clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Holy god. The para and nam are ridiculous. They are basically in line with last nights euro. Maybe a little n with the heaviest stuff. This is going to be one for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The NAM is a short term model skilled for certain types of synoptic situations. What is does at the end of its range for a huge snowstorm doesn't mean a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Stop worrying. Corridor always dances with mixing to go after high totals. It will be what it will be. Not having looked at the latest NAM soundings yet, I would always suspect on at least some mixing with or transfer to a period of sleet along and east of 95. Still, those UVVs early Sat may be enough to keep the column below 0°C during the time we'd be most vulnerable. My hunch is even with a period of mix/transition, we'd still be talking about 12" or so beforehand with another 8-12" afterwards with the prolonged deformation. A crust within the snowpack, like that never happens here along and east of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM being amped was amazing Low Tucked in near OCMD Amazing run. better then 6z ! Cant get whole run but easily 3 feet area wide as at 84 its still ripping It's the nam. Tomorrow I think it'll be worth while to look at it for convective banding potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 i dont know how we can ever start a post for a 1-3 inch clipper ever again no laughs yesterday and apparently none today, but keep trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The NAM is a short term model skilled for certain types of synoptic situations. What is does at the end of its range for a huge snowstorm doesn't mean a whole lot. True... still nice to look at though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think your right, the 850 zero line stayed way south on this run of NAM, atleast according to the Tropicaltidbits map.Someone else mentioned some type of warm layer somewhere aloft (and the warm chesapeake bay) as something the models might not be catching--So even with below-freezing surface temps, our totals might suffer (still will probably get 12" but maybe not 20" if it turns out this way). Hope that isn't the case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wow NAM has 2"+ QPF area wide with 2.5" just NW of 95 with more to come. 3" out near Faq/Loudoun county border. More to come still. It is the NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think your right, the 850 zero line stayed way south on this run of NAM, atleast according to the Tropicaltidbits map. here you go. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's the nam. Tomorrow I think it'll be worth while to look at it for convective banding potential. the entire MA is under a convective band, and that goes for the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is a life threatening storm if all pans out. Serious threats for all. Blizzard of course but full moon with bombing system into blocking high = strong threat for prolonged tidal flooding, beach erosion, damage etc from Delmarva to MA. Historically it looks like the nor'easter of 92 and 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 True... still nice to look at though I wouldn't care if it had a low in western PA. It is not meant to be used for a huge event at the end of its range. That is not the purpose of the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wow NAM has 2"+ QPF area wide with 2.5" just NW of 95 with more to come. 3" out near Faq/Loudoun county border. More to come still. It is the NAM though. Except this time, the Euro, GFS (operational and Para), CMC, and JMA all agree so unlike every other storm I can think of, we probably don't need that qualifier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is a life threatening storm if all pans out. Serious threats for all. Blizzard of course but full moon with bombing system into blocking high = strong threat for prolonged tidal flooding, beach erosion, damage etc from Delmarva to MA. Historically it looks like the nor'easter of 92 and 96. I agree, but maybe more like one of the March monsters of old in light of the wind and beach damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the entire MA is under a convective band, and that goes for the EuroI think there's a very good chance of some wicked Bandung and thunder. Still too early to nail down where. As Wes was saying last night on the show, it's often just north of a dry slot in the deform band. Someone's going to see some crazy snow rates on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I agree, but maybe more like one of the March monsters of old in light of the wind and beach damage. Even though I was only 14 in 92' I remember the storm sitting offshore for 3 days with gusts to hurricane force. 15 foot storm tide on the north shore of Long Island. Full moon as well. This looks eerily similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not having looked at the latest NAM soundings yet, I would always suspect on at least some mixing with or transfer to a period of sleet along and east of 95. Still, those UVVs early Sat may be enough to keep the column below 0°C during the time we'd be most vulnerable. My hunch is even with a period of mix/transition, we'd still be talking about 12" or so beforehand with another 8-12" afterwards with the prolonged deformation. A crust within the snowpack, like that never happens here along and east of 95 93 was the last storm that i remember literally being able to walk on top of the snow. we had a foot or more, then about 6 hours of sleet/freezing rain, followed by a few inches at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is a life threatening storm if all pans out. Serious threats for all. Blizzard of course but full moon with bombing system into blocking high = strong threat for prolonged tidal flooding, beach erosion, damage etc from Delmarva to MA. Historically it looks like the nor'easter of 92 and 96. Always great to see your posts.. thanks for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Even though I was only 14 in 92' I remember the storm sitting offshore for 3 days with gusts to hurricane force. 15 foot storm tide on the north shore of Long Island. Full moon as well. This looks eerily similar. Wasn't that '93? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 USA_VVEL_700mb_072.gif That's about as good as it gets right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Are you looking at the Para on WxBell? It still shows the 00z run from the 19th. Crap! 2 days in a row. Nav page updated to the 20th but panels are the 19th. It's weird what us going on there. Blank panels showing the latest run and then repopulates with the old run. I'm going to delete my posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Crap! 2 days in a row. Nav page updated to the 20th but panels are the 19th. It's weird what us going on there. Blank panels showing the latest run and then repopulates with the old run. I'm going to delete my posts SV is waiting on data as opposed to showing old data, which gives me hope maybe it will come in this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM Text: BWI - http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt DCA - http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kdca.txt IAD - http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kiad.txt MTN - http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kmtn.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 They did pull the Blizzard Watch out for the Metro areas and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 93 was the last storm that i remember literally being able to walk on top of the snow. we had a foot or more, then about 6 hours of sleet/freezing rain, followed by a few inches at the end. I'm sure within the obs thread we'll be posting images of the 88D's CC (correlation coefficient) if/when the mix zone gets close. That product works like a charm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ052>057-505-506-202315-/O.NEW.KLWX.BZ.A.0001.160122T1700Z-160124T1100Z/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-1013 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATESATURDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLEFRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE95...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW.* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIESTSNOW...STRONGEST WINDS...AND POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONSEXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUSCONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL ISEXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING THEHEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VISIBILITY WILLBE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILLINCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH FRIDAYNIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 20S MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER 20S TOLOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...USE THIS ADVANCE NOTICE TO PLAN AHEAD! ADJUST TRAVEL PLANS...ANDPLANNED ACTIVITIES. STOCK UP ON NECESSITIES. MAKE PLANS FORELDERLY FAMILY AND THOSE MOST AT RISK. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OFPOWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS. USE THIS TIME TOMINIMIZE IMPACT ON YOU...YOUR FAMILY...AND YOUR COMMUNITY.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Always great to see your posts.. thanks for them Love you guys and being on here. A lot of expertise in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM Text: BWI - http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt DCA - http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kdca.txt IAD - http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kiad.txt MTN - http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kmtn.txt Nice 850s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wasn't that '93? 93 was the March superstorm. 92 was the classic nor'easter. It was all rain in NYC...buried N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 BLIZZARD WATCH :O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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