eurojosh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Snowing by 18z Friday in DC per NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nam has the closed contour at 51 Precip field is EXPL Run away, run away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If you had to lean on winter storm watches or blizzard watches for the metro area, which would you take? You think we get enough wind? I would hedge blizzard given the degree of impact expected, even if the criteria weren't quite there. The thing to consider though is the highest winds will be east of 95 where the snow water content will be higher (with a higher likelihood of sleet before deformation bands). Still, given that the whole metro region will likely have a fairly long period of strong gusty northerly winds and drier snow with the deformation bands as the low bombs offshore and begins to pull away, I would think just going with a blizzard from the get-go could work (would cut down on confusion). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 closed h5 low in NE AL at 57 ETA: NW GA at 60 still closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 60 Way amped About to be a destroyer run RH is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 63 transfer just about complete... 1002mb SLP just south of ILM 66 transfer complete... looks to be a 998mb SLP right by or over HSE 69 996mb SLP just east of HSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 63 1002 MB headed into Eastern NCHeavy precip expanding all over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 72 just east of ORF at 994mb SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 OH MY GOD NAM ! http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRFEAST_12z/wrfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 RIPPAGE at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 DC well into the 20"s by noon Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanW Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wow - NAM has serious icing on the way for North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM 2'+ most of W VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM just said all in apparently. Absolutely crippling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seems like forecasters are expecting more mixing for the I-95 corridor...Might be harder to get above a foot. Any chance this will change? (They're talking like the corridor won't get to the 20" mark!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Approaching 3' for western burbs (e.g. IAD) by evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM at extended is pron... tries for 3" p/h rates at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanW Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 992 mb at the center @ 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 More to come after end of run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's still snowing at hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seems like forecasters are expecting more mixing for the I-95 corridor...Might be harder to get above a foot. Any chance this will change? (They're talking like the corridor won't get to the 20" mark!) Stop worrying. Corridor always dances with mixing to go after high totals. It will be what it will be. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdcrob Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Question for pros/people who know... At what point do you chuck what you believe is possible based on history? Is there ANY combination of model runs that would convince you to "forecast a record"? I'd guess we're getting close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 slow moving destroyer of all things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM being amped was amazing Low Tucked in near OCMD Amazing run. better then 6z !Cant get whole run but easily 3 feet area wide as at 84 its still ripping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seems like forecasters are expecting more mixing for the I-95 corridor...Might be harder to get above a foot. Any chance this will change? (They're talking like the corridor won't get to the 20" mark!) I think forecasters are just hedging a bit, as far I know most models have clean thermal profiles for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpljr77 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Is there even this much liquid in the air to begin with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 USA_VVEL_700mb_072.gif Wedges? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think forecasters are just hedging a bit, as far I know most models have clean thermal profiles for the cities. I think your right, the 850 zero line stayed way south on this run of NAM, atleast according to the Tropicaltidbits map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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