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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #3 - No Banter


stormtracker

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If you had to lean on winter storm watches or blizzard watches for the metro area, which would you take? You think we get enough wind?

I would hedge blizzard given the degree of impact expected, even if the criteria weren't quite there. The thing to consider though is the highest winds will be east of 95 where the snow water content will be higher (with a higher likelihood of sleet before deformation bands).

Still, given that the whole metro region will likely have a fairly long period of strong gusty northerly winds and drier snow with the deformation bands as the low bombs offshore and begins to pull away, I would think just going with a blizzard from the get-go could work (would cut down on confusion).

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Seems like forecasters are expecting more mixing for the I-95 corridor...Might be harder to get above a foot. Any chance this will change? (They're talking like the corridor won't get to the 20" mark!)

Stop worrying. Corridor always dances with mixing to go after high totals. It will be what it will be.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Question for pros/people who know...

 

At what point do you chuck what you believe is possible based on history?  Is there ANY combination of model runs that would convince you to "forecast a record"?

 

I'd guess we're getting close?

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