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Pre-storm Banter Thread


WxUSAF

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You have only asked that same question every time for every model run in the past week. I thought you were looking for a different answer.

I asked a couple times, not every model run. And today I just asked after Wes mentioned the GFS not showing it even down where he lives. There is a ignore button if you don't like it.

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I don't know about everyone else but the biggest reason I was pretty thrilled with the euro was it basically removed all fears of a Lucy. I know everyone has had that in the back of their mind since the euro blip yesterday. We have back to back runs with awesome solutions and we're really close in. Heck snow starts in just over 48 hours. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see things bump up a little over the next 48 hours. I'm kind of expecting it. I never believed the 30" stuff around DC. Too much against statistical odds. But 2.5" QPF over a wide area with some little jacks spread around? Sure. Totally reasonable. 

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I don't know about everyone else but the biggest reason I was pretty thrilled with the euro was it basically removed all fears of a Lucy. I know everyone has had that in the back of their mind since the euro blip yesterday. We have back to back runs with awesome solutions and we're really close in. Heck snow starts in just over 48 hours.

I wouldn't be surprised to see things bump up a little over the next 48 hours. I'm kind of expecting it. I never believed the 30" stuff around DC. Too much against statistical odds. But 2.5" QPF over a wide area with some little jacks spread around? Sure. Totally reasonable.

Good post. We forget that qpf is about the least reliable thing a model predicts, but we care about it most. The models are locked in when you consider the statistical noise.

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I don't know about everyone else but the biggest reason I was pretty thrilled with the euro was it basically removed all fears of a Lucy. I know everyone has had that in the back of their mind since the euro blip yesterday. We have back to back runs with awesome solutions and we're really close in. Heck snow starts in just over 48 hours. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see things bump up a little over the next 48 hours. I'm kind of expecting it. I never believed the 30" stuff around DC. Too much against statistical odds. But 2.5" QPF over a wide area with some little jacks spread around? Sure. Totally reasonable. 

PTI, but what is a "Lucy"?  Never seen that expression/allusion before.  

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