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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #3 - No Banter


stormtracker

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Stop worrying. Corridor always dances with mixing to go after high totals. It will be what it will be.

Not having looked at the latest NAM soundings yet, I would always suspect on at least some mixing with or transfer to a period of sleet along and east of 95. Still, those UVVs early Sat may be enough to keep the column below 0°C during the time we'd be most vulnerable.

My hunch is even with a period of mix/transition, we'd still be talking about 12" or so beforehand with another 8-12" afterwards with the prolonged deformation. A crust within the snowpack, like that never happens here along and east of 95 :)

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NAM being amped was amazing Low Tucked in near OCMD Amazing run. better then 6z !

Cant get whole run but easily 3 feet area wide as at 84 its still ripping

It's the nam. Tomorrow I think it'll be worth while to look at it for convective banding potential.
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I think your right, the 850 zero line stayed way south on this run of NAM, atleast according to the Tropicaltidbits map.

Someone else mentioned some type of warm layer somewhere aloft (and the warm chesapeake bay) as something the models might not be catching--So even with below-freezing surface temps, our totals might suffer (still will probably get 12" but maybe not 20" if it turns out this way). Hope that isn't the case...
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This is a life threatening storm if all pans out. Serious threats for all. Blizzard of course but full moon with bombing system into blocking high = strong threat for prolonged tidal flooding, beach erosion, damage etc from Delmarva to MA. Historically it looks like the nor'easter of 92 and 96.

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Wow NAM has 2"+ QPF area wide with 2.5" just NW of 95 with more to come.  3" out near Faq/Loudoun county border.  More to come still.  It is the NAM though.

Except this time, the Euro, GFS (operational and Para), CMC, and JMA all agree so unlike every other storm I can think of, we probably don't need that qualifier.

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This is a life threatening storm if all pans out. Serious threats for all. Blizzard of course but full moon with bombing system into blocking high = strong threat for prolonged tidal flooding, beach erosion, damage etc from Delmarva to MA. Historically it looks like the nor'easter of 92 and 96.

I agree, but maybe more like one of the March monsters of old in light of the wind and beach damage.

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the entire MA is under a convective band, and that goes for the Euro

I think there's a very good chance of some wicked Bandung and thunder. Still too early to nail down where. As Wes was saying last night on the show, it's often just north of a dry slot in the deform band.

Someone's going to see some crazy snow rates on Saturday.

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I agree, but maybe more like one of the March monsters of old in light of the wind and beach damage.

Even though I was only 14 in 92' I remember the storm sitting offshore for 3 days with gusts to hurricane force. 15 foot storm tide on the north shore of Long Island. Full moon as well. This looks eerily similar.

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Not having looked at the latest NAM soundings yet, I would always suspect on at least some mixing with or transfer to a period of sleet along and east of 95. Still, those UVVs early Sat may be enough to keep the column below 0°C during the time we'd be most vulnerable.

My hunch is even with a period of mix/transition, we'd still be talking about 12" or so beforehand with another 8-12" afterwards with the prolonged deformation. A crust within the snowpack, like that never happens here along and east of 95 :)

 

93 was the last storm that i remember literally being able to walk on top of the snow.  we had a foot or more, then about 6 hours of sleet/freezing rain, followed by a few inches at the end.

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This is a life threatening storm if all pans out. Serious threats for all. Blizzard of course but full moon with bombing system into blocking high = strong threat for prolonged tidal flooding, beach erosion, damage etc from Delmarva to MA. Historically it looks like the nor'easter of 92 and 96.

 

:o

 

Always great to see your posts.. thanks for them

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Even though I was only 14 in 92' I remember the storm sitting offshore for 3 days with gusts to hurricane force. 15 foot storm tide on the north shore of Long Island. Full moon as well. This looks eerily similar.

Wasn't that '93?

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Are you looking at the Para on WxBell? It still shows the 00z run from the 19th.

Crap! 2 days in a row. Nav page updated to the 20th but panels are the 19th. It's weird what us going on there. Blank panels showing the latest run and then repopulates with the old run. I'm going to delete my posts

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Crap! 2 days in a row. Nav page updated to the 20th but panels are the 19th. It's weird what us going on there. Blank panels showing the latest run and then repopulates with the old run. I'm going to delete my posts

 

SV is waiting on data as opposed to showing old data, which gives me hope maybe it will come in this morning...

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93 was the last storm that i remember literally being able to walk on top of the snow. we had a foot or more, then about 6 hours of sleet/freezing rain, followed by a few inches at the end.

I'm sure within the obs thread we'll be posting images of the 88D's CC (correlation coefficient) if/when the mix zone gets close. That product works like a charm.

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DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ052>057-505-506-
202315-
/O.NEW.KLWX.BZ.A.0001.160122T1700Z-160124T1100Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
1013 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE
95...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW.

* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...STRONGEST WINDS...AND POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING THE
HEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VISIBILITY WILL
BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 20S MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

USE THIS ADVANCE NOTICE TO PLAN AHEAD! ADJUST TRAVEL PLANS...AND
PLANNED ACTIVITIES. STOCK UP ON NECESSITIES. MAKE PLANS FOR
ELDERLY FAMILY AND THOSE MOST AT RISK. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS. USE THIS TIME TO
MINIMIZE IMPACT ON YOU...YOUR FAMILY...AND YOUR COMMUNITY.

&&

$

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