DELAWARE...AND MARYLAND`S UPPER EASTERN SHORE.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 16 INCHES IN THEVICINITY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...8 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERNSUBURBS OF PHILADELPHIA...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...AND CENTRALDELMARVA. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVERSOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ISEXPECTED DURING THE EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I told the people in my office that thought we'd get an inch that I expected 18-24. They were floored. I have a co-worker who insists that we might get 3 or 4 inches tops, that it's going to just fizzle out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 LWX went big. http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Notably, only through 7 PM Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The main thread is using January 1996 as the primary analogy. I wasn't living here then but was dealing with a bunch of people here for work and my recollection is the city was crippled for like a week Although, I seem to remember a shutdown right about the same time so I might be conflating them. Anyone remember how long the after effect was in 1996? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I hope Kocin writes today's WPC discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I told the people in my office that thought we'd get an inch that I expected 18-24. They were floored. It's baffling how fickle people can be.... they'll think some wacky Euro control run 10 days away means there's a blizzard on the way, while at other times when an actual blizzard is bearing down, they are totally shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 LOL NAM has 2 ft at DC 18z saturday and still raging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 DT's first guess is up. I'm thinking he's going to need to trim the southern edge in the next edition... https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1STGa.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Anyone notice each model run that Ravens analyzes is more amped than the prior? By tomorrow afternoon he's gonna run out of amps. lol, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Would guess QPF somewhere between this and the Euro is going to end up correct...probably closer to Euro. NAM is incredibly wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yay NAM - wouldn't be a potentially historic event around here without a good and proper crazy NAMing ahead of it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
66degreesnorth Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Where's all the sampling talk today? Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
66degreesnorth Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ah there we go ... Ravens for the win! Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The main thread is using January 1996 as the primary analogy. I wasn't living here then but was dealing with a bunch of people here for work and my recollection is the city was crippled for like a week Although, I seem to remember a shutdown right about the same time so I might be conflating them. Anyone remember how long the after effect was in 1996? Yes.. how much detail do you want? I can go on for pages. LOL The short of it: Crippled for a week. The blizzard shutdown was coming off a government shutdown. Feds closed Monday Tuesday Wednesday from the blizzard and clipper. Opened Thursday. Had to close Friday because of the third event. People panicked when the ETA showed 12"+ for the third event. (The clipper on Tuesday sent road crews back to primary roads as the city picked up more than 3".) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Where has DT been today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Good lord amped just can't help himself. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 DT's first guess is up. I'm thinking he's going to need to trim the southern edge in the next edition... And move that 18-24 up into southern pa I would think based off of every model run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 OMG. WNEW just used the H word. Still hoping for a MECS that my body can try to shovel. Did I mention that The Hill Of Doom (in Arlington VA) drops 90 feet in a block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Good lord amped just can't help himself. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk He's ridiculous. Frederick will do great. This whole damn forum will do great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm one of the biggest snow geese in town and I'm a little frightened by the super high model outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yes.. how much detail do you want? I can go on for pages. LOL The short of it: Crippled for a week. The blizzard shutdown was coming off a government shutdown. Feds closed Monday Tuesday Wednesday from the blizzard and clipper. Opened Thursday. Had to close Friday because of the third event. People panicked when the ETA showed 12"+ for the third event. (The clipper on Tuesday sent road crews back to primary roads as the city picked up more than 3".) Thanks. The storm hit Monday or over the weekend? I've never experienced more than 18 inches at a clip. The 2010 winter we got like 2 12-18 inch storms at a clip and I remember the volume of snow being bad, but in the end life got back to normal in a couple days because it was only a foot or so. I'm curious how bad things will be next week, especially given that I probably have to drive to SNE mid-week for a funeral. I missed the 2003 event. Was on a business trip and when I got back on Wednesday it was still a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wonder if DCA pulls a super high measurement this time...I mean they did report like 0.3 the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wonder if DCA pulls a super high measurement this time...I mean they did report like 0.3 the other day. Its weird, because I live in Arlington and am about 300 ft higher than DCA and consistently get 2-6" more snow than them in the biggies, yet I did not see snow accumulating - even on mulchy places the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Its weird, because I live in Arlington and am about 300 ft higher than DCA and consistently get 2-6" more snow than them in the biggies, yet I did not see snow accumulating - even on mulchy places the other day. Maybe they will inflate their totals by 2 times from now on. They may report 50 inches with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wonder if DCA pulls a super high measurement this time...I mean they did report like 0.3 the other day. Tenman would not allow that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm telling my relations and friends 16-22" with isolated up to 30" fwiw if people want another forecast. so ready for a snow covered columbia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Thanks. The storm hit Monday or over the weekend? I've never experienced more than 18 inches at a clip. The 2010 winter we got like 2 12-18 inch storms at a clip and I remember the volume of snow being bad, but in the end life got back to normal in a couple days because it was only a foot or so. I'm curious how bad things will be next week, especially given that I probably have to drive to SNE mid-week for a funeral. I missed the 2003 event. Was on a business trip and when I got back on Wednesday it was still a mess. We generally get back to normal quicker than in 1987 or 1996, but after the first storm in 2/2010, some neighborhoods never got plowed before the second one moved in two and a half days later. 1/96 started Saturday night around 10 pm and ended Monday late morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 My updated point and click forecast has 1 inch for Friday afternoon, 7-11 inches Friday night, then heavy snow Saturday, and snow Saturday night. Chance of snow Sunday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 After seeing the NAM and the pbp im all AMPED up. No temp issues on the NAM for us folks between 95 and the bay. I guess that guarentee wont happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 its not going to snow, guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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