RichmondTarHeel Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I guess it's kinda like online dating. You see her profile and she's got the MySpace angles going on and she looks like a solid 10/10 and you get super excited. Then, after a day of talking to her you get her to send some pictures of herself over the phone. You realize she's not quite like her profile but still a solid 8/10. On date night, you walk into the restaurant to find out she was sending you pictures from high school and she's really a 6/10, but you've been on a dry spell and haven't even had a 1/10 since last winter so you take her home anyway. And you enjoy every last minute of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I propose anyone <500 posts or so gets 5-posted as soon as we go into storm mode in the future... or perhaps just shut out of the model/disco thread and relegated to banter only.Personally I'd be fine with just reading comments by red-tags and well-known good posters in the model/disco thread during storm mode. I don't need all the other commentary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I guess it's kinda like online dating. You see her profile and she's got the MySpace angles going on and she looks like a solid 10/10 and you get super excited. Then, after a day of talking to her you get her to send some pictures of herself over the phone. You realize she's not quite like her profile but still a solid 8/10. On date night, you walk into the restaurant to find out she was sending you pictures from high school and she's really a 6/10, but you've been on a dry spell and haven't even had a 1/10 since last winter so you take her home anyway. And you enjoy every last minute of it. 2 feet of snow and 6 hours of blizzard-force winds is a 6? you need to re-evaluate your standards, man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I can see why some (including me) are not thrilled with the uniform QPF decrease. Personally, and in general, I think more people are in favor of models increasing totals as an event approaches, rather than decreasing. Furthermore, the event is still 48 hours away from onset so the EURO smoothing out the totals is fine with me, but if the next run pulls back more QPF, no one in this forum will continue asking people what's wrong with them. Silly...nobody has received any snow yet so nothing has been lost.i assume you will complain if ground truth is a foot or so?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 i don't see why that would be a concern. Because of El Nino the STJ is more active and moisture feed should not be an issue. The Gulf and ATL won't shut off Agree 100%. I'm not worried at all about qpf. In fact, that should be the least of everyone's worries. People are gonna jack in the banding and get more than modeled because that's just what happens. Not only that, the anomalous PWAT indices for this storm are nuts for a January event. Euro did a nice job on the even distribution of things and I can easily see everyone across the board getting over 2" of qpf with some spots going up to 2.5-2.75" which in this setup would yield 2-3' easy. People need to relax. Beautiful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Onset shortly around 00Z Sat and going through 12Z Sun. Wow. Late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 2 feet of snow and 6 hours of blizzard-force winds is a 6? you need to re-evaluate your standards, man... True, I'd give it a solid 8/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I propose anyone <500 posts or so gets 5-posted as soon as we go into storm mode in the future... or perhaps just shut out of the model/disco thread and relegated to banter only. Personally I'd be fine with just reading comments by red-tags and well-known good posters in the model/disco thread during storm mode. I don't need all the other commentary. How about anyone who isn't a subscriber? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sparky will report 24 inches no matter what happens. So Westminster's place on the next snowmap is secure. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 My benchmark for success here is currently 1 foot. I really don't think anyone east of Parr's Ridge or south of the Hereford zone should ever "expect" more than that. Can it happen? Sure. Is it likely? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltimoreguy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I propose anyone <500 posts or so gets 5-posted as soon as we go into storm mode in the future... or perhaps just shut out of the model/disco thread and relegated to banter only. Personally I'd be fine with just reading comments by red-tags and well-known good posters in the model/disco thread during storm mode. I don't need all the other commentary. That presupposes that somone with 100s of terrible posts will have something worthwhile to say during storm mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I assume this random map is based on 10:1 ratios. I would think ratios will be slightly better for most especially later in the event. You'll get 2' out of this as usual in your location. Squeeze every last molecule of moisture out of the sky haha. JK Can;t wait to see your traditional deck pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I have .1 - so this might beat that at some point. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Quite possibly by 9pm this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That presupposes that somone with 100s of terrible posts will have something worthwhile to say during storm mode Gotta draw the line somewhere... I'm just tired of all the goofballs posting in the model/disco thread. That's what the banter thread is for. I don't know jack about analysis and can barely read the WxBell maps. That's why I generally keep my fingers off the keyboard in the model/disco thread and let the guys who know their stuff do their thing. There are two threads for a reason. In the model/disco thread, I want to read intelligent, insightful analysis... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Second call ... IAD 31.5" DCA 23.5" BWI 28.0" RIC 18.0" PHL 19.5" max 42" 50 miles west of IAD winds continue to look impressive, 45-55 mph gusts for most, 65-75 s NJ and DE. don't think very much of Jonas as a name for this, how about K-II (as in PD-II) with K for Knickerbocker, or maybe Washington-Obama, or Washington-Trump-Fiorina. Strapping in for the ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Quite possibly by 9pm this evening... That's right! Thanks for reminder . Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yes I'll ask this here. Does the Euro show any mixing between 95 and the bay near BWI. Not the Eastern Shore or southern md. I'm asking more about central AA county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 lots of anticipation - thread already eleven pages long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 i don't see why that would be a concern. Because of El Nino the STJ is more active and moisture feed should not be an issue. The Gulf and ATL won't shut off Well, IMHO - You are referencing seasonal, and/or climatic factors (El Nino) that specifically affect patterns. This is a discrete weather event (which I know, you know) hence, discussing El Nino (in relation to my comment) is not really of any relevance. I agree with you in that moisture feed is available and the current seasonal conditions/anomalies support a good moisture fetch from the GOM. However, the point I was making was more aimed at understanding the evolution of this particular event in regards to modelling, and how it would (in my book at least) be a slight bust to go from 30+ IMBY to say, 16. And I feel this way ONLY because there has been such good model consensus (overall) it would be pretty cool to see 30" in Tysons that the GFS et al picked up on at week lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's gonna snow...alot...I'm happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yes I'll ask this here. Does the Euro show any mixing between 95 and the bay near BWI. Not the Eastern Shore or southern md. I'm asking more about central AA county. 0c never gets close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 And i get PMs from some who complain that we are over moderating. you can't effing win I hate to admit this but i think you guys are doing a fine job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Silly...nobody has received any snow yet so nothing has been lost.i assume you will complain if ground truth is a foot or so?? Just having a discussion, brother! There's a difference between complaining and rationale discussion. I would love me a foot of snow, yes, you're right I was simply expressing that I would have liked to have seen the current EURO show a little more QPF. I understand it might ramp up totals again. No worries. You can call off the witch hunt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's gonna snow...alot...I'm happy I knew when you moved into the area it would be good luck at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 0c never gets close Thank you. I'll take the knowledge of knowing my area and a Euro/GFS combo showing no mixing at my place vs someone who guaranteed me to mix. Yes I hate sleet!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alcoholhelps Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I don't know about you folks, but I won't notice a difference between 24" and 30", at that point, it is all just too much to handle. So happy I have a snowblower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 MoCo/HoCo death band represent on ellinwood's map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yes I'll ask this here. Does the Euro show any mixing between 95 and the bay near BWI. Not the Eastern Shore or southern md. I'm asking more about central AA county. Almost all mix for AA county Ltrain house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 You'll get 2' out of this as usual in your location. Squeeze every last molecule of moisture out of the sky haha. JK Can;t wait to see your traditional deck pic LOL! I used to live on the coastal plain in Baltimore east of I 95. I never realized what a snow belt this part of the county can be sometimes. I guess with the terrain, relative proximity to the coast, and better ratios due to elevation it pukes snow down here in large coastals. Hoping for crazy banding that makes this one really historic. Good luck to all and I hope the precip shield expands further north so we can all enjoy a smack down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I don't know about you folks, but I won't notice a difference between 24" and 30", at that point, it is all just too much to handle. So happy I have a snowblower. TWSS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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