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Pre-storm Banter Thread


WxUSAF

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I guess it's kinda like online dating.  

 

You see her profile and she's got the MySpace angles going on and she looks like a solid 10/10 and you get super excited.  Then, after a day of talking to her you get her to send some pictures of herself over the phone.  You realize she's not quite like her profile but still a solid 8/10.  On date night, you walk into the restaurant to find out she was sending you pictures from high school and she's really a 6/10, but you've been on a dry spell and haven't even had a 1/10 since last winter so you take her home anyway.

 

And you enjoy every last minute of it.  

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I propose anyone <500 posts or so gets 5-posted as soon as we go into storm mode in the future... or perhaps just shut out of the model/disco thread and relegated to banter only.

Personally I'd be fine with just reading comments by red-tags and well-known good posters in the model/disco thread during storm mode.  I don't need all the other commentary.

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I guess it's kinda like online dating.  

 

You see her profile and she's got the MySpace angles going on and she looks like a solid 10/10 and you get super excited.  Then, after a day of talking to her you get her to send some pictures of herself over the phone.  You realize she's not quite like her profile but still a solid 8/10.  On date night, you walk into the restaurant to find out she was sending you pictures from high school and she's really a 6/10, but you've been on a dry spell and haven't even had a 1/10 since last winter so you take her home anyway.

 

And you enjoy every last minute of it.  

2 feet of snow and 6 hours of blizzard-force winds is a 6?  you need to re-evaluate your standards, man...

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I can see why some (including me) are not thrilled with the uniform QPF decrease. Personally, and in general, I think more people are in favor of models increasing totals as an event approaches, rather than decreasing.

Furthermore, the event is still 48 hours away from onset so the EURO smoothing out the totals is fine with me, but if the next run pulls back more QPF, no one in this forum will continue asking people what's wrong with them.

Silly...nobody has received any snow yet so nothing has been lost.i assume you will complain if ground truth is a foot or so??

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i don't see why that would be a concern.  Because of El Nino the STJ is more active and moisture feed should not be an issue.  The Gulf and ATL won't shut off

 

Agree 100%. I'm not worried at all about qpf. In fact, that should be the least of everyone's worries. People are gonna jack in the banding and get more than modeled because that's just what happens. Not only that, the anomalous PWAT indices for this storm are nuts for a January event. Euro did a nice job on the even distribution of things and I can easily see everyone across the board getting over 2" of qpf with some spots going up to 2.5-2.75" which in this setup would yield 2-3' easy. People need to relax. Beautiful run.

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I propose anyone <500 posts or so gets 5-posted as soon as we go into storm mode in the future... or perhaps just shut out of the model/disco thread and relegated to banter only.

Personally I'd be fine with just reading comments by red-tags and well-known good posters in the model/disco thread during storm mode.  I don't need all the other commentary.

How about anyone who isn't a subscriber?  

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I propose anyone <500 posts or so gets 5-posted as soon as we go into storm mode in the future... or perhaps just shut out of the model/disco thread and relegated to banter only.

Personally I'd be fine with just reading comments by red-tags and well-known good posters in the model/disco thread during storm mode.  I don't need all the other commentary.

 

That presupposes that somone with 100s of terrible posts will have something worthwhile to say during storm mode

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That presupposes that somone with 100s of terrible posts will have something worthwhile to say during storm mode

 

Gotta draw the line somewhere... I'm just tired of all the goofballs posting in the model/disco thread.  That's what the banter thread is for.  I don't know jack about analysis and can barely read the WxBell maps.  That's why I generally keep my fingers off the keyboard in the model/disco thread and let the guys who know their stuff do their thing.  There are two threads for a reason.

In the model/disco thread, I want to read intelligent, insightful analysis...

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Second call ...

 

IAD 31.5"

DCA 23.5"

BWI 28.0"

RIC 18.0"

PHL 19.5"

max 42" 50 miles west of IAD

 

winds continue to look impressive, 45-55 mph gusts for most, 65-75 s NJ and DE.

 

don't think very much of Jonas as a name for this, how about K-II (as in PD-II) with K for Knickerbocker, or maybe Washington-Obama, or Washington-Trump-Fiorina.

 

:)

 

Strapping in for the ride

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i don't see why that would be a concern.  Because of El Nino the STJ is more active and moisture feed should not be an issue.  The Gulf and ATL won't shut off

Well, IMHO -

 

You are referencing seasonal, and/or climatic factors (El Nino) that specifically affect patterns. This is a discrete weather event (which I know, you know) hence, discussing El Nino (in relation to my comment) is not really of any relevance. 

 

I agree with you in that moisture feed is available and the current seasonal conditions/anomalies support a good moisture fetch from the GOM. However, the point I was making was more aimed at understanding the evolution of this particular event in regards to modelling, and how it would (in my book at least) be a slight bust to go from 30+ IMBY to say, 16.

 

And I feel this way ONLY because there has been such good model consensus (overall) it would be pretty cool to see 30" in Tysons that the GFS et al picked up on at week lead. 

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Silly...nobody has received any snow yet so nothing has been lost.i assume you will complain if ground truth is a foot or so??

Just having a discussion, brother! There's a difference between complaining and rationale discussion. I would love me a foot of snow, yes, you're right :)

 

I was simply expressing that I would have liked to have seen the current EURO show a little more QPF. I understand it might ramp up totals again. No worries. You can call off the witch hunt!

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You'll get 2' out of this as usual in your location. Squeeze every last molecule of moisture out of the sky haha. JK Can;t wait to see your traditional deck pic :)

LOL! I used to live on the coastal plain in Baltimore east of I 95. I never realized what a snow belt this part of the county can be sometimes. I guess with the terrain, relative proximity to the coast, and better ratios due to elevation it pukes snow down here in large coastals. Hoping for crazy banding that makes this one really historic. Good luck to all and I hope the precip shield expands further north so we can all enjoy a smack down!
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