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Pre-storm Banter Thread


WxUSAF

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I don't know about everyone else but the biggest reason I was pretty thrilled with the euro was it basically removed all fears of a Lucy. I know everyone has had that in the back of their mind since the euro blip yesterday. We have back to back runs with awesome solutions and we're really close in. Heck snow starts in just over 48 hours. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see things bump up a little over the next 48 hours. I'm kind of expecting it. I never believed the 30" stuff around DC. Too much against statistical odds. But 2.5" QPF over a wide area with some little jacks spread around? Sure. Totally reasonable. 

Well said Bob.

 

I think you also raise what I think is a legit possibility.............that this thing trends a bit north as we get closer.  Not sure if that's what you mean by "bump things up", but I am going to be curious to see if this happens.

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To paraphrase Geico, if you're a non-met/expert on a weather board, you nitpick everything. That's what you do.

 

but you aren't one of those people, you've been around for many years... you should know how this goes. 48 hours before, everyone will make lower initial calls, especially professional mets, and then increase as it gets closer and confidence grows.

 

Just because we see 20" on a modeled snow map, doesn't mean a professional needs to put that on a map two-days out. None of this is new, it happens every storm. 

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How is that "all in"?

 

Sorry, I'll back off on the Tony Pann stuff. Just not a big fan of his climate change-denying ways in general, and how he as treated this storm so far in particular. I guess for someone who at noon was saying that snow would end Saturday am, now going 12-18" is going "all in"

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Easy girl.  :P

 

You, I, and I think a couple of others were accused of bullying yesterday.

 

true. i just think some people enjoy stressing themselves out, being debbie downers and over analyzing every little thing before a storm. ill never understand it. 

 

It. Is. Going. To. Snow. 

 

please, just enjoy it. 

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I get pissed when I see people asking questions about mixing. 

I dont need to ask about mixing. I WILL mix for a time. I am a couple of miles from I 95, and we WILL mix for a few hours. If I can still get 19 inches, as advertised by most of the snow maps, I dont mind some mixing. I'll enjoy my snow and I will boisterously cheer on those who get 42 inches of snow.

 

Unless the winds on Saturday are only 15-25 mph for the most part, you really wont be able to tell the difference between 20 inches and 30 inches. In places where winds gust 40-45mph, the snow will be blown all over the place. How in the hell are you gonna measure it?

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Sorry, I'll back off on the Tony Pann stuff. Just not a big fan of his climate change-denying ways in general, and how he as treated this storm so far in particular. I guess for someone who at noon was saying that snow would end Saturday am, now going 12-18" is going "all in"

 

he can still go more "in" after his first "all in".  Maybe his first "all in" was just the tip

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That secondary upper low on the GGEM in the set-up trough says good things about phase being all snow northwest of an Ocean City to Norfolk line and it suggests a bonus 3-5 inches. This is why I am feeling bullish on amounts. The projected storm appears to strike a nearly perfect balance between ocean moisture feed and inland stability. The secondary upper low will rotate into the developing center of the storm and hold back inland encroachment of the Atlantic-arctic boundary which will probably get locked into one location. The heaviest snow bands will probably be 50-100 miles northwest of that boundary anchored by a pseudo-warm front that in days of yore would have been analyzed A2.

 

Back to banter ...

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